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Home arrow newsitems arrow Bulgaria: People Vote + 51% Absolute Majority to the Right, only 40,8% to "Left"-Turkish groups

Bulgaria: People Vote + 51% Absolute Majority to the Right, only 40,8% to "Left"-Turkish groups

Written by ACM
Monday, 13 May 2013

The Bulgarian People gave a crystal-clear preference to Center-Right parties in the crucial National Elections of this Sunday, which gather, all in all, a Total of Votes much Bigger than an Absolute Majority of some 51 % against only about 40,8 % to the "Left" side of the Political spectrum, where the former "Socialist" party is again obliged to deal with a smaller pro-Turkish grouplet, (while, on the contrary, at the Right side, in addition to the maintainance of traditional Rightist parties, apparently emerge even some New small but fast growing Movements).

After initially winning at the 2009 Elections, Borisov's GERB Party already won, at the end of 2011,  also the Presidential Election with about 53% to 47% vis a vis the formerly governing "Socialist" party.

But, this time, the picture seems rather Complicated, and some last-minute "surprises" couldn't be excludedn even if they apparently should be of Minor nature, since the overall Popular preference for the Center-Right looks unquestionably much Stronger, (while the Participation reached a Majority of about + 51,5 % until 9 p.m.).

In particular :

Bulgarian Election: Center Right (GERB + Attaka) wins about 40% , while even a new Rightist Party (of "National Liberation") would reportedly be close to the threshhold  allowing to enter the Parliament for the 1st time, against only 36,4% for the Socialo-Turkish parties of the outgoing opposition, which had previously governed the country for a long time, until it fell into the 2009 Economic Crisis and Corruption scandals.
GERB Party comes clearly First with more than 31 %, while "Socialists" have only 27  %/, with probably some 98 against 75 MPs each.

"Attaka"s Nationalists and  the "Turkish" Minority party would result at about 7,5 %  to 9,7 %  or so, taking some 23 and 33 MPs respectively.

The New Rightist party NLB (which currently stands at about 3,8 %, i.e. close to the 4% threshhold) might hold a key to further developments, if its entry to the Parliament is confirmed, according to observers, while the "Left" apparently expects from last-minute .... "votes coming from Turkey" (sic !) to eventually alter this overall results...

As things stand until now, a possible formula might reportedly be for GERB (which means "Citizens for European Development") to form a Minoriyu Government with a deal for support by Attaka (and/or , eventually of the New Rightist Paty NLB) in the Parliament, (i.e. a kind of former "Dutch formula").

On the contrary, observers admit that it would be impossible for Attaka to stick to the Socialo-Turkish parties, mainly because it's notoriously Critic vis a vis Turkey's controversial policies.


But another serious problem is also the Astonishing fact that more almost 25%, i.e. 1 out of 4 Votes casted risk to stay without any Representation in the Parliament, because until now the official results don't give more than 4% (the rather High Threshhold for getting elected MPs) to anyone among the numerous New or old Other Parties to which many Bulgarian Citizens have Dispersed their votes..

However, a Detailed and concrete Analysis of all currently available results, (reportedly representing some 99,6% of the Total of Votes), clearly reveals that Most of those Dispersed Votes point towards Center Right up to Rightist new or old small Parties, resulting in an overall overwhelming Popular aspiration to have a new kind of Government at the Right side of the Political spectrum :

Thus, f.ex. the GERB and Attak groups could logically attract also the New "National Salvation" party, as well as the "Bulgarian National movement", the "Leader" party, and the "Order, Law and Justice"  party, resulting in more than the Absolute Majority of valid Votes casted :  + 50,17 %

(i.e. : 31% + 7,5% + 3,8 % + 2,92% + 1,9% + 1,76% + 1,71% +...). In fact, such a Majority of the Center-Right seems to be even Bigger than that, considering also some + 2% of more Votes casted for the "ChristianDemocratic" party, "Strong" and/or "Proud Bulgaria" a.o. small Nationalist parties, etc.

At the "Left" side, the former "Socialist" Party is obviously obliged to stick again with the Turkish lobby, and could attract Ms Kouneva's small "Movement of Bulgarian Citizens" party which didn't get any MP, arriving at less than 41 % only,  (i.e. 27,6% + 10% + 3,26 % = 40,86 %, ...etc).

Perhaps it might, eventually, be joined also by a few other, even smaller, non-represented parties, such as the "Greens", or "New Alternative", etc., which have hardly more than 1 % only.

The still remaining, Tiny, non-represented parties, who don't seem to have any clear political stance on the Left/Right Divide of the Political spectrum, (such as "Center", "Vox Populi", etc), don't represent but Negligeable variations of less than 2% or so, all in all, which obviously can't change the overall, general orientation, given the fact that the Total Difference between "Left" and "Right", as we already saw above, remains apparently more than + 10 % in favor of the Center-Right parties, led by Frontrunner GERB.

But, curiously, Final Results, (i.e. beyond the 99,6% already counted until today), are reportedly due for much Later this week, "on Thursday"...


(Sources : Central Electoral Commission of Bulgaria, National, Foreign and International Press Agencies, Wikipedia, etc).



Meanwhile, COE/OSCE Official Conclusions on the way that the Bulgarian Elections were organzed in practice, clearly appear mainly Positive :

In an official CoE Statement published later Today in Strasbourg, the competent Delegation of the PanEuropean Organisation for Human Rights, Democracy and Rule of Law, send by its Parliamentary Assembly to observe facts on the spot in cooperation with OSCE, and headed during the Vote by experienced Swiss MEP Andreas Gross (President of the Socialist Group), gave a "Green" Light to Sunday's Bulgarian Elections' process, by  stressing in conclusion that they were "Competitive and Well run".

- In particular, "fundamental Freedoms were respected, and the Administration of elections was well Managed". "The Campaign was Competitive and generally free of violence, and the caretaker government undertook several measures to hold Genuine elections". “Voters had a genuine Choice ....and the (Bulgarian) Authorities made real steps to uphold the Integrity of the election", so that "we have seen here ... Genuine efforts at holding democratic elections".

- The process was Well-administered by the Central Election Commission (CEC), which generally worked in an Open manner", while "the posting of CEC sessions on the Internet was a Welcome Transparency measure"  In addition, the "Election day took place in a Calm and orderly manner, with polling station Openings and Voting mostly assessed Positively... Tabulation, overall, was positive. The large Number of proxies and Observers present enhanced Transparency".

- Earlier, "the Media landscape during the campaign was Pluralistic", while "Public broadcasters and some private media granted contestants Free airtime on popular election-related programmes".

Finally, "the Legal framework for the elections generally provides a Sound basis ....when implemented properly", and several "Rrecommendations made by the OSCE... and the CoE were Adopted in recent amendments to the Electoral Code", they noted.

- However, several People's "Trust in process is lacking", CoE/OSCE Observers noted among some Critical Remarks on particular points :

F.ex., "pervasive Allegations of vote-buying" "affected Negatively the campaign environment", while, earlier,  it "was overshadowed by a number of Incidents" :
Thus, "public Confidence in the process" was "weakened" by "Cases of Pre-election wiretapping and Concerns over last-minute incidents related to ballot security". While "the campaign was, at times,  negative, with some parties using Inflammatory and xenophobic rhetoric", observers found.

- "Eoghan Murphy, the Special Co-ordinator who led the Short-term OSCE observer mission", reportedly said that "scandals (?) and the recent discovery of additional ballot papers without proper explanation, Undermined people’s Faith in the political system and, more worryingly, made Them Question the process itself". “When you look at the misTrust that exists between political parties, and at the current economic difficulties, this is a negative development.”

- Precisely, “All those who have been Elected have to address" the fact that “Lack of public Confidence in the electoral process, and the alienation of too many Bulgarians from their public institutions; remains a matter of concern,” said Andreas Gross, the head of the delegation from CoE's Assembly, (which appeared, generally, rather more satisfied than OSCE, but pointed at the need "to overcome the social and political crisis with which the Bulgarian people are confronted").

F. ex., to "improve Transparency", the CEC should be "providing more Information on the times of all of its Sessions, and the Basis for its Decisions", using also ""Legal provisions on campaign Financing", while "there were some concerns expressed about the independence of Lower election commissions", since "the Counting of ballots was more Problematic in a number of cases", observers noted.

Meanwhile, "Media ownership lacks transparency" : F.ex. "a significant share of the campaign information had to be Paid for, creating a playing field for candidates that was Not level and Limiting the public media’s role in providing voters with a broad range of information. Paid campaign information was not always clearly labelled as such, potentially Misleading voters about the sources of election-related messages".

So that, "in order to restore the Trust of Bulgarian citizens, ... the cycle of Impunity must be broken"  on some "serious violations during this campaign", which "have to be thoroughly Investigated and those responsible prosecuted,” reportedly added Miklós Haraszti, the Head of the OSCE/ODIHR Long-term election observation mission.

=> In conclusion, the Head of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly delegation, Roberto Battelli, reminded, as  a matter of General Principle, that : - "In many Countries we see systematic attacks on the credibility of the democratic institution of elections", while, in fact,  "it is only through Democratic institutions that social, Economic and Political Changes can be addressed effectively



(NDLR : "DraftNews", as already sent, earlier, to "EuroFora"s Subscribers/Donors. A more accurate, full Final Version might be published asap).


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ECHR's President to "EuroFora" on Journalists Gongadze and Adali murders : Principles must apply to all States, without discrimination.

+ ECHR's Statistics on Freedom of Expression (See below).

 European Court of Human Rights' President, Jean-Paul Costa, questioned by "EuroFora" on Journalists' murders, as in Gongadze and Adali's cases etc., strongly stressed all CoE Member States' obligation to make efficient Investigations to find and punish those responsible, and underlined that ECHR's case-law's principles must apply to all without any discrimination.

His call was clearly supported by various Top MEPs who denounced a risk of "Double Standards" if some Journalists' murders are investigated, while others don't.

To avoid such risks, CoE's Parliamentary Assembly adopted a Resolution, on the occasion of Ukranian Journalist Gongadze's murder, "stressing", as a matter of general Principle, "the importance it attaches to the safety of Journalists and political activists, especially those linked to opposition groups, in ALL member states of the CoE". All "crimes against journalists and political activists must be investigated ... as a matter of priority, without political interference".

Costa was replying to "EuroFora"s question on the fact that, after CoE's Committee of Ministers, also CoE's Assembly had just adopted a Resolution on Gongadze murder case, based on an ECHR's judgement of 2005, asking a full Investigation from Ukraine, who has found and condemned  in 10 years of jail 2 executants, but not yet the instigators.

While nothing similar was yet done for dissident Turkish Cypriot Kutlu Adali's murder, with 5 bullets shot at his head out of his Family's home in the territories of Cyprus occupied by Ankara's army, despite another ECHR's judgement of the same year 2005, and despite Turkey's claim that nobody was found among those responsible for the murder, and that there was nothing more to do..

In order to be credible and efficient, CoE's mechanisms shouldn't find a way to at least ask for full investigations of all Journalists' murders anywhere they might be committed, without exceptions ?


- "On the larger question that you raised, I'd like to say, since we are in a period of stock-taking on ECHR's 50 Years, that the Court's case-law developed certain concepts ....such as the Positive obligations of States, part of which are also the procedural obligations", started to reply ECHR's President.

 - "Whenever Journalists, Lawyers, Defenders of Human Rights, or even simple Citizens are murdered, the States are held responsible, not only if its their own security forces' agents who committed these murders, but also if they didn't make sufficiently substantial and efficient Investigations", he stressed.

- "I want to strongly underline that we (ECHR) have found in many cases numerous violations of Articles 2 and 3 against States, ....(about) murders or torture, ...because they didn't make enough Investigations in order to try to find and punish those responsible".

- "We (ECHR) do that vis-a-vis all 47 (CoE) Member States, without any discrimination".

"Naturally, the circumstances in each particular case may be differend, and we can't ommit to apply the rules of proof, or the rules of criminal procedure".

"But we try, by all means, to apply these principles of our case-law, to all States", he concluded.


      Costa's call was strongly supported by several Top CoE MEPs, from various Political areas

- "To investigate the murder of one Journalist, and not of another, looks like Double Standards", denounced the President of EuroLeft Group in CoE's Assembly, Dutch MEP Tiny Cox.  

- "What is the reason ? Politics or specificity of a case ? Of course, if Cyprus and Turkey are involved, it's always a Political case"..

- "Murders of Journalists should always be fully investigated, because killing Journalists is not only killing persons, but also killing Free Press".  "We (CoE's Assembly) should do our outmost to help People who are working on Free Press and they are under threat or murdered".

Because for Free Politics, Free Press is a pre-requisitive : Parliamentarians  cannot  function without a Free Press. Not investigating, is not protecting ourselves".

So we should investigate all Journalists' murders : We are talking about Gongadze, about the Cypriot man (Adali), about the Journalist murdered in Moscow one week ago, etc", Cox concluded

- "CoE can' look at these cases differently. CoE can't wear Blinckers  !".
- "If the one is investigated, so has to be also the other. Why there wasn't full investigation ? Why's that ?", wondered British  Socialist MEP, Alan Meale.

- "A good idea" would be to "make a Motion for Resolution", and "join all Journalists' murders. Adali and Gongadze etc", said to "EuroFora" EU Parliament Political affairs Committee's President, Goran Lindbland, ChristianDemocrat MEP from Sweden.

(See also earlier News at "EuroFora" on similar issues).

ECHR's Statistics on Freedom of Expression :

    Almost Half of condemnations by ECHR for violations of Freedom of Expression in 2008, concern Turkey : 20 out of a total of 48 for all CoE's Member States.

    Russia, Poland, France and Moldova were condemned only 3 times. Romania, Greece, Portugal, 2 times, and the other CoE Member States only 1 time, or none.
    During the last Decade : 1998 - 2008, Turkey was condemned for violating Freedom of Expression in ..169 cases, while Austria only in 24.

    France and Moldova in 14 and 13, respectively, closely followed by Russia and Poland with 11 and 10, respectively. The rest of CoE Member States had less than ten condemnations.    


2009 EU Elections were won by Parties against Technocracy and Turkey's controversial EU bid, while the 1999-2004 Majority Abstention trend decelerated. What should be done in 2009-2014 ?


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