2015 Elections in Greece may have Surprising EU Repercussions...

 

*Strasbourg/News-Viewpoint/Angelo Marcopolo/- The expected Winner of January 2015 Elections in Greece, Alexis Tsipras of the Leftist "SYRIZA", had already his First Contacts with 2 out of 3 Top EU Political Leaders who are expected this week in Strasbourg : French President Francois Hollande, who was among the first to congratulate him, and EU Parliament's President Martin Schultz, who reportedly decided to travel to Athens to meet him directly, while the 3rd, and more eagerly awaited both by Financial Markets and Political Observers : German Chancelor Angie Merkel, is expected to react in PublicTomorrow, Monday.

In fact, however, Hollande and Merkel, who are due to meet exceptionaly in Strasbourg at the End of this week : on Friday, January 30, at the invitation of Schulz, in a "Blaesheim" format of Franco-German discussion on the "Future of Europe", and particularly of the €uroZone, (Comp. : .....), i.e. on issues closely related to the Consequences that these Greek Elections might have vis a vis the rest of Europe, (a perspective which has been always at the forefront of Tsipras' pre-electoral statements, as well as of his declared and undeclared allies in other EU Countries), might already start to observe several possible unexpected surprises, unforeseen at first sight...

SYRIZA's "New Left", clearly won these Elections, as all previous Polls had predicted, and with a rather bigger than initially expected margin of difference to the Center-Right Party of outgoing Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, "New Democracy", getting some 36% against 27,5%, (I.e. arriving 1st with about +7,5% more), but it didn't yet get any Majority of MPs in the National Parliament, with "only" 149 seats instead of at least 151 required in order to be Autonomous.

Naturally, Tsipras might make a small Coalition, mainly with one or both among 2 apparently available Small Parties :  the a Total Newcomer,  rather Opportunist Center-Left Party called "Potami", (which means : "River" !), with about 5,5% and at least 16 MPs, made by a former Journalist at the controversial National RadioTV organism ERT, who has been criticized for Clientelism/Nepotism and even too High Salaries, particularly for "Potami"'s chief, Theodorakis, (No relation to the world-famous Musician), supported by mainstream Media, and/or the more neo-classic "Independent Greeks" Centrist party of Gianis Kamenos, with 4,8% of votes and 13 MPs, with whom he has already arranged a First Meeting on Monday.

But, a Problem is that most "Independent Greeks"' MPs came from the Center-Right party of Samaras, "New Democracy", and often held at least some Political Positions more at his Right, than towards its Left side, so that their eventual "CoHabitation" with Leftist Tsipras looks Unpredictable ! As for the quite opportunist party "Potami", its Center-Left orientation certainly seems to fit better with Tsipras, but its Total Lack of Experience, and the unknown character of its MPs, inevitably leave many Question Marks open for the Future ...

Most important : Even if he gets going such an Alliance, Tsipras couldn't easily go further than a few Weeks or Months time without solving, at first, the Thorny Institutional Question of the Election of a New President of the Greek Republic, something for which a ReinForced Majority is needed, of Two Thirds (2/3) of the Total Number of MPs, i.e. at least 181 MPs. A Barrier that Samaras had tried to overcome since the End of Last Year (2014), but didn't manage...

It's certainly not the "Communist Party" (KKE) which would rescue Tsipras, since these Two Parties (remnants of a Bitter Split between 2 Opposed Parts of the Historic Greek CP) have been notoriously Quarelling one against the other, since a Long Time, (including even inside EU Parliament, where, after the latest, May 2014 EU Elections, appeared the unprecedented Paradox to see those "pure" "Communist" MPs quit the former "EuroLeft" Group, (precisely because of their Historic Opposition vis a vis SYRIZA, also in that same Group), and join,, instead, the "Non Aligned" Group for stray MEPs, where they work together with .... Marine Le Pen, Head of the notorious French Rightist Party "National Front" !

Meanwhiole, the mainstream Center-Right Party "New Democracy", of outgoing Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, has managed to Preserve most of its Forces : It keeps in 2015 almost 28% instead of about 29,5 % of  Votes back on 2012 Elections, despite an exceptionaly Hard period of Austerity, and will have, thus, an important capacity to lead the Opposition ready for an eventual return to Power at the 1st occasion...F.ex. if Tsipras fails to find a Presidential candidate of General acceptance, so that New Parliamentary Elections become Necess    ary, according to the Constitution, and/or if the Financial/Economic developments about the Public Debt make it necessary, etc.
The "New Democracy" Party being, from now on, at last Free from any Need of more controversial CoHabitation with the remnants of the "Socialist" Party of "PASOK", (which had notoriously Hampered its action for all those years since the End of 2011 until the Beginning of 2014),  it can now also search and develop a New Political Strategy, of its own, able to attract Voters anew and Better Serve the real Interets of Greece and Europe.

+ But the greatest Suprise of these January 2015 Elections in Greece is that the Rightist Party "Golden Dawn" succeeded to become the 3rd Political party of the Country, with about 6,30%  and some 18 MPs, (i.e. Ahead of "Potami" with more than +15.000 Voters more). i.e. Maintaining almost all its Forces since its landmark 1st Win at the previous, 2012 National Greeek Elections of 2012, despite having his Chief, its Political Leadership, and almost all its MEPs still Jailed in Prison at prolonged Pre-Trial Detention for Controversial Accusations, their Salaries Cut 100%, Muzzled by all Medias of the Establishment, even its Website Attacked and Blocked, its Militants and/or Candidate MPs violently Aggressed and/or Threatened, bombs thrown at its Offirces, but reportedly abandoned by the Police without any Protection, (etc) ! Such an Astonishing Capacity of Resistance, obviously shows a Potential of Popularity which would certainly Grow Fast in normal circumstances of Free and Safe Political Work. 

In fact, what makes several People to be attracted and stick to "Golden Dawn", (which used to be a negligeable quantity of less than ...0,22% in the Past, instead of some + 6,5% Today, and even more than +10% in the latest, May 2014 EU Election, +15% in the February 2014 Local Elections in >Athens, etc), has nothing to do with Right/Left traditional politics, but it's mainly due to the Fact that "GD" still has a Strong "Anti-Corruption" Agenda, at the same time that it cultivates an impression of "Untouchables" for its Members : I.e. ingrediants both useful when it comes to Countries with a long Past of former Clientelist/Nepotist Governments, as in Greece with "PASOK" since 1981). F. ex., one of "GD"s Propaganda Video-clips claims that "Contrary to others, even the Smallest Parties, we don't get from the absolutely Nothing, not even a Dime. But we manage to run our Party quite well, and develop its activities, to have Offices throughout  the Country, and even to Distribute Free Food to Poor People", such Videos go on to say, (obviously impressing, at first sight, anyone accustomed to live in a Debt-ridden Country, with an excessive Number of more or less Counter-productive and often abusive, selfish Civil Servants, DisProproportionate vis a vis the National GDP)...
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    On the Contrary, the Biggest Looser in these January 2015 Greek Elections is the former long-time Governing or Co-Governing in the Past, "Socialist" PASOK Party, which accelerates now its Fall, from previously 3rd (back on 2012, but always 1st or 2nd for more than 30 Years in the Past), now only .....7th (Seventh) in the row, far Behind "SYRIZA", "New Democracy", "Golden Dawn", "Potami (River)", "Communist Party", "Independent Greeks",... it gets roughly more than ....4 % of the Votes now, (i.e. just above the Threshhold of 3%, under which a Party doesn't get any MP at all) !

    Even a long-time Top "PASOK" Political Leader, also from a Family of Politicians who have served through Many Generations as former Prime Ministers of Greece : "PASOK"s former Head, Giorgos Papandreou, who was obliged now to create a "New" Party of "SocialDemocrats", failed to get more than only a Tiny ... 2 %, being, for the First Time in, his Life,  Excluded from the Parliament...
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    => Thus, it becomes Obvious that, while the Right side of the Political Spectrum managed, more or less, to Keep its Political Forces for the Future, (Comp. Supra), on the Contrary, it's  mainly the Former "Socialist" "PASOK" Voters who left that Old Party in order to enter inside the Leftist "SYRIZA"  of Tsipras, (who looks as a New Leader of an Old Herd of Sheep)...

    Indeed, the Right side of Greece's Political Spectrum includes Today, in addition to Center-Right "New Democracy"s almost 28%, also Rightist "Golden Dawn"'s  6,5%, even "Independent Greeks"' 4,5%", (indeed, despite a probable Coalition with SYRIZA, they notoriously are coming from Center-Right movements, particularly former "ND", etc, and could Not agree with Tsipras on all issues, as f.ex. vis a vis Turkey, the Church, BioEthics, etc., where Differences of Views seem Unavoidable), as well as about + 5 % more from 4 OTHER Smaller New Parties, which didn't reach the 3% Threshhold in order to get any MP, but appear to belong, Politically, to the Right, such as, f.ex. : "Centrist Union", "Point", "Popular Orthodox Rally", "Union of National Democratic Reform", etc.

    => All this is tantamount to almost 45 % of Jan. 2015 Votes, (to which might, eventually, be added even Today's PASOK, led by Venizelos, which looks rather as an opportunist Centrist small Party, likely to lean more towards the Right, than the Left side, according to the overall Context, so that an absolute Majority of 50%+ might be reached by adding various Center-Right groupings)...
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    Comparatively, from the Left side of the Political Spectrum, SYRIZA's 35+%, perhaps added to "Potami"s 5,5% opportunists, at least partly, and/or, eventualy to "KKE"'s 5% "Communists", (vis a vis whom, however, SYRIZA is engaged in a Radical Opposition : Comp. Supra), as well as Giorgos Papandreou's "SDM" with 2,3%, (even if he seems closer to the Centre Right), and almost 1,5% made of Three Tiny Parties which haven't crossed the 3% Threshold in order to have an independent MP, totaling about 49% of the Votes.

    => I.e, in fact, a Politically Divided Country almost into 2 Halves, slightly More Favorable to the Right side, taken all in all, (Comp. Supra).

    >>> Thus, Facts clearly show that the Greek Right, contrary to some Falses Appearances, has managed to SafeGuard its Political Forces, (might even be already at least slightly Higher than the Left side : Comp. Supra), and looks Ready to seize any opportunity for seizing the Power, this time without any Difforming "Co-Habitation" with PASOK or any assimilated opportunists....

    * At the same time, ipso-facto, it has also become clear, after all the Analysis of Facts presented above, that the Left side of the Greek Political Spectrum has NOT succeeded yet to really seize an unquestionable Majority of Citizens, neither any full Ideological or Political Power in Greece, despite a Manoeuvre of former PASOK's Voters, which may only give to Tsipras a part of strictly Institutional Power, (not very Stable, by the way),  but Nothing more.

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    Such an overall Impression is even more Strengthened also by the Impressive Fact of a Huge Abstention of more than 36 %, to which is added even 2,4% more of Voters, who curiously threw to the Ballot Box a "Nul" or "White" vote, (+ more than the Double of the previous Election of 2012)...

    => I.e. a Total of some 38,4% among Registered Voters, whose Political Intentions for the Present and the Future still remain Unknown : By far, the Biggest Party of Greece !

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+ "GRO-KO"s problems ?
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    Another interesting Conclusion Highlighted by Today's Facts in the January 2015 Greek Elections, is also that "Gross Coalitions", such as Germany's notorious "GRO-KO" between ChristianDemocrats of CDU/CSU  and SocialDemocrats of SPD, (to the great Astonishment of many, who had hoped that Angie Merkel's crystal-clear Win at the latest German Elections of September 2013, which have her almost an unprcedented 40% !, could have allowed her to really apply the Political Program that she had succesfully presented to the German People), risk, sooner than expected, to face similar Problems in Greece as in Germant, mutatis-mutandis :

    This goes particularly when Excessive Concessions are made by the Bigger Political Party, prefered by the People's Votes, to its "Junior Partner", (i.e. the formerly Opposed Party that Voters droped down), as f.ex. Samaras' "New Democracy" made vis a vis PASOK, mainly in the Public Sector, by keeping most Cashy Job Holders/Political Lackeys abusively appointed by former Clientelist./Nepotist Governments (mostly PASOK's) in the Past 30 Years (1981-2011+), and/or the German CDU/CSU vis a vis PSD, mainly in BioEthical and Socio-Cultural issues, (such as Same Sex "Marriages" and "Adoptions" of Children by Homosexuals, "Double Passport" to Turkish a.o. Non-European, Immigrants, U-turn back to "Multi-Kulti", Genetic Manipulations on Human Embryos, etc)...

    => In both cases, mutatis-mutandis, was soon observed the emergence of Similar phenomena, against which, everybody involved should be now Warned on Time : An unprecedented Trend towards a formerly "Leftist" Party, (such as "SYRIZA" in the Greek National Elections, or "Die Linke" party in Germany's Thuringia Länder, Comp.: http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/merkelisisislamicterrorismworseeventhanukraine.html , etc), added to the growing appearance of various Atypical New Socio-Political Movements at the (far ?) Right side, (such as "Golden Dawn", "Independent Greeks", etc. in Greece, and "Family Party", "AfD", "Pegida", etc. in Germany).

    As Chancelor Angie Merkel had apparently realized, f.ex. in her Speech at the latest CDU Partei Tag in Këln, recently, (Comp. Supra), it's only by, sooner or later, restoring a real and Strategy of a Modern Center-Right, faithful  to its main Pre-Electoral Promisses to the Citizens, (f.ex. in "small" Coalition with the FDP, or, if need be, with the "Greens", etc., but Not in a "Gro-Ko" with the "Socialists"), that the Trust of the People may be revitalized.

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 Samaras partial success opened a way for Tsipras ?...
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    Meanwhile, concerning particularly the case of nowadays Greece, from the point of view of its possible repercussions in European policy, Today, at least one (generaly unexpected) thing seems certain :

    - Paradoxically, it's Samaras partial Success into restoring a "Primary Surplus" in Greece's Budget, that, objectively, paved a way for Tripras' venue !...

    Indeed, even the Experienced pro-Leftist former long-time co-President of a pro-European "Green" Group of MEPs in EU Parliament, Franco-German MEP Daniel Kohn-Bendit, had clearly warned, earlier in Strassbourg, that, at least as long as the situation provoked in Greece by almost 30 Years of mainly "PASOK" Nepotist Governments (1981-2011+) made Impossible any Solution of the Public Debt problem in a way eventually inspired by the example of Argentina, simply because, in the conditions existing then in Greece, the State was condemned to have a "Structural Deficit", so that it was condemned to try to survive by more and more External Loans, without being realy able to risk being declared in Default.

    But, after Samaras succeeded, recently, after making several Reforms, to create a New Situation for Greece, where the State had restored its capacity to have a Primary Surplus, then, Tsipras might have, in theory, a Chance to try....     

    Last, but not least, all this is pointing, (as many protagonists have already declared), towards EU's Economic and Financial policies, so that, from now on, the focus obviously turns towards a European level, naturally including the forthcoming Franco-German Summit, Hollande - Merkel, at the invitation of EU Parliament's President Schulz, next week in Strasbourg.