Bulgaria: People Vote + 51% Absolute Majority to the Right, only 40,8% to "Left"-Turkish groups

The Bulgarian People gave a crystal-clear preference to Center-Right parties in the crucial National Elections of this Sunday, which gather, all in all, a Total of Votes much Bigger than an Absolute Majority of some 51 % against only about 40,8 % to the "Left" side of the Political spectrum, where the former "Socialist" party is again obliged to deal with a smaller pro-Turkish grouplet, (while, on the contrary, at the Right side, in addition to the maintainance of traditional Rightist parties, apparently emerge even some New small but fast growing Movements).

After initially winning at the 2009 Elections, Borisov's GERB Party already won, at the end of 2011,  also the Presidential Election with about 53% to 47% vis a vis the formerly governing "Socialist" party.

But, this time, the picture seems rather Complicated, and some last-minute "surprises" couldn't be excludedn even if they apparently should be of Minor nature, since the overall Popular preference for the Center-Right looks unquestionably much Stronger, (while the Participation reached a Majority of about + 51,5 % until 9 p.m.).

In particular :

Bulgarian Election: Center Right (GERB + Attaka) wins about 40% , while even a new Rightist Party (of "National Liberation") would reportedly be close to the threshhold  allowing to enter the Parliament for the 1st time, against only 36,4% for the Socialo-Turkish parties of the outgoing opposition, which had previously governed the country for a long time, until it fell into the 2009 Economic Crisis and Corruption scandals.
GERB Party comes clearly First with more than 31 %, while "Socialists" have only 27  %/, with probably some 98 against 75 MPs each.

"Attaka"s Nationalists and  the "Turkish" Minority party would result at about 7,5 %  to 9,7 %  or so, taking some 23 and 33 MPs respectively.

The New Rightist party NLB (which currently stands at about 3,8 %, i.e. close to the 4% threshhold) might hold a key to further developments, if its entry to the Parliament is confirmed, according to observers, while the "Left" apparently expects from last-minute .... "votes coming from Turkey" (sic !) to eventually alter this overall results...

As things stand until now, a possible formula might reportedly be for GERB (which means "Citizens for European Development") to form a Minoriyu Government with a deal for support by Attaka (and/or , eventually of the New Rightist Paty NLB) in the Parliament, (i.e. a kind of former "Dutch formula").

On the contrary, observers admit that it would be impossible for Attaka to stick to the Socialo-Turkish parties, mainly because it's notoriously Critic vis a vis Turkey's controversial policies.

But another serious problem is also the Astonishing fact that more almost 25%, i.e. 1 out of 4 Votes casted risk to stay without any Representation in the Parliament, because until now the official results don't give more than 4% (the rather High Threshhold for getting elected MPs) to anyone among the numerous New or old Other Parties to which many Bulgarian Citizens have Dispersed their votes..

However, a Detailed and concrete Analysis of all currently available results, (reportedly representing some 99,6% of the Total of Votes), clearly reveals that Most of those Dispersed Votes point towards Center Right up to Rightist new or old small Parties, resulting in an overall overwhelming Popular aspiration to have a new kind of Government at the Right side of the Political spectrum :

Thus, f.ex. the GERB and Attak groups could logically attract also the New "National Salvation" party, as well as the "Bulgarian National movement", the "Leader" party, and the "Order, Law and Justice"  party, resulting in more than the Absolute Majority of valid Votes casted :  + 50,17 %

(i.e. : 31% + 7,5% + 3,8 % + 2,92% + 1,9% + 1,76% + 1,71% +...). In fact, such a Majority of the Center-Right seems to be even Bigger than that, considering also some + 2% of more Votes casted for the "ChristianDemocratic" party, "Strong" and/or "Proud Bulgaria" a.o. small Nationalist parties, etc.

At the "Left" side, the former "Socialist" Party is obviously obliged to stick again with the Turkish lobby, and could attract Ms Kouneva's small "Movement of Bulgarian Citizens" party which didn't get any MP, arriving at less than 41 % only,  (i.e. 27,6% + 10% + 3,26 % = 40,86 %, ...etc).

Perhaps it might, eventually, be joined also by a few other, even smaller, non-represented parties, such as the "Greens", or "New Alternative", etc., which have hardly more than 1 % only.

The still remaining, Tiny, non-represented parties, who don't seem to have any clear political stance on the Left/Right Divide of the Political spectrum, (such as "Center", "Vox Populi", etc), don't represent but Negligeable variations of less than 2% or so, all in all, which obviously can't change the overall, general orientation, given the fact that the Total Difference between "Left" and "Right", as we already saw above, remains apparently more than + 10 % in favor of the Center-Right parties, led by Frontrunner GERB.

But, curiously, Final Results, (i.e. beyond the 99,6% already counted until today), are reportedly due for much Later this week, "on Thursday"...

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(Sources : Central Electoral Commission of Bulgaria, National, Foreign and International Press Agencies, Wikipedia, etc).

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Meanwhile, COE/OSCE Official Conclusions on the way that the Bulgarian Elections were organzed in practice, clearly appear mainly Positive :

In an official CoE Statement published later Today in Strasbourg, the competent Delegation of the PanEuropean Organisation for Human Rights, Democracy and Rule of Law, send by its Parliamentary Assembly to observe facts on the spot in cooperation with OSCE, and headed during the Vote by experienced Swiss MEP Andreas Gross (President of the Socialist Group), gave a "Green" Light to Sunday's Bulgarian Elections' process, by  stressing in conclusion that they were "Competitive and Well run".

- In particular, "fundamental Freedoms were respected, and the Administration of elections was well Managed". "The Campaign was Competitive and generally free of violence, and the caretaker government undertook several measures to hold Genuine elections". “Voters had a genuine Choice ....and the (Bulgarian) Authorities made real steps to uphold the Integrity of the election", so that "we have seen here ... Genuine efforts at holding democratic elections".

- The process was Well-administered by the Central Election Commission (CEC), which generally worked in an Open manner", while "the posting of CEC sessions on the Internet was a Welcome Transparency measure"  In addition, the "Election day took place in a Calm and orderly manner, with polling station Openings and Voting mostly assessed Positively... Tabulation, overall, was positive. The large Number of proxies and Observers present enhanced Transparency".

- Earlier, "the Media landscape during the campaign was Pluralistic", while "Public broadcasters and some private media granted contestants Free airtime on popular election-related programmes".

Finally, "the Legal framework for the elections generally provides a Sound basis ....when implemented properly", and several "Rrecommendations made by the OSCE... and the CoE were Adopted in recent amendments to the Electoral Code", they noted.
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- However, several People's "Trust in process is lacking", CoE/OSCE Observers noted among some Critical Remarks on particular points :

F.ex., "pervasive Allegations of vote-buying" "affected Negatively the campaign environment", while, earlier,  it "was overshadowed by a number of Incidents" :
Thus, "public Confidence in the process" was "weakened" by "Cases of Pre-election wiretapping and Concerns over last-minute incidents related to ballot security". While "the campaign was, at times,  negative, with some parties using Inflammatory and xenophobic rhetoric", observers found.

- "Eoghan Murphy, the Special Co-ordinator who led the Short-term OSCE observer mission", reportedly said that "scandals (?) and the recent discovery of additional ballot papers without proper explanation, Undermined people’s Faith in the political system and, more worryingly, made Them Question the process itself". “When you look at the misTrust that exists between political parties, and at the current economic difficulties, this is a negative development.”

- Precisely, “All those who have been Elected have to address" the fact that “Lack of public Confidence in the electoral process, and the alienation of too many Bulgarians from their public institutions; remains a matter of concern,” said Andreas Gross, the head of the delegation from CoE's Assembly, (which appeared, generally, rather more satisfied than OSCE, but pointed at the need "to overcome the social and political crisis with which the Bulgarian people are confronted").

F. ex., to "improve Transparency", the CEC should be "providing more Information on the times of all of its Sessions, and the Basis for its Decisions", using also ""Legal provisions on campaign Financing", while "there were some concerns expressed about the independence of Lower election commissions", since "the Counting of ballots was more Problematic in a number of cases", observers noted.

Meanwhile, "Media ownership lacks transparency" : F.ex. "a significant share of the campaign information had to be Paid for, creating a playing field for candidates that was Not level and Limiting the public media’s role in providing voters with a broad range of information. Paid campaign information was not always clearly labelled as such, potentially Misleading voters about the sources of election-related messages".

So that, "in order to restore the Trust of Bulgarian citizens, ... the cycle of Impunity must be broken"  on some "serious violations during this campaign", which "have to be thoroughly Investigated and those responsible prosecuted,” reportedly added Miklós Haraszti, the Head of the OSCE/ODIHR Long-term election observation mission.

=> In conclusion, the Head of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly delegation, Roberto Battelli, reminded, as  a matter of General Principle, that : - "In many Countries we see systematic attacks on the credibility of the democratic institution of elections", while, in fact,  "it is only through Democratic institutions that social, Economic and Political Changes can be addressed effectively