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Home arrow newsitems arrow Slovenian People Voted for Center-Right Majority (Headed by f. twice Prime Minister+EU Chair Jansa)

Slovenian People Voted for Center-Right Majority (Headed by f. twice Prime Minister+EU Chair Jansa)

Автор ACM
Воскресенье, 03 Июнь 2018
slovenia_2018_election_results_coalitions_potential__estimation_eurofora_400


*Strasbourg/Angelo Marcopolo/- An Absolute Majority, (of about 48 MPs out of a Total of 90), in Slovenia's Parliament can be, normaly, reached by the Center-Right, Headed by the Experienced former Twice Prime Minister Janez Jansa, (and former EU President in office: See Infra), whose "SDS" Party came Clearly 1st in Today's National Elections for the Period of 2018-2023.


The move is closely Watched both by European and Global Players, as it seems also Related to Wider, New Political Trends, during the run up to the Forthcoming, Crucial EU Parliament's Elections, scheduled in Less than a Year's Time, on May 2019, and to Different Strategy Options, currently "Hotly" Debated throughout Many EU Member Countries, (See Infra).


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    >>> Indeed, according to the Full Results, Jansa's Center-Right Party "SDS", which came 1st currently by the Biggest Number of MPs (25+), may Lead an Absolute Majority Coalition that could be Formed f.ex. with the "ChristianDemocrats/New Slovenia" ("NSI") Party which has now 7 MPs, and the so-called "Rightists" (in fact Atypical Right) of the "SNS" Party (which just re-Entered Parliament after years of absence) with 4 MPs, Extended to an a priori Logical Deal with the Centrists of the "SMC" Party (10 MPs). I.e. resulting into a Group of 46 MPs, out of the 90 that has in Total the Slovenian Parliament.


+ Moreover, given also the Links between the Slovenian Right with the Hungarian Right of Victor Orban, and the Italian new "Atypical" Coalition between the "5 Stars Movement" and Mateo Savini's "Lega" (mainly at the North, and particularly in the NE Region around Venice's Adriatic Coasts), it seems Probable that Jansa might also receive the Endorsement of the + 2 Italian and Hungarian Minority MPs, thus making his Coalition Grow up to a Stronger 48 (out of 90) MPs Absolute Majority.


++ Last, but not least, Slovenian People's 2018 Real Choice for the Right Side of the Political Spectrum, in Fact, Goes even Further : The Biggest Number of Votes among those Parties which did Not Cross the 4% Threshold required in order to Enter the Parliament went, by far, to the Conservative "Slovenian People's Party" (SLS : which had won MPs in Coalition with the "ChristianDemocrats" in the Past, f.ex. on 2008), Getting 2,7% with 23.131 Votes, (while, among Various Others, in Comparison,  f.ex. the "Greens" got Only 1% and 9.407 Votes, and the "Left Unity" Only 0,5% and 4,933 Votes, etc)...


Interestingly, the "SLS"' Conservatives, (after Reaching a Pic High in the 1996 Elections with 19 MPs), they have Already succesfully Cooperated with the "Christian Democrats" of "New Slovenia" ("NSI") Party, as Early as since 2000, in the National Parliament Elections, (when they had got 8 MPs), and again in the 2014 European Elections, when they Won, Together, about 17 % of the Votes, (Holding, Since then, 2 MEPs in EU Parliament).


Concerning that  "ChristianDemocrats-New Slovenia" ("NSI") Party, it has just Won +2 MPs more, (Getting 7 MPs in all), as it Regularly does, already during the 3 Latest elections :  2011, 2014 and 2018. It is represented in EU Parliament also by the former Prime Minister of Slovenia (1996-1998) Aloisj Peterle, himself a former Foreign Minister and Prime Minister, recently Top MEP and Head of EU - FYROM Delegation, who has given various Responses to "Eurofora"s Questions on Topical Issues, (including on our Project for EU Citizens Debates with MEPs Before they take Decisions affecting their Lives ad/or Society at large, (See, f.ex., at : http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/topmeppeterleoncitizensdebatesbeforeeudecisions.html, etc).


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 * However, it's also true that an Exceptionaly Big Number of Various, even "Original", Political Parties took part in this 2018 Elections :  26 in all (10 with MPs and 16 WithOut), among which, were Included Also 10 "New" Parties, (9 withOut MPs, and 1 with MPs).


Among them, those Small Parties which were Excluded from Parlementarian Representation (16), just Because they didn't cross the Threshhold with a required Minimum of 4%), got, in Total, some 12,69% of the Votes !


 I.e. even More than the SECOND BIG Party in Slovenia, (12,66% : "LMS"), a New one, which bears the Name of a former Comedian, recently Mayor of a Village and shortly Failed Candidate for the Presidency, reportedly in favor of Private Pensions, Abortion, Homosexuality and Legalizing Cannabis, etc, Marjan Sarec, for whom Left-leaning "NYT" Establishment's Newspaper sees "Prime Ministerial" Ambitions...


Sarec is on record for having Excluded any Coalition with "Populists" (as those of the former Twice Prime Minister and current Winner of the 2018 Election, Jansa), and even for Calling to Aggravate even Further the above-mentioned, Record-High Exclusion of Small Parties from the Parliament (about 12,7% of People's Votes), by Imposing an Even Higher Threshhold Level, Before they might be Allowed to have any MP.


But the Non-Represented Small Parties, which, taken together with the Invalid/Blanc Votes, Gathered Now More than 116.000 + Registered Voters, (i.e. Higher even than the 2nd Big Party, LPSarec's Votes : some 111.000), Include not only 9 New Parties, Totaling almost 13% of the Casted Votes, but also Many "Atypical" Parties, such as, f.ex., "for a Healthy" or "Fair Society", "Good Country", anOther "Journalist ...Pozar",  "Save ...from Elite and Tycoons", "Pirate Party", etc. : I.e. a Lot of Converging Facts which Clearly Indicate a Currently Growing Popular Trend for Citizens to Search for Something New, Original and which would be Really Able to Protect and Promote the People's Main Interests Nowadays.


A Recent Phenomenon, which was also Oberved, until now, Not Only in Slovenia, but Also Elsewhere in Europe, f.ex., among Others, also in Greece (between 2011 - 2017+), in the Czech Republic, (particularly in the Latest Elections there : See ...), etc.


=> Therefore, Frontrunner Janez Jansa, Leader of the currently 1st Bigger Party "SDS", from the Center-Right, should be Well Advised, (even, and particularly, in case of eventual New Elections, if a Stable Majority might, perhaps, be Not Found this time), to Search Well for any Real Possibility for Coalition with Like-Minded People, Now and in the foreseeable Future, even if, a priori, they might, eventually, Appear to be of this or that kind of "Atypical" trend, in surface : In Fact, what Counts Most is the Substance of the Main Issues, (as, inter alia, f.ex., the recent Italian New Government Coalition between the Atypical "5 Stars Movement" and "Lega", Based on an Agreed Joint Program Focused on Key Issues, also shows, in one way or another).


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Jansa is well Known personaly to "Eurofora", already since his role on Past rotating EU Presidency as Early as already since 2008, (particularly via EU Parliament in Strasbourg), but also during his frequent Participations to the ChristianDemocrats/EPP Party's Summits until recently in Brussels, (See, inter alia, also, f.ex. : http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/eustrategyongreeceshengenmediterranean.html, etc).
He was notoriously Supported, this time, also by the popular, 3-times in a row re-Elected Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban (in his 4rth Term since 2000), particularly on the Topical European Issue of recent Mass Asylum Seekers/Irregular Migrants since 2015/2016 mainly through Turkey, etc, and other Topical matters.


And, by a in interesting Topical Coincidence, this June 2018 Slovenian Election's Results came just a Few Days After "Eurofora" had, precisely, Raised the Question of Victor Orban's Popular Choices in certain Key Policies Nowadays, in view of the Fothcoming, crusial EU Parliament's Elections of May 2019, to the Experienced President of the ChristianDemocrat/EPP Party (HeadQuartered in Brussels), former Long-Time Strasbourg's Top MEP, Joseph Daul, on May 29, (See: ...).


But the overall Electoral Victory of the Slovenian Center-Right will certainly be Welcomed, inter alia, also by USA President Don Trump's Wife Melania, who personaly stems from Slovenia...

 

(../..)

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People in Europe and the World expect from CoE to make a succes of its "Monitoring" for Human Rights and Democracy, despite difficulties, said Finland's President Tarja Halonen to "EuroFora" at a crucial moment for the mecanism built 15 years ago by the paneuropean organization which celebrates its 60th Anniversary in 2009.

Halonen, known as "Mother" of CoE's "Monitoring" mecanism, a long-time MEP and former Foreign Minister before becoming Finland's President, holds a long experience in the mattter, after also serving twice as CoE and EU Chairwoman in the past. That's why she is well placed to judge how CoE's "monitoring" should deal today with some crucial issues of importance both to CoE and to the EU.

The move came just a Month before a crucial, last visit to Turkey, scheduled for June, by the President of CoE''s "Monitoring" Committee, Ukranian MEP Serge Holovaty, to finalize his Report on Ankara, the CoE Member State with the longest Monitoring procedure. From its results depends its overall credibility.

This is a Test-case, because, in fact, it's in order to avoid Sanctions threatened against Turkey by a CoE's Assembly's April 1995 Resolution for grave Human Rights violations, Democracy gaps, the continuing Military Occupation in Cyprus, the unresolved Kurdish problem, Aegean differend with Greece, etc., that MEPs decided to create, for the 1st time on April 1996, a "Monitoring" proces, allegedly destinated to check, without excluding Countries who did not fulfill all CoE's standards.

In the Past, the obliged withdrawal of Greece's Military regime and of its "Civil" cover-up out of the CoE had helped bring back Democracy in 1974. But, on the contrary, since April 1996, the idea was to "monitor" Human Rights' respect while keeping most concerned Countries inside the CoE. After Turkey's oldest example, this was extended also to several former "Eastern" European Countries, even if CoE's Assembly has imposed to some of them (fex. Ukraine, Russia, etc., after Belarus, Serbia, etc) various "Sanctions", that Ankara always avoided. Curiously more succesful even than .. USA itself, (a CoE "Observer" since 1995), which has been at least threatened with sanctions some years ago..

EU-effects of CoE's Monitoring process became obvious between 2001-2008, since the "closure" of this procedure, when CoE felt that a Country had met most of its Human Rights, Democracy and Rule of Law obligations, (i.e. the "Copenhagen Criteria" for the EU), helped trigger Negotiations with the EU for "Accession" or other closer relations : This occured already before the 2004 and 2007 EU Enlargements to former "Eastern" European Countries, as well as for the commencement of "accession" negotiations with Croatia, and of "open-ended" negotiations with Turkey in 2005.

    But a stricking new development are Holovaty's recent findings that on core Human Rights issues as Torture and Freedom of Expression, Turkey, even "5 Years after" CoE closed its "Monitoring", back in 2004, inciting EU to start accession Negotiations in 2005, still presents grave problems.

    His findings are of crucial importance after a 2008 CoE Resolution called, "if need be", to "seriously consider the possibility of Re-Opening the Monitoring procedure for Turkey" : A move which might affect Ankara's controversial EU bid, since EU Accession Negotiations are based on the Hypothesis that the Candidate fullfils the "Copenhagen Criteria" (See above)..
-------------------------
    Holovaty expressed his will to check  "Matters still Outstanding" and  those that he "didn't have an opportunity to discuss" at an earlier visit this year, "in order to discuss the more complex issues in greater depth", at his forthcoming New Visit to Ankara, before the December 2009 EU Summit.  This is all based on the 2004 CoE Resolution which stresses that, CoE "will continue.. post-monitoring Dialogue with the Turkish authorities,...in addition to a 12-points list,..and on any Other Matter that might arise in connection with Turkey’s Obligations as a CoE member state".

    CoE's Resolution also asks  from Turkey "to secure the proper Implementation of Judgements, particularly in the Cyprus v. Turkey InterState case", of 2001, which concerns also the plight of many Hundreds of MISSING People. It adds Turkey's obligations to "execute" ECHR's Judgements in the Loizidou case,..and in particular adopt General Measures to avoid repetition or continuation of Violations found by the Court" to the detriment of Refugees.

    Nevertheless, Holovaty said to "EuroFora" that "MISSING" persons,"might be included" and cannot be excluded, but he has yet to examine the situation "to find out  which issues will be raised" to the Turkish Government.

    Therefore, "EuroFora" asked Halonen, as the Historic "Mother" of CoE's Monitoring mecanism, if she thought that, "whenever there are grave Human Rights Violations, as fex. "MISSING" persons, attested even by ECHR's judgements, they should be always checked by a Monitoring process. Or could they be forgotten ?"
    
     - "We (CoE) must be, at the same time, Fair, Realistic, but not in the mind that "now we have Forgotten", etc., replied to "EuroFora"'s question Halonen, speaking as a matter of general principle.

    - "When we think of those People that are suffering from the lack of Democracy, of Human Rights, and of the Rule of Law", "we should find a base on how to deal with the (Monitoring) system more rapidly"', she stressed.

    - "Sometimes it's very difficult to combine Transparency and Effectivenes together, particularly in this specific case", she went on to say. But, "I have not found a (CoE Member) Country who could be insensitive in this sens", Halonen answered concerning grave Human Rights violations attested by the ECHR.

    - "I have no ready-made answer. I have the expectations that you, in the CoE, will, step by step, find the different types of the monitoring systems."

    Also "because this is a part of the UN's Post-Conflict system, (fex. when it comes to Cyprus' MISSING persons), and it's a more Global system". So that, "If we make a succes in Europe, the others will follow", throughout the World.  "But they expect that we (Europe) are this opportunity, this Opportunity to make a Succes", Halonen concluded.

    In addition, she advised to extend CoE's Monitoring to all its 47 Member States, "because, as long as we hear that, all these monitoring systems are "OK for the neighbor, but not for me", "it's very difficult" to understand. Something which could make easier to Compare...

    Finnish MEP Jaako Laakso, former CoE Rapporteur on the Occupied Territories of Cyprus and one of the 5 Signatories of the Historic CoE's call to create the "MONITORING" mecanism since 1996, was more specific :  - "We (CoE Assembly) have to find a way for the issue of Cyprus' MISSING People to be better followed", he stressed, anouncing his intention to "speak to Mr. Holovaty" about that. "There might be also other ways", added Laakso.

    - The 2008 "Year had been a very Bad one for Turkey with regard to Human Rights in general, and Freedom of Expression in particular", denounced, meanwhile, Holovaty's preliminary Post-Monitoringh Draft Report by Holovaty, published by the CoE on April 2009.

    "Amnesty International believes that freedom of expression is not guaranteed given the various articles of the Criminal Code that restrict it. .. "For example, 1,300 Websites are said to have been closed down by the (Turkish) authorities in 2008" ! While "the new Turkish Criminal Code was used to bring a total of 1,072 proceedings between June 2005 and April 2008, and led to the conviction of 192 people", for expressing views. "Representatives of the Özgür Gündem newspaper, which specialises in Kurdish affairs, ..complained about Numerous Attacks on their Freedom of Expression ...as was everyone who advocated a settlement to the question by means other than the intervention of the army" "According to their figures, 19 Newspapers had been suspended 43 times between 4 August 2006 and 4 November 2008" !...

    Moreover, on 2008,  CoE's "Ministers adopted its 4rth Resolution on the execution of the judgments of the ECHR, ...and outstanding issues regarding 175 Judgements and decisions relating to Turkey delivered between 1996 and 2008...  concerning Deaths resulting from the excessive use of force by members of the Security forces, the failure to protect the right to life, the DIisappearance and/or death of individuals, Ill-Treatment and the Destruction of property". CoE's " Ministers urged the Turkish authorities ...to ensure that members of Security forces of all ranks can be prosecuted without administrative
authorisation" for "serious crimes". Holovaty reminded.

"Nonetheless", Holovaty heard anew of "Several cases of Violence committed last year (2008) by the (Turkish) security forces". Amnesty International speaks of Many Cases of ill-treatment and Torture in the prisons and by the police". "Including, fex."'the death of Engin Ceber, a young man of 29 who died on October 2008 as a result of the TORTURE allegedly inflicted on him by police officers, prison staff and members of the gendarmerie. He was part of a group of people arrested on September 2008 during a demonstration and Press Conference in Istanbul'. Proceedings against suspects are "on-going" in this case.

- " I therefore noted an Obvious Contradiction between the Government’s stated “zero tolerance” policy.... of Torture and other forms of ill-treatment, and the different testimonies given", denounced CoE's Rapporteur.  Turkish "authorities must make considerable efforts to guarantee that proper investigations are carried out into allegations of abuses by members of the security forces and that perpetrators are effectively punished" "In this respect, I have requested detailed Statistics on the number of Investigations, acquittals and convictions in cases involving allegations of abuse in order to show the positive impact of the measures taken to date", Holovaty said, repeating a permanently unsatisfied CoE's demand to Turkey since a Decade...

    - "The Political Crisis that shook the country in the spring of 2008 highlighted the Weaknesses of the (Turkish) Constitution", which comes from the Military regime of 1982, "and the Urgent Need of Reforms", stressed from the outset CoE's Rapporteur in 2009. In particular, "the ...Democratic functioning of state institutions, including the independence of the judicial system, are crucial", he observes.

    But, "the Electoral  system and the ways in which it is circumvented do not appear to give those elected complete Legitimacy, and tend to pervert the course of direct universal suffrage", denounces Holovaty, observing that, even 5 Years later, Turkey did not yet change the 10% nationwide Threshold for a party to take any seat, which is "far higher" than the "3%" maximum in Europe and already condemned as contrary to European Standards by the CoE.

    + Moreover, EU Parliament's 2009 Report on Turkey, drafted by Dutch MEP Ria Oomen-Ruijten and adopted in Strasbourg on March, expresses "Concern over the Failure of the (Turkish) Judiciary to prosecute cases of Torture and Ill-treatment, the Number of which is Growing". EU also "is concerned about continuing Hostility and Violence against Minorities" in Turkey. It also "calls on the Turkish Government to launch, as a matter of Priority, a Political Initiatve favouring a lasting Settlement of the Kurdish issue, (while "condemning violence.. and terrorist groups"). EU "regrets that No progress has been made on establishing full, systematic Civilian suprevisory functions over the (Turkish) Military".

    The final results of Holovaty's 2nd and last visit to Turkley will be known later this year, and, at any case, before EU's December 2009 Summit.

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2009 EU Elections were won by Parties against Technocracy and Turkey's controversial EU bid, while the 1999-2004 Majority Abstention trend decelerated. What should be done in 2009-2014 ?

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