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Home arrow newsitems arrow Spanish Elections 2015: Prevent a N/S Division of Europe, by Boosting ChristianDemocrat/EPP Links+ ?

Spanish Elections 2015: Prevent a N/S Division of Europe, by Boosting ChristianDemocrat/EPP Links+ ?

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Written by ACM
Saturday, 19 December 2015
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*Strasbourg/Angelo Marcopolo/- Seen from the "Mittel-Europa" Strategic Viewpoint of Strasbourg, things are Crystal-Clear, as far as Sunday's Crucial Elections in Spain are concerned :


Either Spanish People will Boost the Governing Rajoy's Christian-Democrat/European People's Party ("PP"), giving him a Chance, in one way or another, to Complete what notoriosly looks as a Hard but Succesful Economic Reform and Revival Trend, since the Catastrophe provoked in the Past by a series of former Socialist Governments who had blatantly Failed.


Or, Otherwise, Europe really Risks to be sharply Divided between the North and the South, seriously threatening to Trigger, more sooner than later, even a Break up in Two Separate Parts, which might make EU implode.


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    Almost all relevant Facts, indeed, clearly indicate that a kind of Remake, mutatis-mutandis, almost of a Similar Scenario as that of the Historic American Clash between the Northern and Southern States of what initialy was, back on 1860, only a Loose ConFederation, before Becoming, after a Hard Fought War, a much more United Federal State, giving Birth to the Today's USA, could Not be really Excluded a priori, in Today's Europe, IF this Sunday's Spanish Elections of 2015 don't Succeed to Prevent a dangerous North-South Division of Europe, which appears, Otherwise Inevitable.


    Indeed, after the Previous Political Developments in France, with President Hollande, and Italy with Prime Minister Rentzi, followed by more Recent Political Changes, in the Same Direction, mutatis-mutandis, also in Greece with Tsipras, and Portugal with Costa, after Malte, etc, the only Big Southern EU Member State with a Government of the Right, obviously, remains Spain with Prime Minister Rajoy, while All Other Southern States are Now Governed by the Left side of the Political Spectrum.


    On the Contrary, since the 2010 U-turn at the UK with David Cameron,, confirmed even more clearly on the Spring of 2015, and the Series of Stronger and Stronger Electoral Wins in Germany by Chancellor Angie Merkel's CDU/CSU, in Poland Tusk's 2007-2011 Governments followed in 2015 an even Stronger Right by Jaroslaw Kaczynski and Beata Szydło, as well as the impressive Series of Electoral Wins by Hungary's Victor Orban, Denmark's Lars Rasmussen's New 2015 Government of a Union of the Right, as well as Finland's 2015  Prime Minister Sipila - Soini and Stubb's all Right Coalition's Win, Romania's December 2014 Elected President Johannis and recent Developments concerning the New Government set up in 2015, until Bulgary's Borisov, etc., the General Trend is obviously Heading Towards the Right side of the Political Spectrum, (and this is even Stronger if one examines also the 2014 Election in Norway, and the 2015 Votes in Switzerland, etc).


    Therefore, only a ChristianDemocrat/EPP-led Government in Spain now, which could be Able to Keep and Strengthen an Important Politicial Link between the North and the South of the EU, (the other such GeoPolitical Element being, naturaly, the Franco-German EU "Motor", partly Independent from the Political color of its Leaders, which is not, however, entirely irrelevant at all). On the Contrary, if it was the Left side of the Political Spectrum would take over in Spain, then, the Opposition between North and South obviously would become so Big, that it's Doubtful if the EU could still manage to Keep a Solid Unity with an overall Political Cohesion, given, particularly, the Huge Challenges lying ahead, which Require from Europe a Concentrated Will to Act Fast and Efficiently.


    Taking into account the Fact that most Polls indicate that Partido Popular's Rajoy would rather Win this 2015 Election anew, but, probably, with an Insufficient Result for Majority, then, it seems at first sight that all depends, practicaly, on one of the 2 "New" Spanish Parties : that of the "Citizens" (Center+), which could find a way to Cooperate with a ChristianDemocrat/EPP Government in Madrid, (given also of the Fact that they are Both Favorable to the Unity of Spain). But it's current leader has notoriously expressed several Doubts and Hesitations agaist such a Center-Right Agreement, and the outcome appears Unpredictable.


    In  case that such an otherwise Normal Possibility (which would also be Closer from others to the Spanish People's overall Political Will, if the Votes go as expected), it doesn't work, at least for now, then, it seems that the only Alternative would be for the Spanish Voters to Awake Up, become fully Conscious of what is Really at Stake for the Future of Both the Country and Europe as a whole,  a Strong enough ChristianDemocrat/EPP backbone link throughout EU's North and South, (given also that Neighbouring France will notoriously hold its own, crucial Presidential and Parliamentarian Elections in almost 1 Year's Time : End of April - Beginning of May 2017). Otherwise, a more Remote and Less Probable, but Not Excluded a priori Scenario might be to Face, precisely, the "Instability" that Many Predict from these 2015 Elections in Spain, in order to Trigger, better Sooner than Later, a Brand New Electoral Bid, with much More Crystal-Clear Stakes for the People, Better and more Constructive Reflections for all involved.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              
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A "Gro-Ko" Cohabitation with Socialists is Not a Solution, but anOther Problem..
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    At any case, one thing appears Certain, already from Now : A Superficial Attempt to "Copy and Paste" or (even Worse) Impose a kind of "GroKo" Big Coalition with a Co-Habitation of the Left and the Right Sides of the Political Spectrum, by Taking Together Socialists and ChristianDemocrats/EPP traditional Parties, does NOT look good at all, because it would Provoke More Problems and Risks, (Perhaps even More Dangerous than the above-mentioned), than Solutions...


    Indeed, the main "New" aspect of these 2015 Spanish Elections being Expected to Focus rather on a Sharp Fall of the Socialists and an even Sharper Growth of 2 New, Atypical Parties, those of "Podemos", (recently Negatively Affected by Tsipras' Zig-Zags in Greece), and, even more, of "Citizens", (a Brand New rather Centrist, or Neo-Liberal Party), then, a "Duo" of the Traditional Socialist and EPP Parties would obviously look, inevitably, as if it was just a Coalition of the Past, against all those who might represent an Alternative Future, (various Corruption Scandals less).


    Moreover, even in France's recent History, a so Experienced Top Politician as former Long-Time President Jacques Chirac had notoriously Sacrificed 2 Years of Presidential Power (between 2007-2009), just to Shorten from 7 down to 5 Years his Term of office, so that the Presidential and Legislative Elections can Coincide in Dates, in order to have a Real Chance for the People to Exclude any kind of Political "Co-Habitation" between Left and Right, if one won the 1st, and another the 2nd, later-on, as it had already been done, provoking a Stagnation, Counter-Productive Tensions, Contradictions of Policy, etc, against a Healthy Democratic Alternance, only able to Give a Real Choice to the People, (and to incite the various Parties to prepare welln, strive to Find and Give the Best of themselves into such a Challenge).


    Today, given also the overall Recent Developments throughout almost all Europe, it seems quite Obvious that a "GroKo" recipe might, in Addition, prove quite Dangerous :

Indeed, already Exist and Extend Various and Numerous Concrete Examples, in Many European and Other Countries, of the Fact that People are now obviously Fed-up by such Deals among Traditional Politicians, which don't leave but Only a Few, if not None, real Chance for Citizens to have a Real Say on their Country's Political Life, augmentoing Frustrations and Popular Reactions which have already Proven that they Lead Voters, more and more, Towards Extreme or Atypical, Brand New Parties, with Unpredictable Final Results : F.ex., mutatis-mutandis : Beppe Grillo's "5 Stars Movement" in Italy, Nigel Farage's UKIP in Great Britain, the "National Front" in France, Tsipras' own "SYRIZA" post-Leftist Party and controversial "Golden Dawn"s Rightists in Greece, "Podemos" and "Citizens" in Spain (Comp. Supra), "Real Fins" Rightists in Finland, the "Alternative" in Germany, Danish and/or Norwegian Rightists, etc,

And the List is Not Finished yet in that Fast-Moving area of a Large Popular Dissatisfaction vis a vis most Traditional Political Parties, in front of several Big and New Challenges, and a Natural Seek for something more Trustworthy, Accountable and Better, most Often spontaneously Directed Out of the Old Establishment, as even the American Example currently shows in the USA, where such Various Anti-Establishment Movements are Growing already as early as Since 2008-2015...


+ Moreover, most Socialists' recent Tactics to Avoid Serious Debates on the Substance of Main Issues, but Prefer, on the Contrary, to launch Systematic Personal Attacks, Harassing their Political Adversaries with Any Kind of Misleading, Exagerated, Obscure, or even Totaly Slanderous Accusation against Themselves and/or some among their Closer Collaborators, even on Pretexts which Date from a Remote Past, (f.ex. Before they take Office, and/or Before entire Decades !), Several Times even Followed by Dangerous Physical Aggressions and Violence, (as f.ex. against former Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi, who was Hit at the Face unti Wounds Covered his Eyes with Blood ; Even Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy himself, who has just been, notoriously, Punched Violently at the Face, Breaking his Glasses and Wounding him, by a Gorilla-like looking Youngster aged 17+, shortly After a TV Debate during which the Chief of the Socialist Party, Santchez, reportedly Attacked Rajoy with a lot of various Personal Accusations, etc.

Indeed, such Methods of Systematic Personal Attacks, including with various Accusations, even outright Slandering, Repeatedly, Again and Again, Often simply Changing or Adding also Other Accusations, whenever the Previous ones might have been Proven False, Constantly Bullying their Victims in a kind of "Personailty Murder", which, in several cases, Includes also various "Judges" and/or "Prosecutors" often Appointed and/or Monitored by Socialist Governments, (etc), has Recently been Notoriously Exploited by extremely Abusive and Hateful Campaigns launched by Socialist Politicians in Many European Countries, such as, f.ex., in addition to Spain, also in France, Italy, Croatia, Slovenia, etc.


Facts which, obviously, are not only Outrageously Scandalous and Dangerously AntiDemocratic, but also Incompatible with Any Sincere and Trustworthy Cooperation between Politicaly Opposed Parties, that they make it an Impossible or Suicide-like Chimera and a Sly Trap where only Blind and Deaf might commit the Error to Naively Fall..


    In Consequence, a "GroKo" Attempt Risks to only Add to a GeoPolitical Danger, also a Systemic Danger, and/or a Sly Trap, that Both Spain and All Europe do NOT really Need Today !


    => On the Contrary, what is obviously Needed, is simply to Find New, Imaginative, but Resilient, Stable and Efficient Ways for a ReVitalized Democracy to realy Work, inter alia also by Giving EU Citizens a Say before Important Decisions affecting their Lives and/or that of the Whole Society at large, are taken, as well as, afterwards, a workable Accountability for Politicians who have undertaken a Responsibility for certain Big Choices. However, at any case, here and now, the most Important Priority is to Keep Europe basicaly United, around certain Fundamental Principles and Values, but, above all,  also thanks to a Real European Conscience in frequent interaction with the People.


(../..)
 

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***

 
("DraftNews", as already send to "EuroFora"s Subscribers/Donors, earlier. A more accurate, full Final Version might be Published asap).


***

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3 EU Parliament votes to boost EuroGroup !

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After EuroZone Paris Summit's succes, Sarkozy calls to "think anew how to re-construct Europe !

"EuroZone and EU Institutional debates pave the way to 2009 discussions on EU Future, including Enlargment, Turkey etc. ?


23 October 2008

After EU Parliament strongly suppported in 3 successive Votes this week in Strasbourg French EU Chairmanship's move to boost Euro-Group at EU's core, while ideas on EU Institutional problems are awaited on December, "it's an open Question now" if this may lead to a debate on EU's Future, or not, told us French President, Nicolas Sarkozy''s Spokesman, Pierre-Jerome Henin.

MEPs voted on Thursday fresh Funds to support EuroGroup, after adopting on Wednesday a Resolution asking a "further Evolution" to "the 1st ever meeting of Heads of State and of Government of the Euro-Zone, taking decisions in that capacity", while earlier this week a Report asked "a stronger Institutional setting" for "EuroGroup", extended from "competitiveness/industry" to "environment, employment and education", with "increased powers for Political decision-making", according to a text drafted by French MEP Francoise Beres and German MEP Werner Langen, "10 Years after the creation of Euro" (1999 - 2009).

- Brussels' subsequent "EU Council ..(simply)..ratified the measures decided by EuroGroup on October 12" in Paris, which "were necessary to contain the current Financial Crisis", Resolution observes, expressing also support to the new process succesfully initiated by Sarkozy and due to be completed by agreements with USA and other countries at a Global level.

From now on, it's between two differend but parallel moves : EU's delay, and EuroZone's acceleration, that Enlargement and particularly Turkey's controversial EU bid, will have to search its way :

Indeed, EU's 27 expect a "Roadmap on how to deal with the Irish problem" on Lisbon Treaty ratification after December, risking to pass even 2009 Elections and next Commission with the old Nice Treaty of 2000, out-dated and unfit even for 2004's Enlargement...

On the contrary, EU's core launches a real "Economic Governance for EuroZone at the highest level of Heads of State/Government" of the 15, which started in Paris on October 12 and was strongly supported this week in Strasbourg by Sarkozy and EU Parliament.
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- "It's a good idea, to launch such a debate ("on EU's Future") in EU Parliament in view of 2009 Euro-Election : Perhaps some MEPs will seize an opportunity", told us mainstream French MEP Alain Lamassoure, former EU Minister and EU Spokesman for France's governing party UMP.

- "All MEPs' debates on such EU Councils are also part of the larger debate on Europe's future : Now with EuroZone, and even more when, on December, Irish Prime Minister is due to table proposals in Strasbourg on how to deal with EU Treaty's ratification", replied earlier to our question EU Parliament's Press Director and Spokesman, Jaume Duch.
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Sarkozy has formally anounced his intention to open EU Debates on Economy, Identity/Enlargement (i.e. mainly Turkey), etc. both linked to a popular Political view of Europe, since his Historic speeches on EU in Strasbourg, on February and July 2007, when he stressed that "Europe needs a New Renaissance". At the beginning of the French EU Presidency, on July 2008, replying to a MEP, he suggested that EU Parliament takes an active part in Debates on EU's Future.

- Now, in 2008, "Crisis are an opportunity to re-think how to re-construct Europe", Sarkozy stressed. At any case, the Historic 1st EuroZone Summit of Heads of State/Government, which started replying to the Financial crisis,"is a Turning Point : After that, Europe cannot be governed as before, but differently" : People "like a Europe with Strong Will".

- "We must make the System move !", "Europe needs Innovation" and free political debates. EU "Elections are in a few Months", Sarkozy warned.

He invited EU Parliament to fully play its role as "the Democratic Heart of the Europe we want : United, Independent and Voluntarist, because the World needs Europe's voice".

- "It's no more possible for Euro-Zone to continue without an Economic Government" at the Highest Level of Heads of State/Government, who provide "Democratic Legitimity" and can take important decisions, he announced, strongly supported by EU Parliament's Economic Committee which just voted to boost the "Institutional" aspects of "EuroGroup".

Plasticity offered by the current absence of a special Treaty on EuroZone's Institutions "made it easy to adapt the organization of the 1st Summit with imagination, to efficiently meet urgent needs", he observed, on the occasion of Brittish Prime Minister's exceptionnal presence at the greatest part of EuroGroup's Paris Summit.

- "In EuroZone we have the same Bank, the same Money, and, thus, a same duty for Unity" : "By bringing together EuroGroup's 15 members States we suceeded to find a solution and prepare a Giant Plan of 1.800 Billion euros", Sarkozy reminded of Paris' 1st Historic EuroZone's Summit.

Afterwards, Brussels' EU Council followed the move, and USA's Paulson II Plan was inspired from that. "Europe must promote the idea of Global Economy's Refoundation", he stressed.

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- "I was frankly astonished when I found, at the EU, a rigid system, where any New Idea was seen from the outset as a sacrilege, while, on the contrary, Europe needs Innovation !", he described.

F.ex. ,"'When we first spoke about the "Union for the Mediterranean", it was misunderstood as something extraordinary.. When later we had the Russia -Georgia crisis, it seemed against EU's custom to act "in the middle of August", instead of staying a passive spectator ! And when, in front of the Financial ciris, we gathered the 1st EuroZone Summit of the "15", some thought of it as a lese-majesté", he denounced.
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On Geo-Political Principles :
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- But, by moving resolutely, "EU obtained the ...withdrawal of Occupation Troops in 2 Months !", reminded Sarkozy, observing that Russia "fulfilled its commitments", in the Georgian crisis, where a "disroportionate reaction" from Moscow followed a "totally inappropriate action" from Tbilisi's troops. "It would be crazy to reply by military means : EU should not become accomplice of another Cold War, imposed by lack of cool heads".. as he said.

In future, "the creation of a common European Economic Area with EU and Russia, would also obtain a raprochment on our Human Rights and Democratic Values", added Sarkozy, in a statement which should logically be applied, a fortiori, to controversial EU "candidate" Turkey..

Particularly when, the same week that EU Parliament voted 2009 EU Funds for Turkey's controversial EU bid, ECHR took a series of judgements condemning Turkey for grave Violations of Human Rights, such as : Torture, death of a political prisoner in unclear circumstances followed by failure to conduct a proper Investigation, "enforced Disappearance" of a youngster aged 17, Killing of a sepherd with Tank Shells, persecuting Journalists for articles on "Missing" People, even a former President of Human Rights' Association, (etc)

- "We (EU) can defend our ideas on respect of Sovereignity and territorial Integrity, on Human Rights and other differences ... without confrontation", Sarkozy stressed, on the occasion of Russian/Georgian conflict, reminding that : "we were only 2 steps from catastroph", when a Peace agreement brokered in Moscow prevented, at the last minute, Russian troops' advance towards Tbilisi.

An EU Parliament Resolution adopted Wednesday in Strasbourg on the occasion of Russia - Georgia conflict, outlines a set of Principle which apply elsewhere too, (particularly when EU Rapporteur for Russia and Turkey is one and same person ; Dutch MEP Ria Oomen-Ruijtanen !)

Clearly rejecting any "military solution to the conflicts", MEPs "condemn ..all those who resorted to force and violence". They denounce a "disproportionate military action", "as well as (an) unilateral decision to recognise the independence" of brekaway regions, "calling.. to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity" of the concerned country, "and the inviolability of its borders recognised by all EU Member States". They warn that "EU must review its policy towards" a 3rd Country, "should .(it)...not comply with its commitments", and "stress that the withdrawal of.... troops from the areas ....is an essential additional step".

EU Parliament "calls for the safe and quick return of refugees, (accepted by Russian President Medvedev) accompanied by the deployment of EU observers on the ground", and "regrets ...that ..EU Monitoring Mission (EUMM) is not allowed to enter the ...breakaway regions". Moreover, "It's important to ensure that persons and NGOs ..engaged in defending human and civil rights can operate". "Until ...all remaining issues (are) resolved..., and notably the continuing ...Military presence", "relations with the EU ..cannot be fully normalised", MEPS warned.

As nobody likes to be accused to practice "Double Standards", this should be regarded as "Principles" applicable to any Third Country at EU's Neighborhood.. No ?

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On Economy :

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- "When Financial crisis shook US and EU's Banks, without result from the 1st (American) Paulsen plan, it was the common reply of the 1st EuroZone's Summit, involving some 1800 Billion euros, which started a positive move in the markets, soon strengthened by the follow-up of the US Paulson 2 Plan, noted Sarkozy.

- "Europe should not be only on the defensive, but, if necessary, know also how to take an offensive", he said, brushing away hesitationsto act on Economy: - "I'm for a refondation of Capitaliism, but against Speculators, who betray its values" : "Lack of Rules was profitable to speculators, Not to businessmen !" We must make sure to prevent any such crisis in future". "We, the rest of the World, cannot continue to bear the deficits of the 1st World power without saying anything !", the French President said, applauded by EU Parliament. All this needs "a New Global Governance", on which EU Parliament must debate. That's why "we proposed together with USA, several Summits from mid-November", to which G-8, enlarged to China, India a.o. countries, should participate. UNO's SG; Ban Ki Moon, the IMF, etc.

Financial crisis lowered shares' prices even for healthy companies, sometimes to 1/3 of their initial price, so that strangers might buy EU industries for only a portion of their real value, and Europeans may wake up one day with their main industries sold out to foreigners !

That's one of the reasons for which EU should debate about creating "Golden Shares" for States to jointly take Strategic participations to help European Industries until the end of the Crisis, particularly against distording competition, he suggested, pointing at USA's 35 billion $ plan for American Car Industry."We shall struggle for Europe to be able to build Airplanes, Ships, Trains, Cars, because we need a strong Industry", he concluded.

"F.ex. as we did back in 2004, when as Finance Minister, we bought Alsthom's shares for 800.000 euros, and, after restructuring, we sold them for 2 Millions : Help a company and make money is not so bad"...

As for the UK, "when Ireland announced that it would guarantee only Irish Banks, London City emptied from liquidities in 24 hours : It's the EU which helped to restore the situation, Not the UK alone !", reminded Sarkozy to nationalist British MEP Nigel Farage.

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On the contrary, in a last-minute attempt for the EU to catch-up with its Institutional delay "before the European Elections" of June 2009, MEPs simply voted a call for a "set of proposals" to be made for the "Irish public opinion" at the end of the year...

- "As long as Lisbon Treaty is not ratified by all 27 EU Member States, there is an unanimous decision to stop Enlargement, reminded Wednesday in Strasbourg the French Minister for EU affairs, Jean-Pierre Jouyet..

Added to an indirect but clear warning that, without Lisbon Treaty, all 27 EU Member Countries may not have a Commissioner in the 2009 resuffle, MEPS in the Constitutional/Foreign affairs Committees applauded hoping that this might motivate their Irish friends..

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