Strasbourg MP Election (last before 2017 Presidential): No Debate ? Right has Pol. Reserves, Left No

*Strasbourg/Angelo Marcopolo/- Despite the big Symbolic Interest of the Last Election to the French National Assembly before the Crucial 2017 Presidential Elections, in a "European Capital" as Strasbourg, (Host of CoE, EU Parliament's Plenaries, ECHR, EU Ombudsman, Schengen, EuroCorps, etc), at €uroZone's Core Borderline Area between France and Germany, nevertheless, for the forthcoming Final Vote at the Decisive 2nd Round for the Choice of a New MP to represent the City's Biggest Part, from DownTown Centre, including its European Quarter, up to its Western Suburbs, (i.e. with a Sociologicaly "Mixte" Population of all kinds), Not even the Slightest Public Debate wasn't, astonishingly, scheduled at all, until now, just a Few Days before Sunday's Vote !

 

Even more :  The Challenger Candidate of mainstream Opposition Party "the Republicans", Jean-Emmanuel Robert, (Center-Right), Accused, in his Speech at a Public Meeting Tonight, the Socialist Frontrunner Eric Elkouby, to have Explicitly "Refused" to Debate with him at the Media, and this was apparently Confirmed, at least for the Time being.

Significantly,  Robert has engaged, from the Start, a Campaign Focused on main "Hot" National Political Issues, (such as Unemployment, Economy and Taxes, Security Problems, Education, etc),  Revendicating a Struggle for "Values, and Not Clientelism", and Denouncing an alleged "Failure" that "our European Neighbours also witness", as he stressed, calling to Prepare "a New hope" towards a much "Needed  (Political) Alternace" for 2017.

While, on the Contrary, Elkouby obviously Focused on his Personal "Local Experience" of that particular Strasbourg's Constituency, for which he served as a Substitute to former Socialist MP Jung, who resigned for Health reasons, as well as Deputy Mayor to the City, (where also Robert serves as Municipal Counselor), and on his own "Dynamism and Passion" also  for his alleged "Contacts" with the Local Population.

But, a great part of that was Fustigated by Robert, who Strongly Denounced the Fact that People like Elkouby "Cumulated", at the Same Time, Too Many Political Mandatess, such as, f.ex., Deputy Mayor responsible for 3 Quarters and a Policy, EuroMetropolitan Counselor, Department's Counselor, MP's Substitute, Parliamentary Assistant, etc.: - "Politicians are Not  Supermen gifted with Ubiquity !", he exclaimed, making an indirect Hint to the 2 Anti-Bureaucratic "Citizens" Movements which got much More than 5% in the First Round, (See Infra).

This hadn't hindered Elkouby to Top the List of Candidates at the First Round, with More than 30% of the Votes, while Robert arrived 2nd, with almost 20%, (i.e. more than -10% Less). Such an Initial Result was, more or less Expected, since that particular Constituency of Strasbourg had been Firmly Held, for Many Years, succesively by 2 Socialist MPs, former Mayor, MEP and Minister Catherine Trautman, and Armand Jung, before being Extended, since Back on 2012, from the City's DownTown and European Quarters, up to its Western Suburbs, considered to be Traditionaly Closer to the PS. In consequence, it was Today thought to be "Difficult" for the Right side of the Political Spectrum, and almost "given" to the Socialists.

But a Big Surprise emerged at the Aftermath of that 1st Round : Almost All the Traditional Allies of the Socialists Refused to Back them at the Crucial 2nd Round of Next Sunday, arguying various Reasons of National Politics ! On the Contrary, the Republican Candidate received the Explicit Support of some other Center-Right Candidates, and could, Probably, Count also on the Votes of at least a Notable Part of almost All Other Movements situated at the Right Side of the Political Forum. In Consequence, Elkouby (PS) seems to be quite Isolated, Deprived of any Political Reserve for the Final Round, while, on the Contrary, Robert (Republicans) seems to have a quite Important Potential Reserve of Votes around him, if he Succeeds to Attract them :

 
Indeed, Strasbourg's "Greens" (who got Near to 10% of the Votes : 9,26%, i.e. More than in the Past), in a Writen Statement signed by their Local Leaders, clearly Refused to Back the Socialist Candidate at the 2nd Round, Accusing the current PS Government to have "Abandoned its Major Commitments and Breached the Contract concluded with the Citizens", f.ex. with a Recent, Controversial Laws "on Work" and  "on Intelligence-gathering", as well as with various other Decisions on "Car Highways", "Ecologic Transition", a Nuclear Reactor at nearby "Fessenheim" Village (near the Franco-German Borders),, the "Taxes on Heavy Lorries", "BioDiversity", "even on the Implementation of the Commitments (taken by many Member States) at the (International, UNO's Conference on Climate Change) COP 21", Last December 2015, in Paris, (etc).

However, for the moment, at least those City "Green" Leaders, didn't appear yet ready to Follow the Recent Trend of Strasbourg Region's "Green" Leaders, as former MEP Sandrine Belier, during the December 2015 Elections to the new "Big East" Region, (See : http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/franceregionelelectionsrepublicanswithgreensorfnrightistsforstrasbourg.html + http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/sarkozyautonomousalternativewinsregions.html ), and/or of Neighbouring Baden-Wurttemberg Länder President Winfried Kretschmann's preference, (particularly after the latest, March 2016 Regional Elections at nearby Germany), to conclude a brand New Coalition Agreement among "Greens" and ChristianDemocrats/EPP, (Comp., already, President Kretschmann's relevant Statements to "Eurofora" as early as back on 2010 and 2011, as welll as, more recently, on 2013 and 2016, at : ....). But various Topical Issues, such as, f.ex., the Controversial Legalisation of Genetic Manipulations on Human Embryos since 2013 in France, and/or the Elimination of several key "Green Areas", which used to be Full of Big Trees aged Dozens of Years, in Strasbourg City, almost at the Same Time, (including inside the Constituency currently Voting : F.ex. at the "HautePierre" Suburb, etc), replaced by "Concrete", as also the Center-Right Opposition Denounced, could, normaly, have offered some Interesting areas for Convergence also between Strasbourg's "Greens" and ChristianDemocrats/EPP, (as f.ex. in Germany in the Past and Recently), etc.

+ Meanwhile, even another, more Traditional Ally of the Socialists : the Communists and MEP Melanchon's "Front of the Left", who got about 4% of the Votes (See Infra), clearly Refused to Back the Candidate of the PS, also with a Written Statement which Leaves their Voters "Free to Choose" what  they would do  at the 2nd Round, after a 1st which "Revealed a Profound Challenge (MisTrust) vis a vis the Institutions, which are Exhausted". - "If the Socialist Candidate wants to get their Vote, it's up to himm to clearly take a stand for the Retreat of that (Controversial) Law" on Work relations, "the End of the State of Emergency, and the Augmentatio of Wages", they provocatively ask in fine... After that, it's certainly Not the "Leftists", (who got Only 1,2 of the Votes), that might, eventualy, Support the PS Candidate, since they notoriously wish to be seen as located at the Left side of the PC, and just declared that they feel Not Concerned by that 2nd Round, (UPDATED). This practicaly leaves PS' Elkouby Alone, except if he seeks to get at least the Turks' Communautarist Local Group, (which got Only 2,9%, and Risks to be Submerged, at the 2nd Round, when  Much More Participants are due to Enter the Game). But even them, finaly said that they call to Vote only "Blanc" at the 2nd Round : Something which risks to Cost to the Socialists a few Western Suburbs... (UPDATED).

Significant of such a Rare Negative Ambiance around the Socialists Today, even regarding those who Used to be their Former Allies in th Past, is also the Unprecedented Fact that PS' Offices in Strasbourg were Covered overNight with Hostile Graffiti at their Windows, by an Unknown and Difficult to Recognize Group of Activists, Grossly Accusing them to be "Traitors", "Liars",  "Corrupted", "Bastards" (sic), etc. When that move was Criticized by  other Socialist Politicians at the Internet, they got a lot of mostly Negative Reactions by several People, mainly Accusing them to "Deny Democracy", f.ex. by deciding to use a Controversial Mechanism, (usualy Condemned by the PS itsel in the Past, when it was in Opposition), which allows for a  Government to Force the Adoption of an UnPopular Draft Bill, even withOut substantial Debate, unless Dissidents Vote, with an Absolute Majority, a Motion to Censor the Currently Governing PS.

On the Contrary, the "Republican" (Center-Right) Candidate, already received a crystal-clear Expression of Support by the "Centrist" Candidate, who got almost 8 % of the Votes (7,64%), called to "Oppose, net Sunday, the Candidate of a (National) .. Policy which pushes France to Bankruptcy", as he said, and was even Present at Robert's Meeting Tonight. + Moreover, despite the fact that the Rightist Candidate of the "National Front", (who got More than 10 % of the Votes : 10,44%), does Not Back Explicitly the "Republican" Finalist, but leaves his Voters "Free", nevertheless at least a more or less Notable Part of "FN"'s Voters should, normaly, Vote for the Only remaining Candidate of the Right side of the Political Spectrum, at the forthcoming 2nd and Final Round. ++ Added to that, also an Independent Candidate of the Right, d'Andlau, who managed to get almost 6 % of the Votes by Campaigning on Issues often situated at the Right side of Robert, (F.ex., Focusing, on "Immigration" Problems, against "InSecurity" or "Communautarism", and for "National Unity", Traditional Values of "Alsace" Region, etc), should, normaly, stand by him at the 2nd Round, (or, at least, most of his Voters would do so). Last, but not least, even some among the Regionalists of "Unser Land" ("Our Land", of Alsace), who gathered almost 4% of the Votes (3,82%), and are usualy located at the Right side of the Political Spectrum, should, normaly, Vote for the "Republican" Candidate now, (given also Robert's critical view on the recent Controversial Territorial Reform).

  => So that, in Fact, Robert, (a Social Gaullist, initialy Influenced by the late Philippe Seguin, as he reminded : An Important Politician of the Right, who had become also President of the Parliament and of the powerful Court of Accounts, as well as  of the Main Party of the Right, and Minister, MP, etc), has an Important Potential Reserve of Votes for the 2nd and Final Round of the Election, which might reach a Maximum of about + 28 % More Votes, i.e. theoreticaly Totaling almost 47% - 48% Together with his own Voters, (Comp. Supra).

I.e. much More than the 30% obtained by the Socialist Candidate Elkouby, (who has almost Nobody else to Rely on, as an eventual Ally for the Final Round : Comp. Supra).

This theoretical Potential represents a Maximal Difference of about 17%-18% Between the two Frontrunner Candidates, normaly in favor of the Right side of the Political Spectrum, according to the Choices made by Strasbourg's People from the 1st Round, (Comp. Supra), and could prove Decisive for the Final Result of this Election, even if Just a Part of those Supplementary Voters gather around Robert.

It was perfectly well seen also by the Experienced Departemental Chief of the "Republican" Party at Strasbourg's Lower Rhine area, MP Laurent Furst, who, Speaking to "Eurofora", stressed that, indeed, whatever choices might have made all those Voters at the 1st Round, now, at the Decisive Final moment, they should Gather around the only remaining Candidate who represents main Values near to their Beliefs, i.e. Robert, in order to Mark in Strasbourg that "First Ray of Light for the Political Alternance (in the forthcoming, Crucial 2017 Presidential and Legislative Elections), "that France Needs", as he said, (adding earlier that also several Other Experienced Politicians had Examined Strasbourg's Data and concluded that it is perfectly "Feasible").

- Robert, speaking to "Eurofora", confirmed his Willingness to "Absolutely" make any adequate conciliatory move towards "all those People (of Strasbourg) who, otherwise, risk to not be Represented" in the National Assembly.

An Additional Factor, in this regard, might, eventualy, be the Personality of the Substitutes chosen to accompagny the 2 Frontrunner Candidates : Robert is seconded by Maritchu Rall, engaged in Caritative Associations and CoE's Rapporteur for the Human Rights' Committee of its International NGO's (INGOS), well known at the PanEuropean Organisation, and whose Latest, 2016 Report Focuses on current "Poverty" Issues throughout all CoE's 48 Member Countries, as she told "Eurofora".

Elkouby has chosen as Substitute Laurence Noss, a Local SME Trade Businesswoman from Lille, selling near the Touristic sector of DownTown Strasbourg, various Decorative items Imported from India.

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But, in Addition to the above mentioned Threat to Exclude any Debate, (Comp. Supra), this Exceptional Strasbourg's Election may Suffer most of all by a Record-High Abstention, observed at the 1st Round, of almost 78% of the Registered Voters, so that the Total of the valid Votes casted didn't represent,  for All Parties, taken Together, no more than just 21 % of those able to Vote (See Graphic)  !

A real Problem, that an Unprecedented Emergence of various New Citizens/Civil Society Movements, Tried to Solve this Time, from the 1st Round, offering several Original Ideas, some of which, astonishingly, Succeeded to Attract More Voters than expected, (See Infra) :

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"Citizens'/Civil Society" Movements bypass the Left !
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    Meanwhile, another Exceptional Original Characteristic of this Symbolic Value Election at Strasbourg's European Capital, is also the Unusual Fact, that, for the 1st Time in History, new Independent Citizens/Civil Society Movements, generaly Critical against Established Parties and Eager to Claim various Direct Democracy/Participation ideas, got, all Together, a Total of 5,26 %, i.e. even More than all the Local Left (Communists/Front of the Left) and Leftists : Only 5,1 %. all in all.

    Those who Won the Biggest part of those Votes, the New Movement called "My Voice" with 4,25% alone, support a Random Choice of Candidates by "Drawing of Lots", and promisses "Collective Decisions" on "what our MP will Vote ... on All Draft Bills" in the National Assembly. But, at the same time, they Luimit that Only to "Trained" (?) Candidates, for the Whole "Duration of their Mandates", i.e. withOut Rotation, (Contarry, f.ex. to Various Other Rotating Choices recently proposed by some Different Movements in Germany, Italy, the USA, etc., some of which were Discussed in a previous CoE's "Forum of Democracy", Focusing in New Forms and E-Technologies, 2 Years ago in Strasbourg : Comp. f.ex. : ....).

    On the Contrary, those who got the Smallest part of the Votes, were the so-called "Leftists", who Claimed to "Fight for Workers", but didn't Find any other Candidate than an Immigrant "Worker at the Car Industry", Seconded by a Substitute of French Origin with a High Quality Job at the Public Sector as "Professor - Researcher"... Thus, the former Party of Famous Arlette Laguiller, who usually got More than 4% in Strasbourg (bypassing the Communists), Now Fell Down to Only 1,2%,  becoming the Smallest of All !  As for the Communists, Together with all  the "Front of the Left", (linked to Dissident former Socialist MEP Melenchon), who had also Chosen 2 Foreign Origin Candidates, but the No 1 from anOther European Country), they scored almost 4%, (in fact :  3,82%, i.e. something rather Fair, given their Traditionaly Lower presence in Strasbourg than Nation-wide).

    Last, a Turkish Communautarist Candidate, (the Only one to be obviously Linked to an Ethnic/Religious local Lobby), got Only 2,9%  at the First (and Last for him) Round. I.e. just Before the French Press reveals, in a Publication made 2 Days Later, a Judicial Affair concerning 7 Jihadists from Strasbourg , who had Travelled to Turkey and were Recruited by ISIL' Deadly Terrorists and atrocious BeHeaders in Syria/Iraq, at least 2 of whom were of Turkish origin, including one among the Armed Gunmen who Attacked and Killed more than a Hundred of Innocent Civilian People last November 2015 in Paris : Something which, obviously, wouldn't give any Chance to such Ethnic/Religion-based Candidates, who ask to "Augment the Influence of Suburbs" (sic !), and characteristicaly getting Most of their Votes Only to certain Suburbs recenty on the process of an astonishingly Fast "Gettoisation", (the Dangerosity of which was notoriously Highlighted at the Recent Deadly Terrorist Attacks also in Brussels)...