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Home arrow newsitems arrow UK Election + BREXIT Chemistry : Get Farage out, and all goes astray ! But Why Now ?

UK Election + BREXIT Chemistry : Get Farage out, and all goes astray ! But Why Now ?

Parašė ACM
Thursday, June 08, 2017
uk_2017_election_results__eurofora_patchwork_400_01

*Strasbourg/Angelo Marcopolo/- 0ne Picture resumes Everything about these Surprising 2017 UK Elections. No Need to read Dozens of Pages, watch at so-called "Experts" in Boring Medias, follow a Long Series of Politicians' bla-bla, etc...Don't search for the Moon at Broad MidDay! Simply look at the Main Fact : What did the British People Vote for ?


One Number says it all :  - Without Farage, this time, the UKIP vanished, it dissolved in the air, and the Big Parties shared its Voters !


Back on 2015, Farage's UKIP had reached about 12 % of the Votes, but Now, on 2017, a "UKIP" withOut Farage, Fell Down to Only about 1,5%, i.e. Nothing...


Corbyn's Labour Party got almost 2/3 of it, and May's Conservatives 1/3, Augmenting Both their Votes now .


Why ? Simply because (as Farage reminds) Corbyn had suddenly made an U-Turn for BREXIT, against Mass Migration, etc., (i.e. practicaly Copied a part of Farage's main Issues), while May continued also on her Careful BREXIT path.


This stems also from the parallel Fact that, at the Same Time, 3 Pro-EU "Remain" and Anti-BREXIT small/medium Parties : the "Greens", Liberals-Dems, and the Scottish Autonomists, (who kept the Same Leaders as before, Contrary to the UKIP), All Faced voters' Losses : Even if the Lib-Dems limited their votes' Losses down to -0,5%, the Scots Lost almost -2%, the "Greens" Losing more : about - 2,5% less than before. I.e., Totaling another Loss of - 5% of Votes in 2017, compared to 2015.


(On the Contrary, the pro-BREXIT -even if "Soft"- DUP Conservative Party at Northern Ireland, won at least +0,3% more Votes : See also Infra).


=> All this Resulted into the UK Conservatives Winning almost + 6% More of Votes, Remaining the First Party of Great Britain, with about 42,5% of Voters, while the Labour (Socialists) won Even More: about + 10%, reaching almost 40% of Voters.

But, probably Because the Main Blame for the Latest 3 Islamist Terrorists' Deadly Attacks, cowardaly Targetting Civilian People, twice in London and once in Manchester, was First addressed against Prime Minister Theresa May's Governing Conservatives, (partly also by the Right Side in the Conservative Party), instead of realizing the Fact that All of these ISIS' Attacks occured in 2 Cities whose Mayors were Labour ("Socialists" : including even Controversial Heads of local Police : Comp.: ...+...), and in which a Growing Islamization had already provoked Exceptionaly Big Muslim Minorities in deepening Cultural "Ghettos", (f.ex. more than 14 % in London and + 16 % in Manchester), Paradoxically, Westminster got - 13 Less Conservative MPs tha before, and + 30 More Labour MPs than back on 2015. (Possibly also due to the Fact that Labour "Socialists" usual Clientelist policies, Focused on certain Local Areas, served to get More New MPs than Conservatives, whose Ideological/Political Influence was more Spread all over the Country, given UK's special "1st Taks All" electoral system).


However, since the Conservatives remain the Biggest Political Party of Great Britain, with 318 MPs, (compared to "only" 262 for Labour), neverheless, Theresa May hopes to Keep the Government going, thanks also to a Support from the DUP : the Democratic Unionist Party of Norhern Island, which Wins +2 MPs More in 2017, (passing from 8 to 10), so that, in Addition, eventualy, also of some "Other", Independent and/or Smaller Parties' MPs, (13 in all), May might Reach the Absolute Majority threshhold of 326 MPs, (i.e. just +10 more, than what she already has got).


And this, even if the Liberal-Dems, (who had already forged a Governing Coalition with the Conservatives, back on 2010), this Time said that they wouldn't like a coalition with Neither among the 2 Biggest Parties now.


---------------------------------------


The Reason for which Farage's exceptional Absence from this UKIP Campaign 2017 was the Main Factor which provoked a 2nd Political "Earthquake" Now, after that of the 2016's "BREXIT" Referendum, (which had been also UnExpected by Polls), obviously is also that his usual Strong Ideological, Argumentary and Socio-Political Push lacked, this time, to an Alternative UKIP's InExperienced Leadership, which didn't manage, f.ex., to find anything more Interesting to say in 2017, as its Electoral Campaign Moto, than a mere ...Copy of French "Social-Liberal" Macron's own moto, i the 2nd Round of the Presidential Election : "For France, Together !", transposed as "For Britain, Together !"... Macron's truc, apparently, didn't work at all vis a vis the British People...

I.e., Nothing to do with the Famous, Nigel Farage's Headline Moto for UKIP's Biggest ever Win at the 2009 EU Parliament's Elections, which read : - "No to Turkey's Accession into the EU !", (when the British People boosted UKIP's MEPs from only 2 up to 19, allowing them to form, later-on, even a Brand New Political Group, etc).


Even Less with Farage's 2015 UKIP, which strongly Fought both against controversial and Unpopular "Gay Marriage", with Children submitted to Homosexuals' power under Pretext of so-called "Adoption", etc, (Same Positions with those Defended by DUP of Norhern Ireland until Today : Comp. Supra), and against Tony Blair's damned anti-Legacy, whose Heavy Responsibilities (including for Iraq's Foreign Military Invasion/Occupation since Back on 2003, etc), were at least partly Denounced by a Long Official UK Report at the Beginning of Summer 2016, (etc), as well as against the Risks provoked by that 2015-2016 sudden "Tsunami" of Mass Asylum Seekers/Irregular Migrants coming via Turkish' Smugglers inside Europe through EU and Shengen's Member Greece's Border laxist Leftist Government, followed by Stern Warnings also against Ankara Government's claim for more than 80 Millions of Turks to get a "VISA-FREE" status, allowing them to Enter and Stay inside the EU, whenever they like, during at least 6 Months each Year, (etc)...  


Lacking such Strong Political Arguments, as it was also reflected by its  ...Macron-inspired "Pass-Partout" vague Campaign Moto "for Britain, Together", (Comp. Supra), in Addition to Nigel Farage's personal Rhetoric capacities, (meanwhile focused much more on his New Job as ...Journalist at LBC Radio), following his Exceptional Decision to Resign from UKIP's Leadership just after BREXIT Referendum back on 2016, and Remain at EU Parliament, as President of the EFDD Group of MEPs even now on 2017, (etc), it was Inevitable for nowadays UKIP, (which wasn't, in fact, but only a Ghost of its Earlier shelf), to Fail to attract People, particularly since Both the 2 Biggest Parties of the Country started to claim that they pursued an Agenda Respectful of the 2016 Referendum's Agenda, (Comp. Supra).


A we have clearly Analysed previously (See, f.ex. : ....), "BREXIT"s Unexpected success on 2016, was, in reality, Due also to certain Issues which had Nothing to do with a so-called "Anti-European" stance, but rather with the Fact that People could No more Find Anyone from the Establishment to Defend them efficiently, and Even to some Issues which could, in fact, be considered to be, in Substance, rather the Opposite : i.e. Pro-European positions, that some mainstream Politicians had Betrayed, (f.ex. on European Culture, Population, Christian roots, Fight agains Islamist Terrorism, Peaceful relations with Russia, but also Syria, BioEthical Values, People's Access to Health Care, Protection of External Borders from Mass Immigration as that which was suddenly brought by Turkish Smugglers provoking a lot of Unprecedented Problems and Risks for EU Citizens and even for real refugees, etc).


------------------------------------------------


All these Facts and Events, Now, by Resulting, at least for the Time being, in a "Hang" Parliament, (i.e. without an a priori Explicit and Full Absolute Majority Government : the DUP supporting the Conservatives according to a Special Arrangement, withOut directly participating in Ministerial posts), inevitably Provoke, as far as the EU is concernced, in relation with the still Pending Issue of UK's "BREXIT", precisely that Problem which had been, already, Denounced as "No 1" Danger, as Early as since the 1st EU Summit in Brussels just after the BREXIT Referendum, back on June 2016, by the Experienced Secretary General of ChristianDemocrat/EPP Party, Spanish MEP Lopez Istures, speaking to "Eurofora" on the spot, (See : http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/eppsummitoutcomeafterbrexit.html ) : I.e., More "UnCertainties".


This was also Stressed, Now, by EU's High Representative for External Actions, former Foreign Minister of Italy, Federica Mogerini, who reportedly Denounced the Fact that, even 1 Year after the Referendum, we still doN't know the UK position on Brexit, and it seems Difficult to Predict When we will...


While Even BREXIT's spiritual "Father", former Long-Time UKIP's President, Nigel Farage, reportedly Criticized, (according to Mainstream "ITV" Media), that, just after this Latest UK Election, "quite Frankly, I doN't know what's going to happen here !", (sic).


=> In such a Context, it's understandable, but also quite Unconvincing, that BBC's Main News Story runs Now on British Prime Minister Theresa May's "promise to provide <<Certainty>>", as she reportedly found as more Important to say...

--------------------------------------------------------------------


+ Moreover, mainstream UK Media Started to speak about a so-called "Soft" PREXIT, as a Result of this Election.


And even Farage, reportedly Warned that "we're going to see a significant Backslide on BREXIT".

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Last, but not least, Many might, Legitimately, raise the Question : - "WHY all this, happens NOW ?"


To what, several other Experienced Observers, are enclined to Reply, in substance, by pointing, mainly, at German Chancellor Angie Merkel's widely commented (even at the US White House !) alleged Wording, (reportedly used shortly after the Latest NATO and G7 Summits), that "Europeans have now to take care by themselves, without waiting no more for others to do that for them"...


Something which, particularly if it's related also to Security - Defence Policies, notoriously meets the Diachronic positions of all those who have served as Presidents of France, regardless of political parties or individual persons.


And, when even the most Recent moves by EU Commission's President, experienced former Long-Time Prime Minister of Luxembourg and EuroGroup's Chairman, Jean-Claude Juncker, reportedly Head, precisely towards that same Direction of Boosting EU's own, Autonomous Security-Defense Policy, at the eve of the forthcoming, June 2017 EU Heads of State/Governments' Summit in Brussels, (i.e. something that Neither the UK's establishment itself, as well as some much Wider Global Circles, have NEVER accepted), then, at least a great part of what Surprizing and/or UnExpected things happened in this "Bumpy" UK General Election, may become much more Easy to Guess...

 

 + Particularly since, in Addition, (as "Eurofora" has some recent Factual reasons to suppose), it's not at all excluded that even Turkey might be, in Secret, (i.e. without admitting that yet in Public), currently Watching what could happen with UK's Brexit, in order to, eventualy, revendicate a Similar solution also for itself, in the foreseable Future...

 

 

(../..)


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***


(NDLR : Partly UPDATED)

+

("DraftNews", as already send to "Eurofora" Subsrcribers/Donords, earlier. A more accurate, full Final Version, might be Published asap).


***


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People in Europe and the World expect from CoE to make a succes of its "Monitoring" for Human Rights and Democracy, despite difficulties, said Finland's President Tarja Halonen to "EuroFora" at a crucial moment for the mecanism built 15 years ago by the paneuropean organization which celebrates its 60th Anniversary in 2009.

Halonen, known as "Mother" of CoE's "Monitoring" mecanism, a long-time MEP and former Foreign Minister before becoming Finland's President, holds a long experience in the mattter, after also serving twice as CoE and EU Chairwoman in the past. That's why she is well placed to judge how CoE's "monitoring" should deal today with some crucial issues of importance both to CoE and to the EU.

The move came just a Month before a crucial, last visit to Turkey, scheduled for June, by the President of CoE''s "Monitoring" Committee, Ukranian MEP Serge Holovaty, to finalize his Report on Ankara, the CoE Member State with the longest Monitoring procedure. From its results depends its overall credibility.

This is a Test-case, because, in fact, it's in order to avoid Sanctions threatened against Turkey by a CoE's Assembly's April 1995 Resolution for grave Human Rights violations, Democracy gaps, the continuing Military Occupation in Cyprus, the unresolved Kurdish problem, Aegean differend with Greece, etc., that MEPs decided to create, for the 1st time on April 1996, a "Monitoring" proces, allegedly destinated to check, without excluding Countries who did not fulfill all CoE's standards.

In the Past, the obliged withdrawal of Greece's Military regime and of its "Civil" cover-up out of the CoE had helped bring back Democracy in 1974. But, on the contrary, since April 1996, the idea was to "monitor" Human Rights' respect while keeping most concerned Countries inside the CoE. After Turkey's oldest example, this was extended also to several former "Eastern" European Countries, even if CoE's Assembly has imposed to some of them (fex. Ukraine, Russia, etc., after Belarus, Serbia, etc) various "Sanctions", that Ankara always avoided. Curiously more succesful even than .. USA itself, (a CoE "Observer" since 1995), which has been at least threatened with sanctions some years ago..

EU-effects of CoE's Monitoring process became obvious between 2001-2008, since the "closure" of this procedure, when CoE felt that a Country had met most of its Human Rights, Democracy and Rule of Law obligations, (i.e. the "Copenhagen Criteria" for the EU), helped trigger Negotiations with the EU for "Accession" or other closer relations : This occured already before the 2004 and 2007 EU Enlargements to former "Eastern" European Countries, as well as for the commencement of "accession" negotiations with Croatia, and of "open-ended" negotiations with Turkey in 2005.

    But a stricking new development are Holovaty's recent findings that on core Human Rights issues as Torture and Freedom of Expression, Turkey, even "5 Years after" CoE closed its "Monitoring", back in 2004, inciting EU to start accession Negotiations in 2005, still presents grave problems.

    His findings are of crucial importance after a 2008 CoE Resolution called, "if need be", to "seriously consider the possibility of Re-Opening the Monitoring procedure for Turkey" : A move which might affect Ankara's controversial EU bid, since EU Accession Negotiations are based on the Hypothesis that the Candidate fullfils the "Copenhagen Criteria" (See above)..
-------------------------
    Holovaty expressed his will to check  "Matters still Outstanding" and  those that he "didn't have an opportunity to discuss" at an earlier visit this year, "in order to discuss the more complex issues in greater depth", at his forthcoming New Visit to Ankara, before the December 2009 EU Summit.  This is all based on the 2004 CoE Resolution which stresses that, CoE "will continue.. post-monitoring Dialogue with the Turkish authorities,...in addition to a 12-points list,..and on any Other Matter that might arise in connection with Turkey’s Obligations as a CoE member state".

    CoE's Resolution also asks  from Turkey "to secure the proper Implementation of Judgements, particularly in the Cyprus v. Turkey InterState case", of 2001, which concerns also the plight of many Hundreds of MISSING People. It adds Turkey's obligations to "execute" ECHR's Judgements in the Loizidou case,..and in particular adopt General Measures to avoid repetition or continuation of Violations found by the Court" to the detriment of Refugees.

    Nevertheless, Holovaty said to "EuroFora" that "MISSING" persons,"might be included" and cannot be excluded, but he has yet to examine the situation "to find out  which issues will be raised" to the Turkish Government.

    Therefore, "EuroFora" asked Halonen, as the Historic "Mother" of CoE's Monitoring mecanism, if she thought that, "whenever there are grave Human Rights Violations, as fex. "MISSING" persons, attested even by ECHR's judgements, they should be always checked by a Monitoring process. Or could they be forgotten ?"
    
     - "We (CoE) must be, at the same time, Fair, Realistic, but not in the mind that "now we have Forgotten", etc., replied to "EuroFora"'s question Halonen, speaking as a matter of general principle.

    - "When we think of those People that are suffering from the lack of Democracy, of Human Rights, and of the Rule of Law", "we should find a base on how to deal with the (Monitoring) system more rapidly"', she stressed.

    - "Sometimes it's very difficult to combine Transparency and Effectivenes together, particularly in this specific case", she went on to say. But, "I have not found a (CoE Member) Country who could be insensitive in this sens", Halonen answered concerning grave Human Rights violations attested by the ECHR.

    - "I have no ready-made answer. I have the expectations that you, in the CoE, will, step by step, find the different types of the monitoring systems."

    Also "because this is a part of the UN's Post-Conflict system, (fex. when it comes to Cyprus' MISSING persons), and it's a more Global system". So that, "If we make a succes in Europe, the others will follow", throughout the World.  "But they expect that we (Europe) are this opportunity, this Opportunity to make a Succes", Halonen concluded.

    In addition, she advised to extend CoE's Monitoring to all its 47 Member States, "because, as long as we hear that, all these monitoring systems are "OK for the neighbor, but not for me", "it's very difficult" to understand. Something which could make easier to Compare...

    Finnish MEP Jaako Laakso, former CoE Rapporteur on the Occupied Territories of Cyprus and one of the 5 Signatories of the Historic CoE's call to create the "MONITORING" mecanism since 1996, was more specific :  - "We (CoE Assembly) have to find a way for the issue of Cyprus' MISSING People to be better followed", he stressed, anouncing his intention to "speak to Mr. Holovaty" about that. "There might be also other ways", added Laakso.

    - The 2008 "Year had been a very Bad one for Turkey with regard to Human Rights in general, and Freedom of Expression in particular", denounced, meanwhile, Holovaty's preliminary Post-Monitoringh Draft Report by Holovaty, published by the CoE on April 2009.

    "Amnesty International believes that freedom of expression is not guaranteed given the various articles of the Criminal Code that restrict it. .. "For example, 1,300 Websites are said to have been closed down by the (Turkish) authorities in 2008" ! While "the new Turkish Criminal Code was used to bring a total of 1,072 proceedings between June 2005 and April 2008, and led to the conviction of 192 people", for expressing views. "Representatives of the Özgür Gündem newspaper, which specialises in Kurdish affairs, ..complained about Numerous Attacks on their Freedom of Expression ...as was everyone who advocated a settlement to the question by means other than the intervention of the army" "According to their figures, 19 Newspapers had been suspended 43 times between 4 August 2006 and 4 November 2008" !...

    Moreover, on 2008,  CoE's "Ministers adopted its 4rth Resolution on the execution of the judgments of the ECHR, ...and outstanding issues regarding 175 Judgements and decisions relating to Turkey delivered between 1996 and 2008...  concerning Deaths resulting from the excessive use of force by members of the Security forces, the failure to protect the right to life, the DIisappearance and/or death of individuals, Ill-Treatment and the Destruction of property". CoE's " Ministers urged the Turkish authorities ...to ensure that members of Security forces of all ranks can be prosecuted without administrative
authorisation" for "serious crimes". Holovaty reminded.

"Nonetheless", Holovaty heard anew of "Several cases of Violence committed last year (2008) by the (Turkish) security forces". Amnesty International speaks of Many Cases of ill-treatment and Torture in the prisons and by the police". "Including, fex."'the death of Engin Ceber, a young man of 29 who died on October 2008 as a result of the TORTURE allegedly inflicted on him by police officers, prison staff and members of the gendarmerie. He was part of a group of people arrested on September 2008 during a demonstration and Press Conference in Istanbul'. Proceedings against suspects are "on-going" in this case.

- " I therefore noted an Obvious Contradiction between the Government’s stated “zero tolerance” policy.... of Torture and other forms of ill-treatment, and the different testimonies given", denounced CoE's Rapporteur.  Turkish "authorities must make considerable efforts to guarantee that proper investigations are carried out into allegations of abuses by members of the security forces and that perpetrators are effectively punished" "In this respect, I have requested detailed Statistics on the number of Investigations, acquittals and convictions in cases involving allegations of abuse in order to show the positive impact of the measures taken to date", Holovaty said, repeating a permanently unsatisfied CoE's demand to Turkey since a Decade...

    - "The Political Crisis that shook the country in the spring of 2008 highlighted the Weaknesses of the (Turkish) Constitution", which comes from the Military regime of 1982, "and the Urgent Need of Reforms", stressed from the outset CoE's Rapporteur in 2009. In particular, "the ...Democratic functioning of state institutions, including the independence of the judicial system, are crucial", he observes.

    But, "the Electoral  system and the ways in which it is circumvented do not appear to give those elected complete Legitimacy, and tend to pervert the course of direct universal suffrage", denounces Holovaty, observing that, even 5 Years later, Turkey did not yet change the 10% nationwide Threshold for a party to take any seat, which is "far higher" than the "3%" maximum in Europe and already condemned as contrary to European Standards by the CoE.

    + Moreover, EU Parliament's 2009 Report on Turkey, drafted by Dutch MEP Ria Oomen-Ruijten and adopted in Strasbourg on March, expresses "Concern over the Failure of the (Turkish) Judiciary to prosecute cases of Torture and Ill-treatment, the Number of which is Growing". EU also "is concerned about continuing Hostility and Violence against Minorities" in Turkey. It also "calls on the Turkish Government to launch, as a matter of Priority, a Political Initiatve favouring a lasting Settlement of the Kurdish issue, (while "condemning violence.. and terrorist groups"). EU "regrets that No progress has been made on establishing full, systematic Civilian suprevisory functions over the (Turkish) Military".

    The final results of Holovaty's 2nd and last visit to Turkley will be known later this year, and, at any case, before EU's December 2009 Summit.

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2009 EU Elections were won by Parties against Technocracy and Turkey's controversial EU bid, while the 1999-2004 Majority Abstention trend decelerated. What should be done in 2009-2014 ?

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