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Accueil arrow newsitems arrow UK Election + BREXIT Chemistry : Get Farage out, and all goes astray ! But Why Now ?

UK Election + BREXIT Chemistry : Get Farage out, and all goes astray ! But Why Now ?

Ecrit par ACM
Thursday, 08 June 2017
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*Strasbourg/Angelo Marcopolo/- 0ne Picture resumes Everything about these Surprising 2017 UK Elections. No Need to read Dozens of Pages, watch at so-called "Experts" in Boring Medias, follow a Long Series of Politicians' bla-bla, etc...Don't search for the Moon at Broad MidDay! Simply look at the Main Fact : What did the British People Vote for ?


One Number says it all :  - Without Farage, this time, the UKIP vanished, it dissolved in the air, and the Big Parties shared its Voters !


Back on 2015, Farage's UKIP had reached about 12 % of the Votes, but Now, on 2017, a "UKIP" withOut Farage, Fell Down to Only about 1,5%, i.e. Nothing...


Corbyn's Labour Party got almost 2/3 of it, and May's Conservatives 1/3, Augmenting Both their Votes now .


Why ? Simply because (as Farage reminds) Corbyn had suddenly made an U-Turn for BREXIT, against Mass Migration, etc., (i.e. practicaly Copied a part of Farage's main Issues), while May continued also on her Careful BREXIT path.


This stems also from the parallel Fact that, at the Same Time, 3 Pro-EU "Remain" and Anti-BREXIT small/medium Parties : the "Greens", Liberals-Dems, and the Scottish Autonomists, (who kept the Same Leaders as before, Contrary to the UKIP), All Faced voters' Losses : Even if the Lib-Dems limited their votes' Losses down to -0,5%, the Scots Lost almost -2%, the "Greens" Losing more : about - 2,5% less than before. I.e., Totaling another Loss of - 5% of Votes in 2017, compared to 2015.


(On the Contrary, the pro-BREXIT -even if "Soft"- DUP Conservative Party at Northern Ireland, won at least +0,3% more Votes : See also Infra).


=> All this Resulted into the UK Conservatives Winning almost + 6% More of Votes, Remaining the First Party of Great Britain, with about 42,5% of Voters, while the Labour (Socialists) won Even More: about + 10%, reaching almost 40% of Voters.

But, probably Because the Main Blame for the Latest 3 Islamist Terrorists' Deadly Attacks, cowardaly Targetting Civilian People, twice in London and once in Manchester, was First addressed against Prime Minister Theresa May's Governing Conservatives, (partly also by the Right Side in the Conservative Party), instead of realizing the Fact that All of these ISIS' Attacks occured in 2 Cities whose Mayors were Labour ("Socialists" : including even Controversial Heads of local Police : Comp.: ...+...), and in which a Growing Islamization had already provoked Exceptionaly Big Muslim Minorities in deepening Cultural "Ghettos", (f.ex. more than 14 % in London and + 16 % in Manchester), Paradoxically, Westminster got - 13 Less Conservative MPs tha before, and + 30 More Labour MPs than back on 2015. (Possibly also due to the Fact that Labour "Socialists" usual Clientelist policies, Focused on certain Local Areas, served to get More New MPs than Conservatives, whose Ideological/Political Influence was more Spread all over the Country, given UK's special "1st Taks All" electoral system).


However, since the Conservatives remain the Biggest Political Party of Great Britain, with 318 MPs, (compared to "only" 262 for Labour), neverheless, Theresa May hopes to Keep the Government going, thanks also to a Support from the DUP : the Democratic Unionist Party of Norhern Island, which Wins +2 MPs More in 2017, (passing from 8 to 10), so that, in Addition, eventualy, also of some "Other", Independent and/or Smaller Parties' MPs, (13 in all), May might Reach the Absolute Majority threshhold of 326 MPs, (i.e. just +10 more, than what she already has got).


And this, even if the Liberal-Dems, (who had already forged a Governing Coalition with the Conservatives, back on 2010), this Time said that they wouldn't like a coalition with Neither among the 2 Biggest Parties now.


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The Reason for which Farage's exceptional Absence from this UKIP Campaign 2017 was the Main Factor which provoked a 2nd Political "Earthquake" Now, after that of the 2016's "BREXIT" Referendum, (which had been also UnExpected by Polls), obviously is also that his usual Strong Ideological, Argumentary and Socio-Political Push lacked, this time, to an Alternative UKIP's InExperienced Leadership, which didn't manage, f.ex., to find anything more Interesting to say in 2017, as its Electoral Campaign Moto, than a mere ...Copy of French "Social-Liberal" Macron's own moto, i the 2nd Round of the Presidential Election : "For France, Together !", transposed as "For Britain, Together !"... Macron's truc, apparently, didn't work at all vis a vis the British People...

I.e., Nothing to do with the Famous, Nigel Farage's Headline Moto for UKIP's Biggest ever Win at the 2009 EU Parliament's Elections, which read : - "No to Turkey's Accession into the EU !", (when the British People boosted UKIP's MEPs from only 2 up to 19, allowing them to form, later-on, even a Brand New Political Group, etc).


Even Less with Farage's 2015 UKIP, which strongly Fought both against controversial and Unpopular "Gay Marriage", with Children submitted to Homosexuals' power under Pretext of so-called "Adoption", etc, (Same Positions with those Defended by DUP of Norhern Ireland until Today : Comp. Supra), and against Tony Blair's damned anti-Legacy, whose Heavy Responsibilities (including for Iraq's Foreign Military Invasion/Occupation since Back on 2003, etc), were at least partly Denounced by a Long Official UK Report at the Beginning of Summer 2016, (etc), as well as against the Risks provoked by that 2015-2016 sudden "Tsunami" of Mass Asylum Seekers/Irregular Migrants coming via Turkish' Smugglers inside Europe through EU and Shengen's Member Greece's Border laxist Leftist Government, followed by Stern Warnings also against Ankara Government's claim for more than 80 Millions of Turks to get a "VISA-FREE" status, allowing them to Enter and Stay inside the EU, whenever they like, during at least 6 Months each Year, (etc)...  


Lacking such Strong Political Arguments, as it was also reflected by its  ...Macron-inspired "Pass-Partout" vague Campaign Moto "for Britain, Together", (Comp. Supra), in Addition to Nigel Farage's personal Rhetoric capacities, (meanwhile focused much more on his New Job as ...Journalist at LBC Radio), following his Exceptional Decision to Resign from UKIP's Leadership just after BREXIT Referendum back on 2016, and Remain at EU Parliament, as President of the EFDD Group of MEPs even now on 2017, (etc), it was Inevitable for nowadays UKIP, (which wasn't, in fact, but only a Ghost of its Earlier shelf), to Fail to attract People, particularly since Both the 2 Biggest Parties of the Country started to claim that they pursued an Agenda Respectful of the 2016 Referendum's Agenda, (Comp. Supra).


A we have clearly Analysed previously (See, f.ex. : ....), "BREXIT"s Unexpected success on 2016, was, in reality, Due also to certain Issues which had Nothing to do with a so-called "Anti-European" stance, but rather with the Fact that People could No more Find Anyone from the Establishment to Defend them efficiently, and Even to some Issues which could, in fact, be considered to be, in Substance, rather the Opposite : i.e. Pro-European positions, that some mainstream Politicians had Betrayed, (f.ex. on European Culture, Population, Christian roots, Fight agains Islamist Terrorism, Peaceful relations with Russia, but also Syria, BioEthical Values, People's Access to Health Care, Protection of External Borders from Mass Immigration as that which was suddenly brought by Turkish Smugglers provoking a lot of Unprecedented Problems and Risks for EU Citizens and even for real refugees, etc).


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All these Facts and Events, Now, by Resulting, at least for the Time being, in a "Hang" Parliament, (i.e. without an a priori Explicit and Full Absolute Majority Government : the DUP supporting the Conservatives according to a Special Arrangement, withOut directly participating in Ministerial posts), inevitably Provoke, as far as the EU is concernced, in relation with the still Pending Issue of UK's "BREXIT", precisely that Problem which had been, already, Denounced as "No 1" Danger, as Early as since the 1st EU Summit in Brussels just after the BREXIT Referendum, back on June 2016, by the Experienced Secretary General of ChristianDemocrat/EPP Party, Spanish MEP Lopez Istures, speaking to "Eurofora" on the spot, (See : http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/eppsummitoutcomeafterbrexit.html ) : I.e., More "UnCertainties".


This was also Stressed, Now, by EU's High Representative for External Actions, former Foreign Minister of Italy, Federica Mogerini, who reportedly Denounced the Fact that, even 1 Year after the Referendum, we still doN't know the UK position on Brexit, and it seems Difficult to Predict When we will...


While Even BREXIT's spiritual "Father", former Long-Time UKIP's President, Nigel Farage, reportedly Criticized, (according to Mainstream "ITV" Media), that, just after this Latest UK Election, "quite Frankly, I doN't know what's going to happen here !", (sic).


=> In such a Context, it's understandable, but also quite Unconvincing, that BBC's Main News Story runs Now on British Prime Minister Theresa May's "promise to provide <<Certainty>>", as she reportedly found as more Important to say...

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+ Moreover, mainstream UK Media Started to speak about a so-called "Soft" PREXIT, as a Result of this Election.


And even Farage, reportedly Warned that "we're going to see a significant Backslide on BREXIT".

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Last, but not least, Many might, Legitimately, raise the Question : - "WHY all this, happens NOW ?"


To what, several other Experienced Observers, are enclined to Reply, in substance, by pointing, mainly, at German Chancellor Angie Merkel's widely commented (even at the US White House !) alleged Wording, (reportedly used shortly after the Latest NATO and G7 Summits), that "Europeans have now to take care by themselves, without waiting no more for others to do that for them"...


Something which, particularly if it's related also to Security - Defence Policies, notoriously meets the Diachronic positions of all those who have served as Presidents of France, regardless of political parties or individual persons.


And, when even the most Recent moves by EU Commission's President, experienced former Long-Time Prime Minister of Luxembourg and EuroGroup's Chairman, Jean-Claude Juncker, reportedly Head, precisely towards that same Direction of Boosting EU's own, Autonomous Security-Defense Policy, at the eve of the forthcoming, June 2017 EU Heads of State/Governments' Summit in Brussels, (i.e. something that Neither the UK's establishment itself, as well as some much Wider Global Circles, have NEVER accepted), then, at least a great part of what Surprizing and/or UnExpected things happened in this "Bumpy" UK General Election, may become much more Easy to Guess...

 

 + Particularly since, in Addition, (as "Eurofora" has some recent Factual reasons to suppose), it's not at all excluded that even Turkey might be, in Secret, (i.e. without admitting that yet in Public), currently Watching what could happen with UK's Brexit, in order to, eventualy, revendicate a Similar solution also for itself, in the foreseable Future...

 

 

(../..)


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(NDLR : Partly UPDATED)

+

("DraftNews", as already send to "Eurofora" Subsrcribers/Donords, earlier. A more accurate, full Final Version, might be Published asap).


***


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(Opinion)

Paris - Bruxelles - Strasbourg, 2 septembre 2008

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Le spectaculaire succès du Président français, Nicolas Sarkozy, (en tête de l'UE jusqu'a décembre), à obtenir de suite un cessez le feu inattendu entre la Russie et la Georgie, immédiatement après sa visite aux Présidents Medvedev et Saakashvili, au pire moment de tensions et heurts violents meurtieurs, qui avaient tué plusieurs innocents et provoqué le deplacement forcé de réfugiés par milliers, lui donne incontestablement une stature vraiment européenne :

A ses liens personnels bien connus avec l'Hongrie, la Grece, l'Italie ou l'Espagne, en sus de son amitié avec la chancelière allemande Merkel, son souhait d'essayer d'attirer l'Angleterre au jeu européen, etc, s'y ajoute, maintenant, une réussite, fragile certes, mais importante, au combat pour la Paix dans la "grande" Europe du général De Gaulle, "jusqu'a l'Oural", qui inclut naturellement la Géorgie, l'Arménie et d'autres pays, et ne peut exister qu'avec rapports de confiance et partenartiat stratégique avec la Russie.

Apres avoir réussi à debloquer la situation au Liban, (pays avec liens culturels historiques en Europe), lors du Sommet pour la Méditerranée à Paris, juillet dernier, (comme atteste maintenant le prémier accord d'echange d'Ambassadeurs avec la Syrie), Sarkozy activa maintenant une présidence française de l'EU bien entreprenante, à l'autre bout de l'Europe, à Moscou, où, contrairement à Napoléon, il a été reçu avec soulagement par le nouveau président russe, ami de l'experimenté Vladimir Poutine.

Cet homme politique rélativement nouveau au plan politique européen, avec une vision souvent critique ou même critiquée, à tort ou a raison, mais ambitieuse et concrete a la fois, qui aime s'adresser aux "Européens", comme il dit, n'est-il pas bien placé pour stimuler le fameux débat sur l' "Identité de l' Europe", qu'il a proposé au Parlement Européen récemment à Strasbourg, moins d'un an avant les Elections européennes de 2009 ?

En 2007, il a réussi à faire monter spectaculairement la participation citoyenne aux élections présidentielles en France, obtenant des récords historiques :

N'est-ce pas, justement ce que l' Europe a bésoin, apres 2 abstentions majoritaires sans précedent aux Elections de 1999 et 2004, et 3 "Non" aux réferenda pour ses institutions en 2005 et 2008, pendant une décennie trouble 1999-2008, (marquée surtout par la demande controversée de la Turquie d'entrer dans l'UE eclipsant les avancées de la Monnaie unique et de la liberté de circulation à l'espace Shengen, avec consequences mal-ressenties par la majorité des citoyens, bien au-délà des clivages du passé), qui a failli stopper l'integration européenne ?

Et cela, au moment même ou une globalisation galopante met l'Europe devant un choix crucial entre saut qualitatif en avant, apte à valoriser une occasion historique exceptionelle à se développer résolument, après les vaines destructions, querelles et tensions des guerres "chaudes" ou "froides" qui lui ont couté son rang dans le Monde, ou réculer définitivement en décadence...

Alors, que certains de nos amis à la Commission en Bruxelles, lui laissent au moins un peu d'espace de mouvement, et qu'ils l'aident à tenter d'insufler de l' oxygène frais et vivifiant aux rapports entre les citoyens et une Europe qui a manifestement bésoin et mérite de retrouver d'urgence un nouveau dynamisme populaire, avec un souci de réalisme mais aussi une vision passionante pour son avenir !

Après tout, les Etats Unis d' Amérique ne se sont pas faits à coups de bureaucratie, nécessaire et utile, mais manifestement insuffisante : Sans l'impulsion d'hommes politiques originaux, d'intellectuels vraiment engagés, et, surtout, sans l'enorme énergie émanant de la conscience d'enjeux à la fois pratiques et grandioses, bien resentis par des millions de citoyens, stimulant leur adhésion active comme pioniers d'un nouveau avenir commun à construire, ils seraient encore une ex-colonie périphérique, affaiblie par stériles divisions, passif et impuissant spectateur des convulsions tragiques d'un Monde à la dérive...

Que les vrais "européens" ré-lisent au moins les fameux discours historiques sur l' Europe d'un Sarkozy bien inspiré à Strasbourg, aussi bien avant qu'après avoir gagné les élections françaises, le 21 février et le 2 juillet 2007, après son 1er sommet des Bruxelles, qui a adopté le nouveau Traité de l'UE en conclusion de la presidence allémande : Bonnes lectures pour cet été 2008, afin de préparer l' avenir qui s'ouvrira (ou fermera) à partir des élections européennes de 2009.

Peut-etre revelera-t-il plus, en ce sens, lors de ses 2 discours-debats prochains avec les eurodeputés, prévus lors des sessions plenières du Parlement Européen a Strasbourg en octobre et décembre 2008... 

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Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner had already unveiled President Sarkozy's intentions, during a particularly "hot" Press Conference in Paris, where he faced some's insistance for "sanctions", with a call for "a common EU stance". In the meanwhile, he was consulting "all these days" most of his EU, Russia and Georgia counterparts, (as Sarkozy's Spokesman, P-J. Henin confirmed to "EuroFora"). This allowed him to obtained the desired result, as EU Chairman, at a short, exceptional EU Summit in Brussels, afterwards.

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But, Sarkozy's No 1 official, Presidential palace's Secretary General Claude Gueant, active at Elysee during the 2008 Ambassadors' Conference, (together with his Top Diplomat, the experienced David Levitte), is well known for having an overall view : A link with 2009 EU Elections at the horizon ?

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2009 EU Elections were won by Parties against Technocracy and Turkey's controversial EU bid, while the 1999-2004 Majority Abstention trend decelerated. What should be done in 2009-2014 ?

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