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Home arrow newsitems arrow Von der Leyen Vote "Quake": at the Mercy of -10 MEPs Change, as +127 ProEuropean MEPs go Dissidents?

Von der Leyen Vote "Quake": at the Mercy of -10 MEPs Change, as +127 ProEuropean MEPs go Dissidents?

Written by ACM
Tuesday, 16 July 2019
 
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*Strasbourg/Angelo Marcopolo/- In the EU Parliament of Nowadays, Can the EU (and Should it) Work under the Threat  for a Dr. Von der Leyen's Commission to be Topled (and/or its main Legislation pieces Blocked) by any eventual Change of Views from Only Less than 10 MEPs (out of a Total of 751), at Any Moment ?

+ And How could Evolve a New EU Parliament where a makeshift "Centrist" Establishment, in Theory designed out of the Traditionaly 3 Biggest Political Groups :  EPP+Socialists+Liberals, who Still Control even Nowadays 443 MEPs, i.e. an Absolute Majority, Starts the New Term of 2019-2024, by Losing more than +127 "Dissident" Votes (See Infra), which apparently went Now Together With the Rightists and/or the Leftists, while Staying Pro-Europeans, (i.e. almost a New Group, Bigger than Macron's/Verhofstad's "ReNew Europe" Liberal Group, which has just 105 MEPs...) ?

These are, in Fact, the 2 main New Political Questions, inevitably Raised by the UnPrecedented Results of Today's Vote, in a Crucial EU Parliament's Plenary session in Strasbourg, where an embattled Ursula Von Der Leyen strived, Fighting Hard up to the very end of her Lobby's forces, to reach the Seat of EU Commission's Presidency, in Less than "13 Days", as she said, (since her Surprise Endorsement by EU Council in Brussels, after 2 Other Scenarios Failed : See ..., etc), with an Exceptionaly "Tight" Division among MEPs, between 383 who Backed her, and 364 who did Not.

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* (A) : => Dr. Von der Leyen = Political INSTABILITY ?

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Indeed, it's with an Historic Low of Only ...9 MEPs' Difference from the Minimum Required Threshhold (374), that Von Der Leyen made it, at the Last minute (after various "Bumps": See Infra), since, according to the well Established Rules on EU Parliament, any Candidate to EU Commission's Presidency Needs, at least, an Absolute Majority of the  MEPs who Compose that Assembly, so that All those who either Vote explicitly "Against" (327), "Blank" (22), "Non Void" (1), or prefer to be "Absent" (14), are practically Counted as Opposed.

=> In Consequence, a Change of Views of Only Less than 10 MEPs (out of 751) could Cost to Von der Leyen her Hard-obtained Seat at EU Commission's Top, since she was Voted Today by just 383 MEPs, against 364, who did Not Voted for her, (i.e. a Smaller than usual, Meagre Difference of Only 19 Votes)...

In Comparison, on the Contrary, the Experienced out-going EU Commission's President, former Long-Time Prime Minister of Luxembourg and €uroGroup's Chairman, Jean-Claude Juncker, (anOther ChristianDemocrat/EPP Top Politician), had got, back on 2014, Nearly the ...Double of Votes for him, than against : 425 - 250, obtaining a very Strong Majority.

Despite that, Juncker faced, even himself, a Motion of Cesure tabled in EU Parliament just a few Weeks after his brillant Election, on November 2014, because of Personal Accusation related alleged undew Tax Facilities to Big International Companies, when he was Minister/Prime Minister of Luxembourg, that he strongly rejected, backed by a Big Majority of MEPs.

+ But, earlier, another former Prime Minister of Luxemburg, Jacques Santer, (another ChristianDemorat/EPP) who had also been Endorsed by EU Parliament on 1994 Only with a "Narrow Majority", as Von Der Leyen now, (despite the fact that, in the Meantime, he had initialy managed on 1995, however, to get a Large Majority of MEPs' Votes for his Commission).was notoriously Obliged, Later-on, to Resign,

Even the main Accusations which had Motivated that Fall were Not really so much related to himself personaly, but to some "Socialist" Members of his team, nevertheless, "Eurofora"'s co-Founder, who was Often Speaking with Santer then, Witnessed how much he had been Personaly Affected by that Withdrawal of EU Parliament's backing.

But, that Risk is Bigger with Von der Leyen, since she Notoriously is, already, under Suspicion for at least 2 potential Financial Scandals related to her Ministerial career in Germany, one concerning the Hiring of Consultants withOut Tenders, for more than 60 Millions €, and another linked to a Strange "Explosion" of the Cost for an Army Training Ship, from 1 to 3-Digit Numbers : initially only 6, but finally about 135 Millions € !, (almost at the Same Time that Brutal Hazing rituals, Sexual Humiliation, and Bullying in Military Training were reportedly Denounced, and the Army's Training Commaner was Fired), as Many pointed out, (including former Long-Time EU Parliament's President, Martin Schulz, etc).

In addition, Von der Leyen, a Medical Doctor specialized in Gynecology and having Worked at a Womens' Clinic (after a Controversial Thesis on Infections at Birth), former Minister of Health, Married to another Doctor, Hired at USA California's Stanford University for Medical Research, and afterwards CEO of a Medical Business Company on "Medical Engineering", at Hanover's "Clinical Trials Center" in Germany, she was Criticized by Augsburg's Catholic Bishop Walter Mixa and Cardinal Joachim Meisner for pushing to make Women "Birthing Machines" abandoning Children to Care Centers, while having also strongly Backed since 2010 a Failed Attempt (then Refused by her own Party of ChrstianDemocrats/EPP) to Impose Controversial systematic Pre-Natal Genetic Tests on Human Embryos, (that Many Denounced, inter alia, for Risks of "Eugenism", Dear to former NAZI, etc), before having even been among only a Few Exceptions among ChristianDemocrats/EPP who Voted for the Controversial "Marriage" of Homosexuals on 2017, and reportedly Pushed even for allocating (by "Adoption" of Other People's kids, Artificialy prepared IVF Births, Surrogate Mothers, etc) and submitting Children under the power of Homosexual Couples, (etc), Obviously has a Conflict of Interests' Problem in core, and currently Crucial BioEthical Issues, which would, f.ex., popp up in Brussels during Imminent Draft EU Legislation, inter alia also on the Forthcoming Pluri-Annual EU Program for Research and Technology, etc.

Such Topical BioEthical Issues may also emerge, not only on Human Health or Food EU Policy, but even in New Sectors, of Rapidly Growing Importance, as, f.ex., related to "Artificial Intelligence" and/or "Big Data" use (f.ex. in Medicine itself, but even Elsewhere), that Von der Leyen already Warned, Today, that she Intends, indeed, to Try to Boost the Soonest, under the Heading of "Digital" EU Policy.

Nobody else among all former EU Commission's Presidents ever had so much personal Links to a Bio-Medical Lobby, (especially close to very "Hot" BioEthical Controversies, of sharply Growing Importance Nowadays, potentially related f.ex. to Genetic Manipulations and/or Tests on Humans), No More in Germany, where, on the Contrary, the Historic, former Chancellor Helmut Kohl, was a Keen Defensor of BioEthical Values, having also played an important Role on a PanEuropean level, f.ex. of the CoE, during Berlin's Presidence, already since 1997 (when, on the Contrary, Von der Leyen was in USA's California, which has notoriously become, nowadays, a most Extreme Headquarters of BioMedical Lobbies of Interest in the World), in Banning legally Human "Cloning" and/or Genetic Manipulations of Human GermLine, (i.e. Heritable through Future Generations), a Danger which has Recently become Possible on 2018, mainly through the Gene-Editing New Technology of Crisp-cas9 : See f.ex. http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/heritablegenemaniptrumpxihumanity.html, etc), while also putting at least some Elementary Conditions, protective of Human Rights, in case of Tests on Humans (alias "Clinical Trials"), f.ex., in principle Prohibited withOut a Well Informed and Free Consent, and/or on fragile Persons Unable to give Consent, (f.ex. Children, Prisoners, Mentally Handicaped, etc). This was done in extension of a Synchronous (1998) CoE's Convention on Human Rights and Bio-Medicine, known as "Oviedo" Treaty, that Helmut Kohl's German Delegation had immediately and Strongly Denounced (in front of "Eurofora" and a few other European Journalists then present at the CoE) as blatantly InSufficient, Asking for much More Strict BioEthical Rules in order to Protect basic Human Dignity. Thus, one can easily imagine How Dangerous a Situation for Human Rights, and Humanity at large could soon arrive with an eventualy unchecked and UnControled EU Commission totaly abandoned to such Dr. Von der Leyen's related Bio-Medical Lobbies of Interest (Comp. Supra)...

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+ An Additional Factor of InStability is also the Fact than Von Der Leyen very Narrowly managed to Reach the required Threshhold on Minimum of Votes at the Last Minute, Today, notoriously, Only by being Based on so Counter-Nature and, Particulary, UnCertain and/or Precarious Backings as in at least 3 well-Known such cases : Those of Polish pro-Government PiS MEPs, Victor Orban's Hungarian Fidesz MEPs, and/or Brittish MEPs !

von_der_leyen_press_conf_ebstveurofora_screenshot_400 

- An Alert was already given by a FT's Lady Journalist, later Today, during a (not previously announced) Press Conference, together with EU Parliament's new President David Sassoli : - It seems that you were Elected Only thanks to the initially UnExpeted Backing also of British Conservative (added also to Labor/Socialists, and Liberals) MEPs. But, since the UK is notoriously due to Leave the EU with the BREXIT soon, then, What shall you do when they woN't be here, no more ? Do you intend, f.ex., to Try to get a Fresh Confirmation Vote, Afterwards, by EU Parliament, or something else ? , she asked, in substance, Von der Leyen.

Indeed, that Threat is Real : Added Together, those Brittish MEPs who reportedly Backed Today Von der Leyen, brought no less than 29 Votes, (4 Conservatives, 10 Socialists, and 15 Liberals), i.e. much More than would be Needed in order to inevitably Deprive her from the Minimum Support Required by EU Rules : A Change of Mind by Less than 10 MEPs, or a simple "Disappearance" of 19 MEPs among those who Backed her Now !

- Probably, that's why, Von der Leyen, during that Press Conference, First pretended not to have Understood the Question, Afterwards "Forgot" it, and Finaly Downplayed it, by Claiming that, because of the Secret Vote, she "did Not Know Who Voted for" her...

But, in case of a Motion of Censure in EU Parliament After a possible BREXIT, naturally, these 29 Brittish MEPs will NOT be here, No more, and, therefore, as things stand now, Von der Leyen would have No More, Not even the Minimum Required Majority at that Time.

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+ Even more Precarious seems also the case of 26 Polish MEPs from the Governing "PiS" ("Law and Order") Party :

- Indeed, they were, Initially, among those who Criticized the Establishment's changing Choice by the EU Council, behind Closed Doors earlier in Brussels, Only 13 Days Before, and their Group of "Conservates" strongly Criticized the Establishment's Lobby of Von der Leyen, even Today Morning, just After her "Opening Statement" in EU Parliament's Debate and, Later-on, Crucial Vote, for having, Meanwhile, even Excluded former Polish Prime Minister Beata Szydlo, from her Right, as New MEP backed by ECR's Conservatives, to be Elected President of an EU Parliament's Committee, as another proof of Lack of Democracy in this 2019 process of Distribution of EU's Top Jobs...

But, "at the Last Minute" before the Crucial Vote, they Suddenly made a Spectacular "U-Turn" by reportedly Announcing that they Finally decided to Back Von der Leyen.

It's No yet Clear for which precise Reasons they did so, (even if several Indications suggest that this might, eventually, be due to a kind of -de facto or even explicit-  "Blackmail related to well known Controversial Threats against Poland, particularly the Procedure recently triggered by EU Commission against Warsaw). But, whenever such Exceptional Reasons may be Lifted, and given Also the Von der Leyen's finally Expressed Stance on EU's External Borders vis-a-vis Mass Asylum Seekers/Irregular Migrants, as she Described it earlier Today Morning, in EU Parliament's Debate, this also looks as a very Precarious Backing, which might, eventually, "Vanish" again, practically at Any Moment....     

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++ Added to that, is the, only partially Similar case of 13 Hungarian MEPs (+1 More After the 2019 re-Election with 53%) from Viktor Orban's "Fidesz" Party. Here the way the situation evolved vis a vis Von der Leyen is, indeed, Reverse :

- At First, Orban notoriously felt, in Brussels' relevant Latest mini-Summits, that he (Together with several Other EU Heads of State/Government) had obtained at least a relative, but real "Success", mainly by managing to Prevent the Worse : Socialist Cadidate Timmermans' Sudden and UnExpected OPA on the Presidency of EU Commission, Despite the Fact that he had Lost the 2019 EU Election, Won by ChristianDemocrat/EPP's Weber, (on whom he had fluctuated).  

Given also that Timmerman was well known for being very Eager to "Pressure" those recalcitrant, Central-Eastern EU Countries which wished to Avoid that Huge, UnPrecedented "Tsunami" of (too Often Fake) Mass Asylum Seekers/Irregular Migrants Tresspassing inside EU's External Borders through Turkey's Smugglers, several times even with Islamist Terrrorists Hidden among them, as well as to Protect certain Key Traditional Values of their Societies, (Natural Family, Christian roots, etc), recently Bullied by some Opposed Lobbies from a Part of the West, (particulary those Imposed by former "Socialist/Liberal" US President Barack Hussein Obama until 2016, as "Marriage" between Homosexuals, Genetic Manipulations of Human Embryo, etc).

=> Therefore, Victor Orban notoriously Welcomed Ursula Von der Leyen's sudden Emergence as a Solution in Brussels, as the arrival, Instead, of "a German Mother of 7", as he reportedly pointed out, right from the Start. Afterwards, during the 2 Last Weeks' internal Elections at EU Parliament, was re-Elected the Hungarian ChristianDemocrat/EPP Fidesz MEP Lívia Jaroka as vice-President, followed by several Other such MEPs as Committees' Bureau Members, (despite an earlier, cotroversial "Suspension" of Fidesz' Membership to the EPP, jointly decided, long Before the May 2019 EU Election).

>>> But, at least since Today Morning, (16/7/2019), when it has Started to become Obvious that Von der Leyen does Not even Mention Europe's "Christian Roots", whenever she speaks about its Historic Identity, (Limited just to Ancient Greek Philosophy and Roman Law), at her "Opening Speech" to EU Parliament, and that she Backs a Wider Softening throughout all EU's "External Borders", particularly "at Sea" (as Facing Turkey in Asia, or Africa), to even more Mass Asylum Seekers/Irregular Migrants, (whose Massive Influx should Not be Reversed, Not even Stoped, but Only "Reduced", i.e. still Persist), in Addition to the Creation of "Humanitarian Corridors", etc., while, at the Same Time, making Publicity for alleged "Syrian Refugees" aged 19-23 years old, who become "High-School" Pupils, and reportedly manage to "Learn German" after Living, Free of Charge, during more than +4 Years, in Von der Leyen's own House (sic !), as she described now, in Addition to her Wish to Create Stronger "Mechanisms" due to Impose to All EU Member States, some Norms considered as a "Must" by anyone who holds Power a EU's Center, at one moment or another, even on various Nations' Everyday Life, (etc), most Probably Orban begun to Realise that, in Fact, things were quite Different from what the above-mentioned "Timmermans' Manouvre" had Pushed him to Initially Believe, (Comp. Supra) !

+ His inevitable (and, perhaps, Benefiting) Disillusion, vis a vis Dr. Von der Leyen, would Certainly become even Stronger, as soon as he clearly Learns that, in Fact, she is also Backing "Marriage between Homosexuals", with even "Children" placed under the Power of Homosexual Couples, (inevitably, after having been Obtained either by Taking them Away from their Natural Family, i.e. via "Adoption", or by Artificialy Induced Births, via Technological Interventions, including, f.ex. IVF, and/or "Surrogate" Mothers' Exploitation, etc), while also being Personaly Linked to a Bio-Medical Lobby, particularly Focused on various Medical Interventions at Births, by her own Education and Private Jobs, added even to her Husband's similar Education and current Business' Interests, as well as her, sometimes Criticized, choices as former Health Minister, in Addition to her Early Backing of Controversial, Systematic Pre-Natal Genetic Tests, an already Citicized, Massive Abandon of Children to "Care Centers", instead of being Raised mainly by their Families, etc. (Comp. Facts cited Supra).

    => Indeed, a Realy and Fully Conscious Victor Orban and his Friends, well Aware of all these Facts, Normaly, cannot but Become seriously Critical, if not even Revolted against all these Controversial Facts about Von der Leyen's real desiderata, Particularly when it comes to their Blatant Contradiction even with Hungary's own Constitution, which, on the Contrary, Supports Europe's Historic "Christian" Roots, and Natural/Traditional Family, beween a Man and a Woman, while also Protecting Human Embryos from undue Genetic Manipulations, etc., as Prescribed, inter alia, the Landmark Constitutional Reforms that the Popular Hungarian Prime Minister notoriously Forged, (even Before also several Other, mainly Central-Eastern European Countries try to Follow, Later-on), as a Pioneer, Already since December 2000 :

- I.e. when he First Replied thus to a relevant Question raised by "Eurofora", during his Press Conference, then, at Brussels' EU Summit, (just Before Hungary takes over EU's rotating Presidency from Next Month : since January 2011,  See http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/victororbanoneuidentityandenergy.html), Later Confirmed or Reiterated, even Deeper or Sharper, in one Way or another, also in Following Victor Orban's Press Conferences :  F.ex. in EU Parliament in Strasbourg on 7/2013, and/or in Bratislava's (Slovakia) EU Summit of 9/2016, etc., in relevant Replies to "Eurofora"s original Questions, (See, f.ex.: http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/primeministerorbanonvaluesmovementandeuelection.html, + http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/victororbanoneuropeanandnationalreferenda.html, respectively, etc).

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(+ ETC...)

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>>> All this, Taken Together, Obviously points towards what could become a Too UnStable Commission, since a Non-Confidence Motion can be Tabled by just 10% of MEPs, Debated and Adopted in EU Parliament at Any Moment in the foreseable Future, while an EU Commission may also be Pushed to Resign at any moment, as it has already happened in the Past, (Comp. Supra)...  

+ However, it's also true that the Revised Rules for EU Parliament's relevant Procedure, have included the Additonal Condition of 2/3 of Votes Casted, in order for MEPs to Oblige an EU Commission to Go Away, collectively. Something which, obviously, may Limit somehow the practical Chances for such a Procedure to be effectively Concluded.          

 >>> But the concrete Example of Santers' Commission's collective Resignation, already on 2009, (Comp. Supra), obtained even Before and withOut any specific Parliament's Motion of Censure, just with the creation of a special "Enquiry" Committee by MEPs on various alleged Scandals, who had Warned, in the case of Serious Findings, about their Intention to Introduce also a Motion of Censure only Later-on, shows that, in Fact, Various, Simple but Powerful, Political Possibilities exist...

>>> In Addition, at Any Case, in real Practice, even the Mere Lack of a Simple Majority of MEPs, in order to Vote the most Important Pieces of Legislation, introduced by a Commission whose President may have Fallen in Disgrace at EU Parliament, due to Serious Findings and/or Political Differences, Can Obviously Disrupt EU's proper Functioning, in such a Damaging way, that the Only Functional Solution for the General European Interest, would Inevitably be, Sooner or Later, to Find a Way to Replace a too Controversial President, if not All the EU Commission concerned by such Serious Problems.

 - Mainstream "BBC" already Concluded that "all this Division" "means" that "for a Start, (sic !) the European Commission Mrs von der Leyen will lead from November may have Problems Passing Legislation through the parliament"...

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* (B) + An Emerging "DISSIDENT GROUP" of Pro-European MEPs, ready to Vote with "Rightists" and/or "Leftists" in Key cases ?

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+ Nevertheless, there is Also a 2nd Important Question Raised after Today's too Cumbersome, Episodic and Rasor-Thin EU Parliament's Vote on Von der Leyen, (Comp. Supra), which might, eventually, Add to the Above-Mentioned Instability, and/or rather Warn about Possible Big Changes in the overall Political Structure of the New EU Parlament, Sooner or Later, in the foreseable Future :

- Indeed, the Latest EU Elections' results, on May 2019, may have Not Only Made the Previous "Gro-Co" (Big Coalition) between the ChristianDemorats/EPP and the Socialists, obviously InSufficient in order to Control Efficient Majorities in EU Parliament, (as German Chancellor Angie Merkel had Already Warned at one of her Press Conferences during the Latest European Council's full Summit, on June 20-21 in Brussels, (Comp. "Eurofora"s NewsReports, then, from the spot, f.ex.: http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/merkelfocusmepskeepsweber.html + http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/merkelonmyteryopposaltoweber.html, etc), but Even a so-called "Pro-European", Wider Coalition, between Now 3 or 4 Political Groups around the Center of the Traditional Establishment, (i.e.: EPP, Socialists and Liberals, eventualy Together also with the "Greens"), might have Many "DISSIDENT" MEPs, Mathematicaly Able to Form a New Group, and/or Ready to Vote Together with "Rightists" and/or "Leftists", at least on certain Key Decisions !

>>> Today's relevant Facts revealed (as we HighLighted Above) that, Not Only such a Wide "Pro-European" Coalition between the 4 Parties Usually Designated as such : i.e. of EPP, Socialists, Liberals (re-named "ReNew Europe") and Greens, Obviously did Not Work this Time, in the Most Important Decision that the New EU Parliament had to take, Since the "Greens" notoriously Voted Against Von der Leyen,

But, Even a comparatively "Tighter" Coalition of the 3 Establishment's Main and Biggest Parties : those of ChristianDemocrats/EPP, Socialists, and Liberals/"ReNew Europe", which, on Paper, have a Total of 443 MEPs, Nevertheless, in Real Practice they largely Failed to Convince Many of them, since an UnExpectedly Great Number among their MEPs prefered, on the Contrary, to Vote ...as the "Rightists" and "Leftists" did, While, still Remaining, however, always "Pro-Europeans"...

>>> This Inevitable Conclusion results from the Simple Fact that, at First, among the 443 MEPs of those 3 Biggest Parties of the Traditional Pro-European Establshment (EPP/Socialists/Liberals), finally, it's ...No More than 383 Votes that Von der Leyen got, i.e. obviously Losing at least - 70 Votes from Those MEPs, who Prefered Not to Vote for her, But to Do As the "Rightists" and "Leftists", by Voting "Against" her, "Blank", Non Void, or to be Absent, (since All That had to be Subtracted, according to EU's Rules, from what she Needed on order to Try to Reach an Absolute Majority of EU Parliament's Component Members : Comp. Supra).

But 70 MEPs is, already, an Important Number, since it Could be Enough (if also Spread among several EU Countries) even for the eventual Creation of a brand New Group !

+ Moreover, the Actual Number of such "Dissident" MEPs, Emerging from the 3 Traditional "Pro-European" Groups of the Establishment, (EPP/Socialists/Liberals-RE), is, in Fact, much Bigger than that...

=> Indeed, among those that Rasor-Thin (Comp. Supra) Majority of 383 MEPs who finaly Voted for Von der Leyen, at least ...57 Votes came from Various Other Parties, of "Rightists" or "Leftists", which necessarily Means that an Equivalent Number of MEPs from the 3 Biggest "pro-European" Parties of the Traditional Establishment, had become Dissidents !

Those 57 MEPs from Other, Rightist or Leftist Parties, seem to include 4 Brittish Conservatives, (apparently attracted by Von der Leyen's promise to Accept any eventual Extension of BREXIT's Time Deadlie, for "Good Reasons"), as well as 13 Hungarians from Orban's "Fidesz" Party (currently "Suspended" from the EPP) for the reasons examined Above (Comp. Supra), and 14 Italians from the Atypical "5 Stars" co-Governing Party, initialy of Bepe Grillo, (which was Part of Farage's "EFDD" Group, but is now obliged to stay among the various "Independent" MEPs after the Recent Dissolution of that Group), as well as 26 Polish MEPs from the Governing "PiS" ("Law and Order") Rightist Party (Conservatives : See Facts cited Supra).

On the Contrary, since such kind of Votes are absolutely "Secret", according to the Rules, it's practicaly very Difficult, if not Impossible yet, to Say Who exactly were the Equivalent Number of MEPs from the 3 Biggest and Traditional "Pro-European" Groups (EPP/Socialists/Liberals-RE) who made the Inverse Move, by Refusing to Vote for Von der Leyen...

=> But the most Important Point is that the Total of such "Dissident" MEPs : 127, All Originating from the 3 Biggest Groups of the Traditional "Pro-European" Establishment, who Decided Today to Secretly Do the Same as the Rightists, Leftists and Greens, by Refusing to Vote for Dr. Von der Leyen, (while Not necessarily abandoning their otherwise always "Pro-European" Views), obiously form, Collectively, a New Reality in EU Parliament, which should Not be Underestimated, but whose Political Intentions still remain to be seen.

Indeed, + 127 MEPs is a very Important Number, much Bigger than the 105 Only MEPs of the Liberal/"Renew Europe" Group : until Now the 3rd in EU Parliament, and Close to the 153 Socialists, (Soon probably to Fall Down to Only 143, after an Expected BREXIT), who still hold the 2nd place in EU Parliament, after the EPP.

>>> In Consequence, they Could, in Theory, decide to do as the Rest of their Collegues in the 3 Biggest Groups of the Traditional "Pro-European" Establishent (EPP/Socialists/Liberals-RE), who notoriously "Cooperate" Together, and, Perhaps, even ... Form a brand New Political Group, made of about 127 MEPs "Dissident" Pro-European MEPs (a New Reality), who would soon Compete against the Socialists for the Rank of the 2nd Biggest Group in the New EU Parliament of the Period 2019-2024 !  

The Problem is, at least for the moment, that, Because of the Entirely "Secret" character of this Exceptional Vote, inevitably, Most of those 127 MEPs ...do Not even Know Who really are their Collegues who Think and Act, Nowadays, like themselves, so that such a "Technical" Obstacle still Hinders them from eventually Meeting all Together, to Exchange and Interact Between All of them, until they Freely and Consciously Decide what to do in the Foreseable Future...

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At least one thing looks sure, for the moment : Contrary to a Big Fuss made by some Socialists about an alleged "Row" among their ranks, (Even if, with the "Von der Leyen Package Deal", they have been Already "Paid" Twice : With EU Parliament's New President Sassoli [See : ..., etc], and with Borrell coming at EU's External Action, Both Socialists), in Fact, a probably much Bigger (even if Secret) Row of Revolt seems to Boil among the ChristianDemocrat/EPP MEPs :

- President Weber had initialy Launched a Call for "a Bold and Clear ReAction from the European Parliament", when Brussels' Council had Attempted to Impose the Socialist Timmermans, who had Lost the May 2019 Election. But he seems to have Accepted (and/or Pushed to Accept) a ChristianDemocrat/EPP from Germany, as Von der Leyen, even if she had not even presented herself to EU Citizens' Public Debate and Vote, and Nobody knew her Plans for Europe (Not even herself !) when the EU Elections took place on May...

- However, even Medias of Hungary, whose Governing "Fidesz" Party Voted von der Leyen (Comp. Supra), nevertheless, see "Problems Ahead", and Warn that this "Relation .... is Not going to be the Best", inter alia, also Because "Her Talk" (this Morning) on Mass Migration "does Not bode well for ...the Future".

 - Already, inside the ChristianDemocrat/EPP Group, "there is Tension",  revealed a Bulgarian MEP, speaking to the Press : Some "MEPs ... are Worried". This is "also Caused by ...<<Visible Bows>>" toward one or another Group of MEPs. And "We do Not know Enough" about her : F.ex. "Our (EPP MEPs') meeting with Ms. Ursula von der Leyen was the Shortest of All her meetings with the Parliamentary Groups : It lasted Only Half an Hour. All the Other groups had 2-3 Hours-long meeting with her and had Unlimited opportunity to ask their Questions". So that, "Part of the EPP ...would Not Vote for Ursula von der Leyen", he had Warned.

- And Even among the Closest, French Counterparts of CDU/CSU: the "Republicans", their Head, Francois-Xavier Bellamy, clearly revealed certain Key Disagreements on "Hot" Topical Issues, both Before and After her "Opening Speech" of Today Morning :

 - "Without any doubt, We shall Not Agree on Everything", he had Warned. And "it's Our Responsibility to Make her Listen to what the Voters told us, and Their Expectations vis a vis Europe", he had Warned

=>  This Noon, Bellamy reacted, indeed, Sharply to Von der Leyen's latest Controversial Statements on Mass Irregular Migration, (that many felt as a Concession to Socialists and Greens for some Votes...) :

-"Let's Face the Facts : Europe is in profound Crisis, and seems Condemned to Powerlesness in front of Economic Challenges, Migratory Challenges, and Facing Big Powers which seem, Today, to be writting the World's History". So, "it's the Destiny of our Civilisation which is at Stake, Nowadays." => "There is Only 1 Way to End with Anxiety and Scepticism : It's by ReShaping Europe, (putting Europe in New Foundations) so that it serves the European People", he stressed, (evoking f.ex. EU's Agriculture, Industry, Know-how, etc)

(Von der Leyen had Earlier spoken about "a Conference on the Future of Europe" in 2020-2022, where "EU Citizens [should] play a leading [sic !] and active part", as she said, concerning Forthcoming Institutional Reforms).
 

+ In particular, "We don't want to Suffer, no more, from that Same Powerlesness in front of the Migration Crisis", he underlined, pointing at that UnPrecedented Huge "Tsunami" of More than 1,5 Millions of Mass Asylum Seekers/Irregular Migrants, Suddenly Tresspassing EU's External Borders in Greece, through Turkey's Smugglers, from 2015-2016+, (Shortly Followed also by a Never seen Before, Long Series of Islamist Terrorism Deadly Attacks, Cowardly Targetting Civilian People, and Extended throughout All Europe during 2016-2019, up to the Eve of the Latest EU Elections : Cf., f.ex, the Lyon City Bloody Bombings, etc)

- "Yes, each Death in the Mediterranean is a Tragedy", Bellamy acknowledged, Reacting to Von der Leyen's "Hot" plaidoyerie, Earlier this Morning, who, Speaking of "more than 1700 Peope Drowned in the Mediterranean", "in the last 5 Years", that made it "one of the Deadliest Borders in the World", (Curiously, while it was More Abandoned to irregular mass migration, in the Past !), she added that "at Sea, there is the Duty to Save Lives", in order to Conclude that "the EU needs Humane Borders", to "Improve the situation of Refugees", and "Humanitarian Corridors", (while Simply "Reducing Irregular Migration", by "Fighting Smugglers and Traffickers", as "Organized Crime", plus by Accelerating the Venue of More EU's "Coast-Guards", instead of 2027, from 2024)...

- But, the Reality is that, Recently, "Too Many People take all Risks in order to come to Europe, Because they know that the Only Condition in order to Settle here, is to Arrive Irregularly !", Denounced Bellamy in Reply.

- So that, in Fact, "Eachone of these Tragedies is the Result of mainly One Cause, which is our (EU's) Powerlessness", he Criticized. That's one reason more, for which "We (EU) Must, at last, take Control of Europe's External Borders : It's (also) a Humanitarian Duty !", he underlined.

+ At the Same Time, "Receive someone is Not Passively Suffer, neither Undergo. It concerns also the Conditions for a Well Balanced (Equilibrated) Society, and for Transmitting our wonderful Civilisation to Future Generations", Bellamy added, Defending also the European People, the Poorest and most Fragile Part of whom, notoriously, Face the manifold Consequences of UnControlled Massive Irregular Migrations, affecting their Everyday Life, including Housing, Schools, Access to Health Care, Security, Fast-Track Islamisation, etc, especially as, Recently, Socio-Cultural "Ghettos" and "AppartHeid", are Multiplying and Aggravating at Many EU Areas, Degrading and EnDangering mainly Poor People's Everyday Lives, (including even several Migrants, who have already Protested against such Anti-Social and sometimes InHuman Practices).

-----------------

- However, Bellamy's expressed Ambition that, as he Claimed, "it's Our Group (EPP) which will be Able to Determine, Together with her, the Future Orientations" of EU Policies, looks as an Obvious Illusion, (at least in case of a politicaly Powerfull EU Commission)...

- But, on the Contrary, in case of a Politically "Weak" Commission, Naturally, this may Become Meaningfull !

- Replying, during the subsequent, brief Press Conference, to a Critical Question around such matters (Comp. Supra), Von der Leyen simply Rejected any such Speculations, by merely stressing that, as a matter of Principle, ..."a Majority, is a Majority !", as she said...

- Yes, But, that Concrete "Majority", obviously so Painfuly obtained Today, (Comp. Supra), is it really Sufficient for a Stable and Efficient Functioning of EU Commission during 5 Crucial Years ? And, is it really Sustainable ?

>>> Apparently, the Only Good Result of such Problems, could be if the EU Commission Felt Obliged to really Cooperate and Work more Closer, Together with EU Parliament, than ever before !

=> Such an Eventual Development, (i.e. for EU Parliament to Become also an Efficient Democracy's Watchdog for Transparency, Accountability and Fidelity of EU Commission's main Policies to the European People's most Important Aspirations in Topical Issues, as Expressed, also, in the latest EU Elections,

=> implies, however, at least to Know Who are those MEPs who have already Dared Today -and may also Dare aNew, if really needed, in the foreseable Future - Refuse to Vote for something which, for this or that reason to which they Sincerely Believed, did Not seem Right to them, at least, as things stand now, and for the Time being, (Comp. Supra).

>>> Despite the Problems raised by the Exceptionaly "Secret" character of Today's Vote, (Comp. Supra), it canNot be Excluded a priori that, possibly, Advancing through also Various Other such Key Votes, in the foreseable Future, and, perhaps, as Some Potential Leaders (or, at least, Political Thinkers), might Start to Openly Emerge among such recalcitrant MEPs, sooner or later, those, still Condemned to behave like "Phantoms" (Comp. Supra), but really Existing, around 127 Dissident "Pro-European" MEPs, could, at last, become Conscious of their Collective Existence, and its Potential Political Importance.

Naturally, it's Also Possible, for Most of them, to eventually Strike Deals with one or another among EU Parliament's already pre-Existing, various Political Groups.

Most Probably towards the Right side of the Political Spectrum, (which would, then, clearly Consolidate an UnQuestionable and Strong Majority : Comp., f.ex., already ...., etc). But also, at least partialy, towards the Left, (f.ex. some "Greens", if not even "Leftists", perhaps certain Atypical "Socialists", etc).

WithOut Excluding a priori even a kind of "Criss-Cross" Alliance with Parts of the Right AND of the Left Sides of the Political Spectrum : Contrary, indeed, to what Claim some Commentators, (incl., f.ex. "Liberation"'s Quatremer, etc), such an eventual Tactic from the Dissident 127 MEPs would Not Necessarily be "Impossible", merely Because of a "Disparate" character between those Various current Groups of MEPs.

Already, the Contrary is Proved by the mere Existence of the present, Atypical Government Coalition in Italy, between the "Lega"s Rightists, and the "5 Stars" so-called Leftists or "Progressives", which had been Formed after Many Months of a Long Political Standstill, but Soon after a relevant "Eurofora"s Publication Urging to Dare Test such an Unusual but Interesting, there, Cooperation, among the Country's most Popular then Parties, (See: ..., etc), which Succeeded to do so, after a Genuine Effort to Forge a Joint Program. Moreover, the President of the New Rightist Group "Identity and Democracy", Marco Zanni, currently a "Lega"'s MEP, belonged, in the Past, precisely to that Leftist/Progressist Party of "5 Stars" ! While there are also 2 Italian MEPs with Family Name "Adenolfi", ...Equitably Shared between those 2 Groups...

Moreover, it's also in the Atypical Protest Movement of France's "Yellow Vests", that many have notoriously Felt the Co-Existence of Both "Rightist" and "Leftist" Trends. And even USA's "Conservative" Party's Candidate to the Presidential Election, Don Trump, an Atypical Old Family Capitalist, Millionaire from Private Estate Business etc., Surprisingly Focused, at his Nomination Speech, on July 2016, in Ohio's Cleveland, to Attract mainly ...the Leftists, by addressing himself, First of all, to those Poor People who were practicaly Abandoned by the Establishment: Jobless, Black People Excluded by the Education System, Impoverished former Middle-Classes, inDebted Students, Families obliged to live in Delabrated Neighborhoods, etc. This Strategic Move, towards what he called "the Forgotten People", (Facilitated also by the Socialist Establishment's notoriously DisHonest Elimination of Leftist Candidate Bern Sanders), made Trump unexpectedly Win the Race against "Socialist"/Democrat Hillar Clinton, bypassed also from her Left Side, on the decisive Vote of November 2016, even Despite initially Opposed Polls, Creating a big Surprise at the Last Minute...

_______________________________________

=> Therefore, the Possibilities currently Open for those about 127 "Dissident" Pro-European MEPs, (Comp. Supra), seem, in Fact, Manifold and Numerous, as well as quite Important, at least in Theory, withOut Excluding a priori even the UnExpected : I.e. that, Later-on, they might, eventually, Succeed to be, Suprisingly called, themselves, in the Future, as the "REAL EUROPEANS" ?!...

At least Now, they can obviously Claim that they Tried to Defend the Honour of European Democracy and, particularly, of EU Citizens (See, f.ex.: http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/eutopjobsrowturnsnastyforcitizens.html, etc)...

And, indeed, they Marked a Point !

 


(../..)


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Recent developments proved that Europe can suceed to overcome challenges by aiming at great objectives, and this is needed also in 2009, said EU chairman, French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

    - "It's in the name of Great Ideas, Projects, Ambition and Ideals, that EU can overcome" challenges, stressed Sarkozy at EU Parliament in Strasbourg, in conclusion of a dense 7 months EU Chairmanship. "It's even easier for Europe to have Great projects, able to overcome national egoism, instead of limiting itself only to small projects" (unable to do alike), he observed.     

- "Europe must remain Ambitious and understand that the World needs her to take Decisions". "The World needs a Strong Europe", which "thinks on its own, has convictions, its own responses, its imagination" : "A Europe which does not limit itself into following" others, (as it did in the Past, when it followed USA, f.ex. on Bosnia). On the contrary, "Europe should undertake its own responsibilities", he said, after a series of succes in stopping the War between Russia and Georgia, and organizing the 1st EuroZone's Summit in Paris, which incited the Washington DC G-20 Summit to extend similar decisions World-wide.  


    - "When you sweep it all under the carpet, prepare yourself for hard tomorrows", he warned. "What hinders decisions is the lack of Courage and Will, the fading away of Ideals", he stressed before EU Parliament's 2008 debate on Human Rights and Sakharov prize on Freedom of thought attributed by MEPs to Chinese cyber-dissident Hu Jia, followed by an EU - Turkey meeting on Friday.

    - "I don't abandon my convictions" and "I will take initiatives" on EU level also in 2009, Sarkozy announced later. "France will not stop having convictions and taking initiatives" on Europe. + "It's an Error to wish to pass over the Heads of those who are elected in their Countries" : "It's an integrism I always fought against"', he warned.
---------------------
French EU Presidency faced 4 unexpected Crisis :

- An institutional crisis, with the Irish "No" to EU Lisbon Treaty, just before it started. A geopolitical crisis, wth the threat of War between Russia and Georgia risking to throw Europe back to Cold-war divisions, on August. A World-wide Financial and Economic crisis, arriving at a bad moment before crucial 2009 EU elections. And even a Strasbourg's mini-crisis, with EU Parliament's roof curiously falling down, from unknown reasons, in a brand new building on August, provoking an unprecedented transfert of the 2 September Plenary Sessions...

But it wasn't enough to stop Sarkozy ! On the contrary, it stimulated him...
---------------------------------------

- "The better way to deal with the recent problems of EU institutions (as the "3 NO" by France, the Netherlands and Ireland) is to take them as a "Test" in order to find solutions closer to Citizens' concerns", said later in Strasbourg Sarkozy's new choice as Ministe for EU affairs, Bruno Le Maire.

- On the Institutional front, Sarkozy gave Time to the Irish to think about it, and stroke on December a deal including a New Referendum after the June 2009 EU Elections, in exchange of a promise to keep the rule of "one EU Commissioner for each EU Member Country", and some opt-outs on Defence and Fiscal EU policies, Abortion, etc. If the Irish get a "Yes" Majority, then the institutional package could be completed in 2010 or 2011 on the occasion of Croatia's probable EU accession.

He was accused in Strasbourg to upgrade EU Council and downgrade EU Commision, but he replied that "strong Political initiatives by EU Council reinforce also the more technical role of EU Commission, under the political-technical leadership of its President", all 3 "working together with EU Parliament".


- But, meanwhile, Sarkozy energetically spearheaded an Historic 1st Summit of EuroZone's 15 Heads of State and Government at EU's core, exceptionally enlarged to a partial participation of British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, on October 12 in Paris' Elysee palace, which started to tackle succesfully the growing world Financial crisis.

    It also paved the way for its endorsement by a subsequent Brussels' 27 EU Member States' gathering, before it all come to Washington's G-20 Summit. And "Europe was united, it asked for the 1st G-20 Summit, and it will also organise the next G-20 Summit on April in London", he observed.   

 But a Conference with EU, Russia, African and other Developing Countries, hosted in Strasbourg shortly after Washington G-20 Summit by the French EU Presidency, took a Resolution asking to enlarge participation to Global Economic Governance. Many found, indeed, illogic and unacceptable that f.ex. states as Turkey were given a seat at G-20 level, while all African Countries, and even the African Union itself, representing the greatest Continent on Earth, were excluded...


    Meanwhile, even USA''s "Paulson No 3" Plan, was, in fact, inspired by Europe's No 1 Plan", Sarkozy observed, largelly applauded by MEPs.

    And "Europe showed Solidarity" by mobilizing some 22 Billion credit for Hungary, 1,7 billion for Ukraine, as we do nowadays for Baltic States, etc., he added.

    The move on Economy was extended on December by an EU stimulus' plan totalling some 200 billion Euros, including 5 Billions released by EU Commission for big Projects, as well as various parallel National plans for Economic revival, (fex. 26 billions in France alone). They might appear limited, compared to USA President-elect Obama's reported plan to boost the American economy with 800 billion $, but at least succeded to overcome Europe's divisions for the first time on Economic governance, opening new horizons.

- The French President stressed even harder the unique role of an active EU Council's chairmanship, when he moved swiftly and efficiently, at the beginning of August, to succesfully stop War between Russia and Georgia, at the last minute, which threatened to bring Europe back to Cold War division.

"We (EU) also wanted to avoid a situation like in Bosnia, in the Past, when EU was absent, so that our American friends took their responsibilitues, and EU only followed", despite the fact that the conflict took place in Europe. Now, it was the EU who took its responsibilities".

A roadmap towards a new PanEuropean Security policy, before which all unilateral moves to place new Missiles (from USA or Russia) would be freezed, was proposed by Sarkozy after a meeting with Russian president Medvedev, at the eve of Washington DC's G-20 Summit.

Ukraine's "European" character was stressed at a Sarkozy - Jushenko Summit, September in Paris, while EU adopted on December an "Eastern policy", in which, "I'm convinced that our (EU's) future is to find with our Neighbours the conditions for Economic Development. Peace and Security, by explaining them that.. they must respect (Human Rights') Values, and adopt behaviors different from the Past", explained Sarkozy in Strasbourg.

Meanwhile, the "Union for the Mediterranean" was created, since July's Summit if 45 Heads of State and Government in Paris, as "an organisation for a permanent Dialogue, that we need", mainly in order to tackle the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, by bringing together, for the 1st time, Israelis and Arabs, where "Europe must be present, in order to avoid a frontal clash".

- "If Europe doesn't take its part for Peace in the Middle-East, nobody else will do that in our place", Sarkozy stressed.
-----------------------
    Meanwhile, other EU Agreements were brokered during the French EU Presidency on Immigration, (fex. common Asylum rules, etc), and Climat- Energy :

    - On Climat-Energy, the 2007 German EU Presidency had fixed a triple 20% aim for 2020 (20% renewable Energies, 20% reduction of CO2 emmission, 20% energy efficience/economies), and the 2008 French EU Presidecny realized that, making the necessary compromises in order to modernize EU's industry, but without throwing some former Central-Eastern European Countries into abrupt Economic break down risking "social explosion".

    - Defence-Security EU policy was mainly postponed for April 2009, since both German chancellor Merkel and French president Sarkozy want to strike a deal with the new American president Obama in Strasbourg's NATO Summit.

    However, with all these 4 unexpected Crisis diverting attention to other urgencies, People wil wonder now, what happened to the famous deal proposed by freshly-elected French President Sarkozy on Turkey's controversial EU bid, back on August 2007, to continue EU - Turkey negotiations, but on the double condition that core chapters, intrinsequally linked with EU Membership, will be excluded, and that a collective Reflexion and Debate on Europe's future would start before the end of 2008.

    It was meant to reply to the crucial question : What kind of Europe do we want in 10 or 20 Years from now : A large Market, or a Political Europe, with a popular identity ? In Sarkozy's thinking, presented in his 2 landmark speeches on Europe in Strasbourg, shortly before and after the 2007 Elections, (on February and July 2007), Turkey's controversial EU bid would be incompatible with the second choice.

    It's true that EU Commision's Chairman, Jose Barroso, (who had notoriously declared, as former Portuguese Prime Minister, that he found "nonsense" the idea that Europe might become equal to the US), had repeatedly tried to avoid that Sarkozy's criticism on Turkey might start winning a larger audience in Europe, preferring a discrete "wismens' committee" work. And that most of the personalities later chosen in order to participate in a Committee on Europe's Future, are too much linked with Socialist parties and/or American policies, to be really critical of USA's notorious wish to impose Turkey to the EU, as Sarkozy had noted himself since March 2007..

     - "It's on EU Council's presidency to take political initiatives. EU Commission has other competences", stressed Sarkozy. The "European Ideal" is to "build Europe with the States, not against them". "Ask Europeans to chose between their countries and Europe won't work. You don't choose between your two parents : We must add them together".

    "France and Germany have an Historic Duty to work together, precisely because of what happened to the Past. We have to work hand by hand. We cannot be separated.It goes beyond me and Mrs Merkel today, Mr Schroeder and Mr. Chirac yesterday. It's not a choice, it's a duty to Europe and to the World".  "We need Germany, as Germany needs Europe". Compromise is inevitable, here as everywhere, and each one made some steps towards eachother's positions.

    But "it's true that Mrs Merkel didn't chose her Socialist partners, while I chose mine", Sarkozy said, in an indirect hint that the Socialist Minister of Finance in Germany might be a cause of minor past disagreements in Economy, which were overcome in recent negotiations.

    "We (France and Germany) have particular duties in Europe", but "in a Europe of 27 Member States, it's not enough for France and Germany to agree between them.

    "I always thought that Great Britain has a special role to play in Europe. ... Now, everybody "saw what it cost payed the UK for having been too exclusively open towards the US (and) Financial services. Europe needs the UK, but also the UK needs Europe" :- "We were able to face the hardest moment of the Financial crisis because the UK clearly chose Europe", stressed Sarkozy, reminding Gordon Brown's exceptional participation to the Historic 1st Heads of State/Government Summit of EuroZone, October 12 in Paris (See EuroFora's Reportage from Elysee Palace then).

     - "Some look at Europe with old glasses aged 30 years ago. While we must look at her in relation to what it will be in 30 years" in the Future, Sarkozy concluded.

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2009 EU Elections were won by Parties against Technocracy and Turkey's controversial EU bid, while the 1999-2004 Majority Abstention trend decelerated. What should be done in 2009-2014 ?

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