Spanish Elections 2015: Prevent a N/S Division of Europe, by Boosting ChristianDemocrat/EPP Links+ ?
*Strasbourg/Angelo Marcopolo/- Seen from the "Mittel-Europa" Strategic Viewpoint of Strasbourg, things are Crystal-Clear, as far as Sunday's Crucial Elections in Spain are concerned :
Either Spanish People will Boost the Governing Rajoy's Christian-Democrat/European People's Party ("PP"), giving him a Chance, in one way or another, to Complete what notoriosly looks as a Hard but Succesful Economic Reform and Revival Trend, since the Catastrophe provoked in the Past by a series of former Socialist Governments who had blatantly Failed.
Or, Otherwise, Europe really Risks to be sharply Divided between the North and the South, seriously threatening to Trigger, more sooner than later, even a Break up in Two Separate Parts, which might make EU implode.
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Almost all relevant Facts, indeed, clearly indicate that a kind of Remake, mutatis-mutandis, almost of a Similar Scenario as that of the Historic American Clash between the Northern and Southern States of what initialy was, back on 1860, only a Loose ConFederation, before Becoming, after a Hard Fought War, a much more United Federal State, giving Birth to the Today's USA, could Not be really Excluded a priori, in Today's Europe, IF this Sunday's Spanish Elections of 2015 don't Succeed to Prevent a dangerous North-South Division of Europe, which appears, Otherwise Inevitable.
Indeed, after the Previous Political Developments in France, with President Hollande, and Italy with Prime Minister Rentzi, followed by more Recent Political Changes, in the Same Direction, mutatis-mutandis, also in Greece with Tsipras, and Portugal with Costa, after Malte, etc, the only Big Southern EU Member State with a Government of the Right, obviously, remains Spain with Prime Minister Rajoy, while All Other Southern States are Now Governed by the Left side of the Political Spectrum.
On the Contrary, since the 2010 U-turn at the UK with David Cameron,, confirmed even more clearly on the Spring of 2015, and the Series of Stronger and Stronger Electoral Wins in Germany by Chancellor Angie Merkel's CDU/CSU, in Poland Tusk's 2007-2011 Governments followed in 2015 an even Stronger Right by Jaroslaw Kaczynski and Beata Szydło, as well as the impressive Series of Electoral Wins by Hungary's Victor Orban, Denmark's Lars Rasmussen's New 2015 Government of a Union of the Right, as well as Finland's 2015 Prime Minister Sipila - Soini and Stubb's all Right Coalition's Win, Romania's December 2014 Elected President Johannis and recent Developments concerning the New Government set up in 2015, until Bulgary's Borisov, etc., the General Trend is obviously Heading Towards the Right side of the Political Spectrum, (and this is even Stronger if one examines also the 2014 Election in Norway, and the 2015 Votes in Switzerland, etc).
Therefore, only a ChristianDemocrat/EPP-led Government in Spain now, which could be Able to Keep and Strengthen an Important Politicial Link between the North and the South of the EU, (the other such GeoPolitical Element being, naturaly, the Franco-German EU "Motor", partly Independent from the Political color of its Leaders, which is not, however, entirely irrelevant at all). On the Contrary, if it was the Left side of the Political Spectrum would take over in Spain, then, the Opposition between North and South obviously would become so Big, that it's Doubtful if the EU could still manage to Keep a Solid Unity with an overall Political Cohesion, given, particularly, the Huge Challenges lying ahead, which Require from Europe a Concentrated Will to Act Fast and Efficiently.
Taking into account the Fact that most Polls indicate that Partido Popular's Rajoy would rather Win this 2015 Election anew, but, probably, with an Insufficient Result for Majority, then, it seems at first sight that all depends, practicaly, on one of the 2 "New" Spanish Parties : that of the "Citizens" (Center+), which could find a way to Cooperate with a ChristianDemocrat/EPP Government in Madrid, (given also of the Fact that they are Both Favorable to the Unity of Spain). But it's current leader has notoriously expressed several Doubts and Hesitations agaist such a Center-Right Agreement, and the outcome appears Unpredictable.
In case that such an otherwise Normal Possibility (which would also be Closer from others to the Spanish People's overall Political Will, if the Votes go as expected), it doesn't work, at least for now, then, it seems that the only Alternative would be for the Spanish Voters to Awake Up, become fully Conscious of what is Really at Stake for the Future of Both the Country and Europe as a whole, a Strong enough ChristianDemocrat/EPP backbone link throughout EU's North and South, (given also that Neighbouring France will notoriously hold its own, crucial Presidential and Parliamentarian Elections in almost 1 Year's Time : End of April - Beginning of May 2017). Otherwise, a more Remote and Less Probable, but Not Excluded a priori Scenario might be to Face, precisely, the "Instability" that Many Predict from these 2015 Elections in Spain, in order to Trigger, better Sooner than Later, a Brand New Electoral Bid, with much More Crystal-Clear Stakes for the People, Better and more Constructive Reflections for all involved.
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A "Gro-Ko" Cohabitation with Socialists is Not a Solution, but anOther Problem..
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At any case, one thing appears Certain, already from Now : A Superficial Attempt to "Copy and Paste" or (even Worse) Impose a kind of "GroKo" Big Coalition with a Co-Habitation of the Left and the Right Sides of the Political Spectrum, by Taking Together Socialists and ChristianDemocrats/EPP traditional Parties, does NOT look good at all, because it would Provoke More Problems and Risks, (Perhaps even More Dangerous than the above-mentioned), than Solutions...
Indeed, the main "New" aspect of these 2015 Spanish Elections being Expected to Focus rather on a Sharp Fall of the Socialists and an even Sharper Growth of 2 New, Atypical Parties, those of "Podemos", (recently Negatively Affected by Tsipras' Zig-Zags in Greece), and, even more, of "Citizens", (a Brand New rather Centrist, or Neo-Liberal Party), then, a "Duo" of the Traditional Socialist and EPP Parties would obviously look, inevitably, as if it was just a Coalition of the Past, against all those who might represent an Alternative Future, (various Corruption Scandals less).
Moreover, even in France's recent History, a so Experienced Top Politician as former Long-Time President Jacques Chirac had notoriously Sacrificed 2 Years of Presidential Power (between 2007-2009), just to Shorten from 7 down to 5 Years his Term of office, so that the Presidential and Legislative Elections can Coincide in Dates, in order to have a Real Chance for the People to Exclude any kind of Political "Co-Habitation" between Left and Right, if one won the 1st, and another the 2nd, later-on, as it had already been done, provoking a Stagnation, Counter-Productive Tensions, Contradictions of Policy, etc, against a Healthy Democratic Alternance, only able to Give a Real Choice to the People, (and to incite the various Parties to prepare welln, strive to Find and Give the Best of themselves into such a Challenge).
Today, given also the overall Recent Developments throughout almost all Europe, it seems quite Obvious that a "GroKo" recipe might, in Addition, prove quite Dangerous :
Indeed, already Exist and Extend Various and Numerous Concrete Examples, in Many European and Other Countries, of the Fact that People are now obviously Fed-up by such Deals among Traditional Politicians, which don't leave but Only a Few, if not None, real Chance for Citizens to have a Real Say on their Country's Political Life, augmentoing Frustrations and Popular Reactions which have already Proven that they Lead Voters, more and more, Towards Extreme or Atypical, Brand New Parties, with Unpredictable Final Results : F.ex., mutatis-mutandis : Beppe Grillo's "5 Stars Movement" in Italy, Nigel Farage's UKIP in Great Britain, the "National Front" in France, Tsipras' own "SYRIZA" post-Leftist Party and controversial "Golden Dawn"s Rightists in Greece, "Podemos" and "Citizens" in Spain (Comp. Supra), "Real Fins" Rightists in Finland, the "Alternative" in Germany, Danish and/or Norwegian Rightists, etc,
And the List is Not Finished yet in that Fast-Moving area of a Large Popular Dissatisfaction vis a vis most Traditional Political Parties, in front of several Big and New Challenges, and a Natural Seek for something more Trustworthy, Accountable and Better, most Often spontaneously Directed Out of the Old Establishment, as even the American Example currently shows in the USA, where such Various Anti-Establishment Movements are Growing already as early as Since 2008-2015...
+ Moreover, most Socialists' recent Tactics to Avoid Serious Debates on the Substance of Main Issues, but Prefer, on the Contrary, to launch Systematic Personal Attacks, Harassing their Political Adversaries with Any Kind of Misleading, Exagerated, Obscure, or even Totaly Slanderous Accusation against Themselves and/or some among their Closer Collaborators, even on Pretexts which Date from a Remote Past, (f.ex. Before they take Office, and/or Before entire Decades !), Several Times even Followed by Dangerous Physical Aggressions and Violence, (as f.ex. against former Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi, who was Hit at the Face unti Wounds Covered his Eyes with Blood ; Even Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy himself, who has just been, notoriously, Punched Violently at the Face, Breaking his Glasses and Wounding him, by a Gorilla-like looking Youngster aged 17+, shortly After a TV Debate during which the Chief of the Socialist Party, Santchez, reportedly Attacked Rajoy with a lot of various Personal Accusations, etc.
Indeed, such Methods of Systematic Personal Attacks, including with various Accusations, even outright Slandering, Repeatedly, Again and Again, Often simply Changing or Adding also Other Accusations, whenever the Previous ones might have been Proven False, Constantly Bullying their Victims in a kind of "Personailty Murder", which, in several cases, Includes also various "Judges" and/or "Prosecutors" often Appointed and/or Monitored by Socialist Governments, (etc), has Recently been Notoriously Exploited by extremely Abusive and Hateful Campaigns launched by Socialist Politicians in Many European Countries, such as, f.ex., in addition to Spain, also in France, Italy, Croatia, Slovenia, etc.
Facts which, obviously, are not only Outrageously Scandalous and Dangerously AntiDemocratic, but also Incompatible with Any Sincere and Trustworthy Cooperation between Politicaly Opposed Parties, that they make it an Impossible or Suicide-like Chimera and a Sly Trap where only Blind and Deaf might commit the Error to Naively Fall..
In Consequence, a "GroKo" Attempt Risks to only Add to a GeoPolitical Danger, also a Systemic Danger, and/or a Sly Trap, that Both Spain and All Europe do NOT really Need Today !
=> On the Contrary, what is obviously Needed, is simply to Find New, Imaginative, but Resilient, Stable and Efficient Ways for a ReVitalized Democracy to realy Work, inter alia also by Giving EU Citizens a Say before Important Decisions affecting their Lives and/or that of the Whole Society at large, are taken, as well as, afterwards, a workable Accountability for Politicians who have undertaken a Responsibility for certain Big Choices. However, at any case, here and now, the most Important Priority is to Keep Europe basicaly United, around certain Fundamental Principles and Values, but, above all, also thanks to a Real European Conscience in frequent interaction with the People.
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People in Europe and the World expect from CoE to make a succes of its "Monitoring" for Human Rights and Democracy, despite difficulties, said Finland's President Tarja Halonen to "EuroFora" at a crucial moment for the mecanism built 15 years ago by the paneuropean organization which celebrates its 60th Anniversary in 2009.
Halonen, known as "Mother" of CoE's "Monitoring" mecanism, a long-time MEP and former Foreign Minister before becoming Finland's President, holds a long experience in the mattter, after also serving twice as CoE and EU Chairwoman in the past. That's why she is well placed to judge how CoE's "monitoring" should deal today with some crucial issues of importance both to CoE and to the EU.
The move came just a Month before a crucial, last visit to Turkey, scheduled for June, by the President of CoE''s "Monitoring" Committee, Ukranian MEP Serge Holovaty, to finalize his Report on Ankara, the CoE Member State with the longest Monitoring procedure. From its results depends its overall credibility.
This is a Test-case, because, in fact, it's in order to avoid Sanctions threatened against Turkey by a CoE's Assembly's April 1995 Resolution for grave Human Rights violations, Democracy gaps, the continuing Military Occupation in Cyprus, the unresolved Kurdish problem, Aegean differend with Greece, etc., that MEPs decided to create, for the 1st time on April 1996, a "Monitoring" proces, allegedly destinated to check, without excluding Countries who did not fulfill all CoE's standards.
In the Past, the obliged withdrawal of Greece's Military regime and of its "Civil" cover-up out of the CoE had helped bring back Democracy in 1974. But, on the contrary, since April 1996, the idea was to "monitor" Human Rights' respect while keeping most concerned Countries inside the CoE. After Turkey's oldest example, this was extended also to several former "Eastern" European Countries, even if CoE's Assembly has imposed to some of them (fex. Ukraine, Russia, etc., after Belarus, Serbia, etc) various "Sanctions", that Ankara always avoided. Curiously more succesful even than .. USA itself, (a CoE "Observer" since 1995), which has been at least threatened with sanctions some years ago..
EU-effects of CoE's Monitoring process became obvious between 2001-2008, since the "closure" of this procedure, when CoE felt that a Country had met most of its Human Rights, Democracy and Rule of Law obligations, (i.e. the "Copenhagen Criteria" for the EU), helped trigger Negotiations with the EU for "Accession" or other closer relations : This occured already before the 2004 and 2007 EU Enlargements to former "Eastern" European Countries, as well as for the commencement of "accession" negotiations with Croatia, and of "open-ended" negotiations with Turkey in 2005.
But a stricking new development are Holovaty's recent findings that on core Human Rights issues as Torture and Freedom of Expression, Turkey, even "5 Years after" CoE closed its "Monitoring", back in 2004, inciting EU to start accession Negotiations in 2005, still presents grave problems.
His findings are of crucial importance after a 2008 CoE Resolution called, "if need be", to "seriously consider the possibility of Re-Opening the Monitoring procedure for Turkey" : A move which might affect Ankara's controversial EU bid, since EU Accession Negotiations are based on the Hypothesis that the Candidate fullfils the "Copenhagen Criteria" (See above)..
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Holovaty expressed his will to check "Matters still Outstanding" and those that he "didn't have an opportunity to discuss" at an earlier visit this year, "in order to discuss the more complex issues in greater depth", at his forthcoming New Visit to Ankara, before the December 2009 EU Summit. This is all based on the 2004 CoE Resolution which stresses that, CoE "will continue.. post-monitoring Dialogue with the Turkish authorities,...in addition to a 12-points list,..and on any Other Matter that might arise in connection with Turkey’s Obligations as a CoE member state".
CoE's Resolution also asks from Turkey "to secure the proper Implementation of Judgements, particularly in the Cyprus v. Turkey InterState case", of 2001, which concerns also the plight of many Hundreds of MISSING People. It adds Turkey's obligations to "execute" ECHR's Judgements in the Loizidou case,..and in particular adopt General Measures to avoid repetition or continuation of Violations found by the Court" to the detriment of Refugees.
Nevertheless, Holovaty said to "EuroFora" that "MISSING" persons,"might be included" and cannot be excluded, but he has yet to examine the situation "to find out which issues will be raised" to the Turkish Government.
Therefore, "EuroFora" asked Halonen, as the Historic "Mother" of CoE's Monitoring mecanism, if she thought that, "whenever there are grave Human Rights Violations, as fex. "MISSING" persons, attested even by ECHR's judgements, they should be always checked by a Monitoring process. Or could they be forgotten ?"
- "We (CoE) must be, at the same time, Fair, Realistic, but not in the mind that "now we have Forgotten", etc., replied to "EuroFora"'s question Halonen, speaking as a matter of general principle.
- "When we think of those People that are suffering from the lack of Democracy, of Human Rights, and of the Rule of Law", "we should find a base on how to deal with the (Monitoring) system more rapidly"', she stressed.
- "Sometimes it's very difficult to combine Transparency and Effectivenes together, particularly in this specific case", she went on to say. But, "I have not found a (CoE Member) Country who could be insensitive in this sens", Halonen answered concerning grave Human Rights violations attested by the ECHR.
- "I have no ready-made answer. I have the expectations that you, in the CoE, will, step by step, find the different types of the monitoring systems."
Also "because this is a part of the UN's Post-Conflict system, (fex. when it comes to Cyprus' MISSING persons), and it's a more Global system". So that, "If we make a succes in Europe, the others will follow", throughout the World. "But they expect that we (Europe) are this opportunity, this Opportunity to make a Succes", Halonen concluded.
In addition, she advised to extend CoE's Monitoring to all its 47 Member States, "because, as long as we hear that, all these monitoring systems are "OK for the neighbor, but not for me", "it's very difficult" to understand. Something which could make easier to Compare...
Finnish MEP Jaako Laakso, former CoE Rapporteur on the Occupied Territories of Cyprus and one of the 5 Signatories of the Historic CoE's call to create the "MONITORING" mecanism since 1996, was more specific : - "We (CoE Assembly) have to find a way for the issue of Cyprus' MISSING People to be better followed", he stressed, anouncing his intention to "speak to Mr. Holovaty" about that. "There might be also other ways", added Laakso.
- The 2008 "Year had been a very Bad one for Turkey with regard to Human Rights in general, and Freedom of Expression in particular", denounced, meanwhile, Holovaty's preliminary Post-Monitoringh Draft Report by Holovaty, published by the CoE on April 2009.
"Amnesty International believes that freedom of expression is not guaranteed given the various articles of the Criminal Code that restrict it. .. "For example, 1,300 Websites are said to have been closed down by the (Turkish) authorities in 2008" ! While "the new Turkish Criminal Code was used to bring a total of 1,072 proceedings between June 2005 and April 2008, and led to the conviction of 192 people", for expressing views. "Representatives of the Özgür Gündem newspaper, which specialises in Kurdish affairs, ..complained about Numerous Attacks on their Freedom of Expression ...as was everyone who advocated a settlement to the question by means other than the intervention of the army" "According to their figures, 19 Newspapers had been suspended 43 times between 4 August 2006 and 4 November 2008" !...
Moreover, on 2008, CoE's "Ministers adopted its 4rth Resolution on the execution of the judgments of the ECHR, ...and outstanding issues regarding 175 Judgements and decisions relating to Turkey delivered between 1996 and 2008... concerning Deaths resulting from the excessive use of force by members of the Security forces, the failure to protect the right to life, the DIisappearance and/or death of individuals, Ill-Treatment and the Destruction of property". CoE's " Ministers urged the Turkish authorities ...to ensure that members of Security forces of all ranks can be prosecuted without administrative
authorisation" for "serious crimes". Holovaty reminded.
"Nonetheless", Holovaty heard anew of "Several cases of Violence committed last year (2008) by the (Turkish) security forces". Amnesty International speaks of Many Cases of ill-treatment and Torture in the prisons and by the police". "Including, fex."'the death of Engin Ceber, a young man of 29 who died on October 2008 as a result of the TORTURE allegedly inflicted on him by police officers, prison staff and members of the gendarmerie. He was part of a group of people arrested on September 2008 during a demonstration and Press Conference in Istanbul'. Proceedings against suspects are "on-going" in this case.
- " I therefore noted an Obvious Contradiction between the Government’s stated “zero tolerance” policy.... of Torture and other forms of ill-treatment, and the different testimonies given", denounced CoE's Rapporteur. Turkish "authorities must make considerable efforts to guarantee that proper investigations are carried out into allegations of abuses by members of the security forces and that perpetrators are effectively punished" "In this respect, I have requested detailed Statistics on the number of Investigations, acquittals and convictions in cases involving allegations of abuse in order to show the positive impact of the measures taken to date", Holovaty said, repeating a permanently unsatisfied CoE's demand to Turkey since a Decade...
- "The Political Crisis that shook the country in the spring of 2008 highlighted the Weaknesses of the (Turkish) Constitution", which comes from the Military regime of 1982, "and the Urgent Need of Reforms", stressed from the outset CoE's Rapporteur in 2009. In particular, "the ...Democratic functioning of state institutions, including the independence of the judicial system, are crucial", he observes.
But, "the Electoral system and the ways in which it is circumvented do not appear to give those elected complete Legitimacy, and tend to pervert the course of direct universal suffrage", denounces Holovaty, observing that, even 5 Years later, Turkey did not yet change the 10% nationwide Threshold for a party to take any seat, which is "far higher" than the "3%" maximum in Europe and already condemned as contrary to European Standards by the CoE.
+ Moreover, EU Parliament's 2009 Report on Turkey, drafted by Dutch MEP Ria Oomen-Ruijten and adopted in Strasbourg on March, expresses "Concern over the Failure of the (Turkish) Judiciary to prosecute cases of Torture and Ill-treatment, the Number of which is Growing". EU also "is concerned about continuing Hostility and Violence against Minorities" in Turkey. It also "calls on the Turkish Government to launch, as a matter of Priority, a Political Initiatve favouring a lasting Settlement of the Kurdish issue, (while "condemning violence.. and terrorist groups"). EU "regrets that No progress has been made on establishing full, systematic Civilian suprevisory functions over the (Turkish) Military".
The final results of Holovaty's 2nd and last visit to Turkley will be known later this year, and, at any case, before EU's December 2009 Summit.
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