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Home arrow newsitems arrow After German Regional Elections: Merkel can be Wiser than some think..

After German Regional Elections: Merkel can be Wiser than some think..

Written by ACM
Monday, 14 March 2016
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*Strasbourg/Angelo Marcopolo/- The latest Results in 3 Strategic German Länder, key for next year's (2017) National Elections, (which will follow in Berlin shortly after Paris' own Presidential and Parliamentary votes, both obviously crucial for Europe), heavily commented throughout EU and Worldwide, may be, in fact, very much Differend from what many believe at first sight :

- Instead of just threatening to reduce Chancelor Angie Merkel chances for the 2017 National Elections, as it's often claimed, on the contrary, these and other relevant recent developments, may considerably extend further her possibilities for various eventual political Majority coalitions and space for manouvers, advancing well beyond what used to be the case in the Past.


Indeed, for more than a Decade now, the Governing ChristianDemocrats of Merkel were obliged to form successive Coalitions mainly with SocialDemocrats and sometimes with Liberals, until Obama's USA pushed the FDP out of the Bundestag on 2013, because of its alleged Refusal of a Military Intervention in Syria, (Comp., f.ex., CNN-Europe1 Invitation of "Eurofora" in Paris for a Media debate on German National Elections: ....).


  Back on 2013, after a landmark campaign launched on August at Ludwigshafen, (Comp. "Eurofora"s NewsReport from the spot, at ....) with Popular issues such as against "Multi-Kulti", but for Integration, support to revigorate Families, as well as a strong Germany and Europe in the World (etc), Merkel notoriously succeeded to approach an Autonomous Majority of Votes for CDU/CSU, in the National Elections of September 2013, with about 40%.


=> Immediately afterwards, at the October 2013 EU Summit in Brussels, she made a landmark appearance, inspiring a Dynamic and autonomous European policy, particularly on Digital High-Tech, artfuly associated to the popular then issues of the need to Protect Private and Personal Data, Internet Freedoms, etc., (in the middle of the Snowden affair revelations about NSA Mass Spying from the USA, etc), linking EU Economic development and innovation, (including also modernisation of Industry by Information/Communication Technologies and automatisation), with Topical concerns of EU Citizens in their everyday Lives. She appeared to have reached her Geo-Political apogee...


However, overnight, during the counting of full electoral results, ChristianDemocrats' leadership was unexpectedly curtailed with - 4 MPs less than an Autonomous Majority, pushing again towards another CoHabitation in the next Government, (even in the absence of Liberals from the Bundestag: Comp. Supra).


Certainly, there are even Recent Examples, Worldwide, of some Governments which managed to rule Autonomously their country for several Years even with the Addition of just 4 Independent MPs, as, f.ex., in Australia, etc.


But, in Germany, after an interesting and unprecedented 1st Attempt to form a Christiandemocrat-"Green" Government, (which could break New Ground if it was focused also on crucial topical issues of modern BioEthics, etc, : Comp. "Eurofora"s relevant NewsReports, already since 2009, but mainly from the 2010 CDU and Greens' Summits at nearby Karlsruhe and Freiburg, as well as from Pope Emerite Benedict's 2011 landmark Speech at the Bundestag, followed by his visit also to Freiburg and relevant Statements of Vatican's Press Director Frederico Lombardi to "Eurofora", plus Winfried Kretschmann's Replies to "Eurofora"s Questions on 2010 and 2011, etc), that was undermined by some and hindered, possibly also because it might have been Precosious, practicaly resulting into a kind of "RDV" given for further, fresh consideration around 2017, Merkel, (despite the Edaty Scandal on the pederastic habits of SPD's Anti-Rightist Mediatic Star), was obliged to Return Back to a "Gro-Ko" with the Socialists again.

On December 2013 EU Summit in Brussels, the Internet, NSA, Snowden and Private/Personal Data (etc) issues are practically Forgotten, (See, f.ex., French President Hollande's reply to a relevant "Eurofora"s Question there).

On the Contrary, since November 2013, the Ukranian Conflict starts to emerge, doubled with Criticism of Russia, etc. Vainly Merkel anounces (during her Press Conference in Brussels : Comp. "Eurofora"s NewsReports from the spot) her intention to meet soon with all relevant Top Politicians in order to seek a mutually positive solution, including, f.ex., on the EU - Russia Trade relations, (which might unfold into a Portugal - Vladivoctoc large Trade Area, according to some Austrian, Finnish, a.o. Officials). Instead of that, onn January 2014, an unprecedented incident, at an International Swiss Hotspot, obliges her to walk with Crutches, (some collegues obviously suspecting an eventual sly aggression), and on February 2014, during a Paris' Franco-German Summit, a Bloody Ukranian Division and Civil War-like clash Starts, (particularly after the Non-elucidated yet Killings by strange "Snipers" at Kiev, and the subsequent Tank/Air Bombing attacks against Autonomists at Donetsk/Luhansk Regions, making a dramatically Growing number of Civilian Victims), seriously affecting Europe's Values, Peace, Unity and even Economy, (amidst the infamous ..."F..k the EU !" Phone calls of US under-Secretary of State Mrs Nuland, etc).


Last, but not least, later-on, during CDU's Annual Summit in Berlin towards the End of 2014, Chancelor Merkel reveals her Anger for Socialists' controversial move to follow the "Linke" (Left) at a Regional Länder coalition, even as Minor Partner, (See relevant "Eurofora"s NewReport at: ...).

=> All this, might explain what followed, shortly Afterwards :

- Intead of being cornered always in an obligatory cohabitation with an unfaithfull SPD, suiddenly, Merkel's CDU policy starts to practically provoke the emergence of various Other, New or Old Political Actors, at the Right side of Germany's Political Spectrum, who grow Fast, and become (at least theoratically (and/or "Technicalluy") possible coalition partners able to support anOther Majority, practically Ending CDU's "isolation" among the center-Right:

Thus, f.ex., FDP's Liberals, according to the latest, March 2016 partial Regional Elections' results, are comming back to the main Political Game. A new "Alternative for Germany" (less focused on €uro than in the Past, and more concerned about Identity, Security and Integration, etc) marks unprecedented results, (added also to various independent a.o. players). "Greens" stand firm, at least in certain Key Regions, (such as the nearby Baden-Wurttemberg Lânder, etc), while, on the contrary, SPD often Falls Down to levels making the continuation of some cohabitations of the Past, practically Impossible, from now on, (f.ex. in BW, Sachsen, etc).

In consequence, ChristianDemocrats' technically possible partners appear to suddenly Multiply, (particularly towards the Right side of the Political spectrum), so that Merkel could have much More possible Choices to consider in view of Next Year's 2017 National Elections than in the Past.

F.ex. :

- FDP's Liberals seem to return back into the mainstream Political Game, almost everywhere, and could be useful Partners anew for ChristianDemocrats.

- SPD's eratic movements, (f.ex. Falling too low in some Regions, but strong in others, obviously make another Gro-Ko more Difficult than in the Past, but not always impossible.

- "Greens" are strengthened mainly at nearby Baden-Wurttemberg, where Winfried Kretschmann can have a large Majority together with CDU's Guido Wolf, (but no more with the Socialists, who fell too low for that). Such a move, (possibly driven by New, Renewable Energy Technologies and respect of Nature, including Human BioEthics, (Comp. Supra), could also be in relative Harmony with the neighbouring Strasbourg's new Big East Region's President, experienced former Minister Philippe Richert's recent Election, which was obtained, for the 1st time, also with a small but crucial contribution by "Green" politician Sandrine Belier, former MEP (See: http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/franceregionelelectionsrepublicanswithgreensorfnrightistsforstrasbourg.html).

+ New political Party "Alternative for Germany", (AfG - Rightists), obviously wins a lot of more Votes, almost everywhere, while its leaders reportedly don't exclude eventual cooperations with the CDU/CSU, technicaly possible, (See relevant Electoral Results).
In this regard, (as it happened, already, also for an eventual CDU - Greens Coalition at BW, etc), verbal denials from one or another side cannot resist to political realities, neither to the Democratically expressed will of the German People.


=> Moreover, it's interesting to note the unexpected and unprecedented Fact that, if Merkel wished so, after the latest Regional Elections in 3 Key Länder, her Christiandemocrats could, in theory, be the Leaders of Majority Coalitions at the Right side of the Political Spectrum,, together with the "Alternative" and the Liberals, in ALL cases :


- Not only in Saxony-Anhalt, with almost 30% CDU and 25% AfD and 4% FDP, (i.e. an absolute Majority of some 59% in overall), but also in Rheinland-Palatinate, with about 32% CDU, 13% AfD and 6,5% FDP, (i.e. a Total of more than 51%), and even in Baden-Wurttemberg with 27% CDU 15,1% AfD and 8,5% FDP, (i.e. beyond 50,5%).


In terms of Elected Representatives, this could give absolute Majorities of 77 Seats against 66 in Baden-Wurttemberg, 56 Seats against 45 in Rheinland-Palatinate, and 54 against 33 in Saxony-Anhalt.


Even if all that is, at least for the Time being, rather a pure Mathematical possibility and nothing more, however, it's also a Fact that becoming theoreticaly able to Lead 3 new Absolute Majorities of 50,5%, 51% and 59% of Votes, (and much More in the number of Elected Representatives : Comp. Supra), in all Three Länder where the latest Regional Elections took place, is not really a mark of a so-called "Setback", contrary to what some critics claim, but rather a mark of a new, unprecedented Strength of the Right side of the Political Spectrum among German People.


Isn't it, with a Total of 187 Seats of Elected Representatives for the Right, against only 144 for the Left, in those three key German States ?...



(../..)
 

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("DraftNews", as already send to "EuroFora"s Subscribers/Donors, earlier. A more accurate, full Final Version might be Published asap).


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(Opinion).

 In Democracy, the forthcoming choices for EU's Top Jobs, as the New EU Parliament's President, new EU Commission's President (+ probably EU Council's President, EU Foreign Minister, etc) should be made according to EU Citizens' Votes in June 7, 2009 European Elections, and main EU Governments' strategic policies.

At the heart of the biggest EU Countries, in France and Germany, EU Citizens clearly voted for a renovated, non-technocratic but Political Europe based on Values, declared explicitly incompatible with Turkey's controversial EU bid.

This main choice was also supported in several other small or medium EU Countries, such as Austria (cf. promise of a Referendum), Spain (cf. EPP program's reservations vis a vis Enlargment), etc., while EPP Parties won also in Poland, Hungary, Cyprus, etc.

In other Countries, whenever Governing coalitions didn't make these choices or eluded them, continuing to let a Turkish lobby push for its entry into the EU, they paid a high price, and risked to damage Europe, by obliging EU Citizens to massively vote for euro-Sceptics whenever they were the only ones to offer a possibility to promise  real change and oppose Turkey's demand to enter into the EU :

It's for this obvious reason that British UKIP (IndDem) succeeded now (after many statements against Turkey's EU bid) to become Great Britain's 2nd Party, unexpectedly growing bigger even than the Governing Labour Party, as well as the Liberal party  ! Facts prove that it's not an isolated phenomenon : A similar development occured in the Netherlands, where Geert Wilders "Party for Freedom" (PVV) became also the 2nd biggest in the country, (after EPP), boosting the chances of a politician who had withdrawn in 2004 from an older party "because he didn't agree with their position on Turkey". And in several other EU Member Countries, even previously small parties which now focused on a struggle against Turkey's controversial demand to enter in the EU, won much more or even doubled the number of their MEPs (fex. Bulgaria, Hungary, Greece, etc).

On the contrary, whenever Socialist and oher parties were explicitly or implicitly for Turkey's controversial EU bid, they obviously lost Citizens' votes and fell down to an unprecedented low.

In consequence, EU Citizens clearly revealed their main political choices, in one way or another : They voted to change for less Bureaucracy, but more Politics and Values in a Europe really open to EU Citizens, but without Turkey's controversial EU bid.

Recent political developments are obviously different from the old political landscape which existed in the Past of 1999-2004, when Socialists based on Turkish 1% vote governed undisputed not only in Germany, but also in the UK, Greece and elsewhere, France followed old policies decided when it had been divided by "cohabitation", before the 3 "NO" to EU  Referenda since May 2005, before Merkel, before Sarkozy, etc.... before the surprises of 7 June 2009 new EU Elections.

If the current candidates to the Top EU jobs promise and guarantee to respect People's democratic choices, OK.

Otherwise, Europe must find new candidates, really motivated and able to implement these democratic choices of the People.

The beginning of crucial, final Decisions are scheduled for the 1st EU Parliament's plenary session in Strasbourg, in the middle of July, and they could be completed towards the October session, when Lisbon Treaty's fate will have been fixed.


See relevant Facts also at : http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/2009electionsandturkey.html
http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/daulelections.html
http://www.eurofora.net/brief/brief/euroelectionresult.html

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