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Home arrow newsitems arrow Spanish Elections 2015: Prevent a N/S Division of Europe, by Boosting ChristianDemocrat/EPP Links+ ?

Spanish Elections 2015: Prevent a N/S Division of Europe, by Boosting ChristianDemocrat/EPP Links+ ?

Parašė ACM
Saturday, December 19, 2015
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*Strasbourg/Angelo Marcopolo/- Seen from the "Mittel-Europa" Strategic Viewpoint of Strasbourg, things are Crystal-Clear, as far as Sunday's Crucial Elections in Spain are concerned :


Either Spanish People will Boost the Governing Rajoy's Christian-Democrat/European People's Party ("PP"), giving him a Chance, in one way or another, to Complete what notoriosly looks as a Hard but Succesful Economic Reform and Revival Trend, since the Catastrophe provoked in the Past by a series of former Socialist Governments who had blatantly Failed.


Or, Otherwise, Europe really Risks to be sharply Divided between the North and the South, seriously threatening to Trigger, more sooner than later, even a Break up in Two Separate Parts, which might make EU implode.


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    Almost all relevant Facts, indeed, clearly indicate that a kind of Remake, mutatis-mutandis, almost of a Similar Scenario as that of the Historic American Clash between the Northern and Southern States of what initialy was, back on 1860, only a Loose ConFederation, before Becoming, after a Hard Fought War, a much more United Federal State, giving Birth to the Today's USA, could Not be really Excluded a priori, in Today's Europe, IF this Sunday's Spanish Elections of 2015 don't Succeed to Prevent a dangerous North-South Division of Europe, which appears, Otherwise Inevitable.


    Indeed, after the Previous Political Developments in France, with President Hollande, and Italy with Prime Minister Rentzi, followed by more Recent Political Changes, in the Same Direction, mutatis-mutandis, also in Greece with Tsipras, and Portugal with Costa, after Malte, etc, the only Big Southern EU Member State with a Government of the Right, obviously, remains Spain with Prime Minister Rajoy, while All Other Southern States are Now Governed by the Left side of the Political Spectrum.


    On the Contrary, since the 2010 U-turn at the UK with David Cameron,, confirmed even more clearly on the Spring of 2015, and the Series of Stronger and Stronger Electoral Wins in Germany by Chancellor Angie Merkel's CDU/CSU, in Poland Tusk's 2007-2011 Governments followed in 2015 an even Stronger Right by Jaroslaw Kaczynski and Beata Szydło, as well as the impressive Series of Electoral Wins by Hungary's Victor Orban, Denmark's Lars Rasmussen's New 2015 Government of a Union of the Right, as well as Finland's 2015  Prime Minister Sipila - Soini and Stubb's all Right Coalition's Win, Romania's December 2014 Elected President Johannis and recent Developments concerning the New Government set up in 2015, until Bulgary's Borisov, etc., the General Trend is obviously Heading Towards the Right side of the Political Spectrum, (and this is even Stronger if one examines also the 2014 Election in Norway, and the 2015 Votes in Switzerland, etc).


    Therefore, only a ChristianDemocrat/EPP-led Government in Spain now, which could be Able to Keep and Strengthen an Important Politicial Link between the North and the South of the EU, (the other such GeoPolitical Element being, naturaly, the Franco-German EU "Motor", partly Independent from the Political color of its Leaders, which is not, however, entirely irrelevant at all). On the Contrary, if it was the Left side of the Political Spectrum would take over in Spain, then, the Opposition between North and South obviously would become so Big, that it's Doubtful if the EU could still manage to Keep a Solid Unity with an overall Political Cohesion, given, particularly, the Huge Challenges lying ahead, which Require from Europe a Concentrated Will to Act Fast and Efficiently.


    Taking into account the Fact that most Polls indicate that Partido Popular's Rajoy would rather Win this 2015 Election anew, but, probably, with an Insufficient Result for Majority, then, it seems at first sight that all depends, practicaly, on one of the 2 "New" Spanish Parties : that of the "Citizens" (Center+), which could find a way to Cooperate with a ChristianDemocrat/EPP Government in Madrid, (given also of the Fact that they are Both Favorable to the Unity of Spain). But it's current leader has notoriously expressed several Doubts and Hesitations agaist such a Center-Right Agreement, and the outcome appears Unpredictable.


    In  case that such an otherwise Normal Possibility (which would also be Closer from others to the Spanish People's overall Political Will, if the Votes go as expected), it doesn't work, at least for now, then, it seems that the only Alternative would be for the Spanish Voters to Awake Up, become fully Conscious of what is Really at Stake for the Future of Both the Country and Europe as a whole,  a Strong enough ChristianDemocrat/EPP backbone link throughout EU's North and South, (given also that Neighbouring France will notoriously hold its own, crucial Presidential and Parliamentarian Elections in almost 1 Year's Time : End of April - Beginning of May 2017). Otherwise, a more Remote and Less Probable, but Not Excluded a priori Scenario might be to Face, precisely, the "Instability" that Many Predict from these 2015 Elections in Spain, in order to Trigger, better Sooner than Later, a Brand New Electoral Bid, with much More Crystal-Clear Stakes for the People, Better and more Constructive Reflections for all involved.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              
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A "Gro-Ko" Cohabitation with Socialists is Not a Solution, but anOther Problem..
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    At any case, one thing appears Certain, already from Now : A Superficial Attempt to "Copy and Paste" or (even Worse) Impose a kind of "GroKo" Big Coalition with a Co-Habitation of the Left and the Right Sides of the Political Spectrum, by Taking Together Socialists and ChristianDemocrats/EPP traditional Parties, does NOT look good at all, because it would Provoke More Problems and Risks, (Perhaps even More Dangerous than the above-mentioned), than Solutions...


    Indeed, the main "New" aspect of these 2015 Spanish Elections being Expected to Focus rather on a Sharp Fall of the Socialists and an even Sharper Growth of 2 New, Atypical Parties, those of "Podemos", (recently Negatively Affected by Tsipras' Zig-Zags in Greece), and, even more, of "Citizens", (a Brand New rather Centrist, or Neo-Liberal Party), then, a "Duo" of the Traditional Socialist and EPP Parties would obviously look, inevitably, as if it was just a Coalition of the Past, against all those who might represent an Alternative Future, (various Corruption Scandals less).


    Moreover, even in France's recent History, a so Experienced Top Politician as former Long-Time President Jacques Chirac had notoriously Sacrificed 2 Years of Presidential Power (between 2007-2009), just to Shorten from 7 down to 5 Years his Term of office, so that the Presidential and Legislative Elections can Coincide in Dates, in order to have a Real Chance for the People to Exclude any kind of Political "Co-Habitation" between Left and Right, if one won the 1st, and another the 2nd, later-on, as it had already been done, provoking a Stagnation, Counter-Productive Tensions, Contradictions of Policy, etc, against a Healthy Democratic Alternance, only able to Give a Real Choice to the People, (and to incite the various Parties to prepare welln, strive to Find and Give the Best of themselves into such a Challenge).


    Today, given also the overall Recent Developments throughout almost all Europe, it seems quite Obvious that a "GroKo" recipe might, in Addition, prove quite Dangerous :

Indeed, already Exist and Extend Various and Numerous Concrete Examples, in Many European and Other Countries, of the Fact that People are now obviously Fed-up by such Deals among Traditional Politicians, which don't leave but Only a Few, if not None, real Chance for Citizens to have a Real Say on their Country's Political Life, augmentoing Frustrations and Popular Reactions which have already Proven that they Lead Voters, more and more, Towards Extreme or Atypical, Brand New Parties, with Unpredictable Final Results : F.ex., mutatis-mutandis : Beppe Grillo's "5 Stars Movement" in Italy, Nigel Farage's UKIP in Great Britain, the "National Front" in France, Tsipras' own "SYRIZA" post-Leftist Party and controversial "Golden Dawn"s Rightists in Greece, "Podemos" and "Citizens" in Spain (Comp. Supra), "Real Fins" Rightists in Finland, the "Alternative" in Germany, Danish and/or Norwegian Rightists, etc,

And the List is Not Finished yet in that Fast-Moving area of a Large Popular Dissatisfaction vis a vis most Traditional Political Parties, in front of several Big and New Challenges, and a Natural Seek for something more Trustworthy, Accountable and Better, most Often spontaneously Directed Out of the Old Establishment, as even the American Example currently shows in the USA, where such Various Anti-Establishment Movements are Growing already as early as Since 2008-2015...


+ Moreover, most Socialists' recent Tactics to Avoid Serious Debates on the Substance of Main Issues, but Prefer, on the Contrary, to launch Systematic Personal Attacks, Harassing their Political Adversaries with Any Kind of Misleading, Exagerated, Obscure, or even Totaly Slanderous Accusation against Themselves and/or some among their Closer Collaborators, even on Pretexts which Date from a Remote Past, (f.ex. Before they take Office, and/or Before entire Decades !), Several Times even Followed by Dangerous Physical Aggressions and Violence, (as f.ex. against former Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi, who was Hit at the Face unti Wounds Covered his Eyes with Blood ; Even Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy himself, who has just been, notoriously, Punched Violently at the Face, Breaking his Glasses and Wounding him, by a Gorilla-like looking Youngster aged 17+, shortly After a TV Debate during which the Chief of the Socialist Party, Santchez, reportedly Attacked Rajoy with a lot of various Personal Accusations, etc.

Indeed, such Methods of Systematic Personal Attacks, including with various Accusations, even outright Slandering, Repeatedly, Again and Again, Often simply Changing or Adding also Other Accusations, whenever the Previous ones might have been Proven False, Constantly Bullying their Victims in a kind of "Personailty Murder", which, in several cases, Includes also various "Judges" and/or "Prosecutors" often Appointed and/or Monitored by Socialist Governments, (etc), has Recently been Notoriously Exploited by extremely Abusive and Hateful Campaigns launched by Socialist Politicians in Many European Countries, such as, f.ex., in addition to Spain, also in France, Italy, Croatia, Slovenia, etc.


Facts which, obviously, are not only Outrageously Scandalous and Dangerously AntiDemocratic, but also Incompatible with Any Sincere and Trustworthy Cooperation between Politicaly Opposed Parties, that they make it an Impossible or Suicide-like Chimera and a Sly Trap where only Blind and Deaf might commit the Error to Naively Fall..


    In Consequence, a "GroKo" Attempt Risks to only Add to a GeoPolitical Danger, also a Systemic Danger, and/or a Sly Trap, that Both Spain and All Europe do NOT really Need Today !


    => On the Contrary, what is obviously Needed, is simply to Find New, Imaginative, but Resilient, Stable and Efficient Ways for a ReVitalized Democracy to realy Work, inter alia also by Giving EU Citizens a Say before Important Decisions affecting their Lives and/or that of the Whole Society at large, are taken, as well as, afterwards, a workable Accountability for Politicians who have undertaken a Responsibility for certain Big Choices. However, at any case, here and now, the most Important Priority is to Keep Europe basicaly United, around certain Fundamental Principles and Values, but, above all,  also thanks to a Real European Conscience in frequent interaction with the People.


(../..)
 

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("DraftNews", as already send to "EuroFora"s Subscribers/Donors, earlier. A more accurate, full Final Version might be Published asap).


***
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Swedish Foreign Minister, Carl Bildt, speaking  to "EuroFora", denied rumors on Turkey's attempts to avoid an EU check of its obligations on Cyprus on December 2009 by blackmailing Nicosia to either accept any deal with intransigeant Turkish claims contrary to EU values on the island's political issue, or face threats against the territorial integriy of the EU island, semi-occupied by Ankara's army.

On the contrary, the incoming EU President-in-office, speaking exclusively to "EuroFora", promissed that he will act for EU Council's decisions on December 2009 assessment of Turkey's commitments on Cyprus to be kept.


    Bildt was asked to react to Cyprus' President Christofias' denunciation, earlier this week, that some want to exert "pressure" on Cyprus in order for Turkey to escape from its obligations.

    Avoiding to mention any precise Deadline, Bildt, however, warned about "Consequences" in case of "failure" to reunite Cyprus, but without saying whose responsibility an eventual deadlock might be.  

 Asked by "EuroFora" if there is a risk for "Turkey's commitments to "be forgotten or downgraded", "despite crystal-clear EU Council decisions and EU Parliament's latest Resolution on the assessment to make at the end of this year on Turkey's obligations", according to rumours that, instead of pressing Turkey, on the contrary, there might be "pressure on Cyprus", even "blackmail", as Media reported and President Christofias denounced this week, Bildt denied :

- "No ! ", he clearly replied.


- On the contrary, invited by "EuroFora", to "reassure that the Swedish EU Presidency (7-12/2009) will keep a fair stance, based on principles",  Bildt promised that "we (Swedish EU Presidency) will be very clear on all of the decisions taken by the (EU) Council".

He added, however, that "we have very numerous decisions that have been taken" by EU Council, as if he warned, also, on something else.

- "'I am not aware of any sort of statements coming out today''", Bildt started to say, on our reference to Cyprus' President Christofias" denunciation of Turkish lobby's manoeuvers this week, replying earlier to 'another"EuroFora"'s question during a Press Conference at EU Parliament in Strasbourg.


 - '"I know the issues that you' are concerned with'", he added, remembering  the statements he gave us when Sweden was chairing the PanEuropean CoE on 2008.

- "But, obviously, .. I think that Cyprus' Peace negotiations are extremenly important".

- And "'I think that we are at a unique moment in History, in the sens that both (Cyprus') President Christofias and Mr. Talat (the Turkish Cypriot leader), are personally convinced of the need to overcome the division".

 - "It's 20 Years since the fall of Berlin Wal, but we still have a Capital in Europe (Nicosia) that's divided". ,

- 'I don't that we should loose any time in overcoming that"..

 - ''We should be aware of the fact that success will bring great benefits, but failure, will also have major consequences. There will not be Status Quo' " It's a question of seeking a solution, or entering another situation, which is somewhat difficult to see exactly how that could evolve", he warned.

- "That being said, this is a negotiation for Cyprus itself", Bildt admitted.

 - ''We (EU) can support, the (EU) Commission primarily, be technically helpful, and then, of course, there is a specific role for the UN, when it comes to the Cyprus' situation".  

- "At least so far. It might not be for ever'. Certainly not for ever, but for this period of time", Bildt added, skiping now any reference to concrete threats on UNO's Peace keeping force in face of more than 40.000 Ankara's soldiers, contrary to some Press claims, (See previous NewsReports).


     Replying to another "EuroFora"'s Question,  if anyone might attempt to "impose a Deadline for the conclusion" of Cyprus' Talks on December 2009, Bildt avoided to speak of any precise Time-frame, and indirectly evoked the fact that  35 Years of Turkish Invasion/Occupation obviously durated too long :

'- "If I was from Cyprus, I would say that the Deadline was Yesterday ! '",
Bildt concluded.

Cyprus' Government Spokesman, Stephanou, reportedly pointed out that "a settlement is possible on December if Turkey changes its stance", accepting a solution for the reunification of the island based on UNO resolutiona and EU principles.

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Earlier, EU Chair, Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeld, highlighted an "historic opportunity" to "re-Unite" Cyprus according to EU's "basic Values"' (i.e. Human Rights) and 'Rules'", in a last-minute change of his draft speech to EU Parliament in Strasbourg.

    The initial Draft spoke only about "healing" the island.

    Significantly, Reinfeldt linked Cyprus' reunification with Turkey's obligations to respect EU's "Values" and "follow" EU's "common Rules" :

    - What is "called Membership Negotiations" should lead, "at- the end of the day", into "sharing a set of common Basic Values (i.e. Human Rights, Democracy, etc), and following common Rules", stressed Reinfeld from the outset.
    
    - "This is something that those on the Outside (of the EU), are now  contemplating", up "to Ankara", for "a solution" on "Cyprus", observed the EU Chairman, immediately afterwards..  

    - "Both sides of Cyprus have been granted a historic opportunity to together reach an agreement on a solution to re-Unite the island, that has been divided for far too long", said Reinfeldt, modifying his draft text.


-  "The Swedish Presidency will act ...in accordance with Commitments EU has made, on the basis of Criteria that apply", "as a Honest Broker", he promised.    

- "To those on the inside (of the EU), allowing the membership process to become an opportunity to solve protracted disputes, can be tempting", he added.


    "In such cases, we must find solutions that can benefit both sides, and open up a way forward. Otherwise, it would jeopardize the progress we have made towards EU integration", Reinfeldt said.

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