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Home arrow newsitems arrow After German Regional Elections: Merkel can be Wiser than some think..

After German Regional Elections: Merkel can be Wiser than some think..

Written by ACM
Monday, 14 March 2016
german_regional_elections_in_3_lnder_2016_source_welt_400_01

*Strasbourg/Angelo Marcopolo/- The latest Results in 3 Strategic German Länder, key for next year's (2017) National Elections, (which will follow in Berlin shortly after Paris' own Presidential and Parliamentary votes, both obviously crucial for Europe), heavily commented throughout EU and Worldwide, may be, in fact, very much Differend from what many believe at first sight :

- Instead of just threatening to reduce Chancelor Angie Merkel chances for the 2017 National Elections, as it's often claimed, on the contrary, these and other relevant recent developments, may considerably extend further her possibilities for various eventual political Majority coalitions and space for manouvers, advancing well beyond what used to be the case in the Past.


Indeed, for more than a Decade now, the Governing ChristianDemocrats of Merkel were obliged to form successive Coalitions mainly with SocialDemocrats and sometimes with Liberals, until Obama's USA pushed the FDP out of the Bundestag on 2013, because of its alleged Refusal of a Military Intervention in Syria, (Comp., f.ex., CNN-Europe1 Invitation of "Eurofora" in Paris for a Media debate on German National Elections: ....).


  Back on 2013, after a landmark campaign launched on August at Ludwigshafen, (Comp. "Eurofora"s NewsReport from the spot, at ....) with Popular issues such as against "Multi-Kulti", but for Integration, support to revigorate Families, as well as a strong Germany and Europe in the World (etc), Merkel notoriously succeeded to approach an Autonomous Majority of Votes for CDU/CSU, in the National Elections of September 2013, with about 40%.


=> Immediately afterwards, at the October 2013 EU Summit in Brussels, she made a landmark appearance, inspiring a Dynamic and autonomous European policy, particularly on Digital High-Tech, artfuly associated to the popular then issues of the need to Protect Private and Personal Data, Internet Freedoms, etc., (in the middle of the Snowden affair revelations about NSA Mass Spying from the USA, etc), linking EU Economic development and innovation, (including also modernisation of Industry by Information/Communication Technologies and automatisation), with Topical concerns of EU Citizens in their everyday Lives. She appeared to have reached her Geo-Political apogee...


However, overnight, during the counting of full electoral results, ChristianDemocrats' leadership was unexpectedly curtailed with - 4 MPs less than an Autonomous Majority, pushing again towards another CoHabitation in the next Government, (even in the absence of Liberals from the Bundestag: Comp. Supra).


Certainly, there are even Recent Examples, Worldwide, of some Governments which managed to rule Autonomously their country for several Years even with the Addition of just 4 Independent MPs, as, f.ex., in Australia, etc.


But, in Germany, after an interesting and unprecedented 1st Attempt to form a Christiandemocrat-"Green" Government, (which could break New Ground if it was focused also on crucial topical issues of modern BioEthics, etc, : Comp. "Eurofora"s relevant NewsReports, already since 2009, but mainly from the 2010 CDU and Greens' Summits at nearby Karlsruhe and Freiburg, as well as from Pope Emerite Benedict's 2011 landmark Speech at the Bundestag, followed by his visit also to Freiburg and relevant Statements of Vatican's Press Director Frederico Lombardi to "Eurofora", plus Winfried Kretschmann's Replies to "Eurofora"s Questions on 2010 and 2011, etc), that was undermined by some and hindered, possibly also because it might have been Precosious, practicaly resulting into a kind of "RDV" given for further, fresh consideration around 2017, Merkel, (despite the Edaty Scandal on the pederastic habits of SPD's Anti-Rightist Mediatic Star), was obliged to Return Back to a "Gro-Ko" with the Socialists again.

On December 2013 EU Summit in Brussels, the Internet, NSA, Snowden and Private/Personal Data (etc) issues are practically Forgotten, (See, f.ex., French President Hollande's reply to a relevant "Eurofora"s Question there).

On the Contrary, since November 2013, the Ukranian Conflict starts to emerge, doubled with Criticism of Russia, etc. Vainly Merkel anounces (during her Press Conference in Brussels : Comp. "Eurofora"s NewsReports from the spot) her intention to meet soon with all relevant Top Politicians in order to seek a mutually positive solution, including, f.ex., on the EU - Russia Trade relations, (which might unfold into a Portugal - Vladivoctoc large Trade Area, according to some Austrian, Finnish, a.o. Officials). Instead of that, onn January 2014, an unprecedented incident, at an International Swiss Hotspot, obliges her to walk with Crutches, (some collegues obviously suspecting an eventual sly aggression), and on February 2014, during a Paris' Franco-German Summit, a Bloody Ukranian Division and Civil War-like clash Starts, (particularly after the Non-elucidated yet Killings by strange "Snipers" at Kiev, and the subsequent Tank/Air Bombing attacks against Autonomists at Donetsk/Luhansk Regions, making a dramatically Growing number of Civilian Victims), seriously affecting Europe's Values, Peace, Unity and even Economy, (amidst the infamous ..."F..k the EU !" Phone calls of US under-Secretary of State Mrs Nuland, etc).


Last, but not least, later-on, during CDU's Annual Summit in Berlin towards the End of 2014, Chancelor Merkel reveals her Anger for Socialists' controversial move to follow the "Linke" (Left) at a Regional Länder coalition, even as Minor Partner, (See relevant "Eurofora"s NewReport at: ...).

=> All this, might explain what followed, shortly Afterwards :

- Intead of being cornered always in an obligatory cohabitation with an unfaithfull SPD, suiddenly, Merkel's CDU policy starts to practically provoke the emergence of various Other, New or Old Political Actors, at the Right side of Germany's Political Spectrum, who grow Fast, and become (at least theoratically (and/or "Technicalluy") possible coalition partners able to support anOther Majority, practically Ending CDU's "isolation" among the center-Right:

Thus, f.ex., FDP's Liberals, according to the latest, March 2016 partial Regional Elections' results, are comming back to the main Political Game. A new "Alternative for Germany" (less focused on €uro than in the Past, and more concerned about Identity, Security and Integration, etc) marks unprecedented results, (added also to various independent a.o. players). "Greens" stand firm, at least in certain Key Regions, (such as the nearby Baden-Wurttemberg Lânder, etc), while, on the contrary, SPD often Falls Down to levels making the continuation of some cohabitations of the Past, practically Impossible, from now on, (f.ex. in BW, Sachsen, etc).

In consequence, ChristianDemocrats' technically possible partners appear to suddenly Multiply, (particularly towards the Right side of the Political spectrum), so that Merkel could have much More possible Choices to consider in view of Next Year's 2017 National Elections than in the Past.

F.ex. :

- FDP's Liberals seem to return back into the mainstream Political Game, almost everywhere, and could be useful Partners anew for ChristianDemocrats.

- SPD's eratic movements, (f.ex. Falling too low in some Regions, but strong in others, obviously make another Gro-Ko more Difficult than in the Past, but not always impossible.

- "Greens" are strengthened mainly at nearby Baden-Wurttemberg, where Winfried Kretschmann can have a large Majority together with CDU's Guido Wolf, (but no more with the Socialists, who fell too low for that). Such a move, (possibly driven by New, Renewable Energy Technologies and respect of Nature, including Human BioEthics, (Comp. Supra), could also be in relative Harmony with the neighbouring Strasbourg's new Big East Region's President, experienced former Minister Philippe Richert's recent Election, which was obtained, for the 1st time, also with a small but crucial contribution by "Green" politician Sandrine Belier, former MEP (See: http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/franceregionelelectionsrepublicanswithgreensorfnrightistsforstrasbourg.html).

+ New political Party "Alternative for Germany", (AfG - Rightists), obviously wins a lot of more Votes, almost everywhere, while its leaders reportedly don't exclude eventual cooperations with the CDU/CSU, technicaly possible, (See relevant Electoral Results).
In this regard, (as it happened, already, also for an eventual CDU - Greens Coalition at BW, etc), verbal denials from one or another side cannot resist to political realities, neither to the Democratically expressed will of the German People.


=> Moreover, it's interesting to note the unexpected and unprecedented Fact that, if Merkel wished so, after the latest Regional Elections in 3 Key Länder, her Christiandemocrats could, in theory, be the Leaders of Majority Coalitions at the Right side of the Political Spectrum,, together with the "Alternative" and the Liberals, in ALL cases :


- Not only in Saxony-Anhalt, with almost 30% CDU and 25% AfD and 4% FDP, (i.e. an absolute Majority of some 59% in overall), but also in Rheinland-Palatinate, with about 32% CDU, 13% AfD and 6,5% FDP, (i.e. a Total of more than 51%), and even in Baden-Wurttemberg with 27% CDU 15,1% AfD and 8,5% FDP, (i.e. beyond 50,5%).


In terms of Elected Representatives, this could give absolute Majorities of 77 Seats against 66 in Baden-Wurttemberg, 56 Seats against 45 in Rheinland-Palatinate, and 54 against 33 in Saxony-Anhalt.


Even if all that is, at least for the Time being, rather a pure Mathematical possibility and nothing more, however, it's also a Fact that becoming theoreticaly able to Lead 3 new Absolute Majorities of 50,5%, 51% and 59% of Votes, (and much More in the number of Elected Representatives : Comp. Supra), in all Three Länder where the latest Regional Elections took place, is not really a mark of a so-called "Setback", contrary to what some critics claim, but rather a mark of a new, unprecedented Strength of the Right side of the Political Spectrum among German People.


Isn't it, with a Total of 187 Seats of Elected Representatives for the Right, against only 144 for the Left, in those three key German States ?...



(../..)
 

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("DraftNews", as already send to "EuroFora"s Subscribers/Donors, earlier. A more accurate, full Final Version might be Published asap).


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 sarko_merkel_mieux

The official presentation of a "Program" respecting People's choices voted in the June 7, 2009 EU Elections, to be debated in EU Council and EU Parliament during its 1st Session on July in Strasbourg, is the No 1 Priority, according to Democratic principles, for the Franco-German axis, said the main winners at the ballot box, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angie Merkel.

They stressed  that the New EU Commission's President must have a "Program" in favor of an EU which "protects" its Citizens, regulates financial markets and aims at a "Political" Europe" : a wording they have used as incompatible with Turkey's controversial EU bid.

They also declared ready for a "political" endorsment of "Mr. Barroso's candidacy" in June's EU Council, considering that an official decision would have to be made after EU Parliament's debates and votes, possibly from next month (July), with the legally necessary final acceptance shortly after Lisbon Treaty's entry into force, hoped for September or October.


- "A Program, and Mr. Barroso" : This resumes, in substance, the anouncements made by Sarkozy and Merkel, on the question of current EU Commission's President, Barroso's declared wish to succeed to himself for a second mandate, to be extended during the following 5 years.

 In their 1st meeting after EU Elections, they observed that "the Franco-German axis counted in European Elections' campaign... But, we both keep a realistic view : We saw the number of those who abstained, and we must absolutely give them an answer. We also see the disilusionment of an important number of Europeans vis a vis Europe, and we are aware of the responsibilities we have".

sarko

 - The "Duty" of the new EU Commission's President, after June 7, 2009 EU Elections' result, "is to act for a Europe which protects the Europeans, to commit himself into working for a better Regulation of Financial transactions, ... and to have a Political will for Europe", underlined Sarkozy.

Therefore, "we have asked M. Barroso... to clarify, to officialy present the intentions he has", he anounced.

- "We want to speak also about the Programme", explained Merkel.

- "It's important that for the next EU Parliament's mandate (2009-2014) we take the right Decisions for Europe.  Obviously on Persons, but mainly Decisions on Issues", she stressed.

- "It's not simply a question of a Person, it's also a question of a Programme". We are "really asking Mr. Barroso to commit himself on a Program, and on Principles, on Values", Sarkozy added.

EU President-in-office, Czech Prime Minister Jan Fischer, accepted the Franco-German stance :

- "Barroso must present his Programme. The Czech Presidency agrees with that", Fischer reportedly said later, after meeting Sarkozy.

But Press reports from Brussels claimed that Barroso had preferred to be officially appointed by EU Council since June, (i.e. next week), "because this was implied by the current Treaty of Nice, according to him", and considered any delay until the possible ratification of the new, Lisbon Treaty on September/October, as "undemocratic".

- "At any case, independently of what Germany and France ask, it's also EU Parliament's wish". "We shall propose Mr Barroso's candidacy... But even in the framework of Nice Treaty, EU Parliament has to be associated in this Decision", the French President observed.

If this is correctly done, then "we support Mr. Barroso's candidature", and "if the (EU) Parliament agrees, we might ratify this decision since July", (i.e. next month), they both said.

smerkem_400

- "France and Germany support Baroso's candidacy, But we want to speak also on the Program. We believe that this Program should be established in close cooperation with EU Parliament, and that's why we have followed an appropriate way", said Merkel.  - If EU Parliament wants, this election can take place on July,  but this must be done in full agreement.

- "We shall support Mr. Barroso's candidacy, without doubt", said Sarkozy. "But we have asked from Mr. Barroso, as I told him yesterday, to put into detail.. his intentions, at the eve of his 2nd mandate, if the situation avails itself.


    France and Germany "don't want to take an Official Legal Decision by writting" during "the next (EU) Council" (on June 18-19), declared Sarkozy.  Because they prefer, at this stage, only "a Political decision" on June, "so that we (EU Council) can work together with EU Parliament", which starts to meet only Next Month, since July in Srasbourg, "leaving a Legal decision by writting for later".

    - "If the Conditions are fuillfiled in EU Parliament, we (EU Council) are ready to give the agreement and make it offficial", said Merkel

    - "But, now we are working in the base of Nice Treaty. If tommorow we want to work in the spirit of Lisbon Treaty, we have to find a proper way", she added.

    - "Of course it's Legally complicated, because we are going to make a Political proposal to the forthcoming Council, for an EU Commission's President, on the basis of Nice Treaty : So, we (EU Council) will not appoint the Commissioners. Only the President.  If EU Parliament agrees, it could endorse this position on July", explained Sarkozy.

    But, on Autumn, "if Ireland ratifies Lisbon Treaty, there will be, at any case, a 2nd Decision, to appoint the Commission's President, this time on the basis of Lisbon treaty, and then, we, the EU Member States, would have to appoint (also) the EU Commissioners", he added.

    As for the precise Timing :  - "Everything is suspended until the Irish vote... Now, we must all make everything possible to help Ireland to say "Yes"" to Lisbon Treaty... The Irish Referendum, ..will take place either on September or on October. It's a Question which depends on the Irish. And,  then, we shall have the Choice of the Candidates for the permanent Institutions of Europe".

    However, "if Ireland says No, we, French and Germans, have to assume our responsibilities, and we'll do so", he concluded.

    But British and Swedish governments were reportedly eager to have a final EU Council decision on Barroso since this month, on June's European Council. While the other EU Member Countries are divided, several of them preferring to wait until EU Parliament pronounces itself, on July, and/or until Lisbon Treaty might be ratified by Ireland at the beginning of the Autumn. Barroso's current mandate ends on November.

    There are also various, contradictory and/or unpredictable reactions inside EU Parliament vis a vis Barroso's wish to continue a 2nd mandate, because many MEPs are openly or secretly opposed, reluctant, or hesitating.

    In the biggest EU Countries, as France and Germany, EU Citizens voted on June 2009 EU Elections for a renovated, non-technocratic but Political Europe which cares for its Citizens, with an Identity, Values and Borders, declared incompatible with Turkey's controversial EU bid, by mainstream, pro-European Governing Parties. Similar choices were also supported in several other small or medium EU Countries.

    On the contrary, whenever, in other Countries, Governing and other mainstream Parties didn't make these choices or eluded them, EU Citizens massively voted for euro-Sceptics whenever they were the only ones to to promise anti-bureacratic change and oppose Turkey's demand to enter into the EU, (f.ex. in the UK, Netherlands, etc).

    It's seems to be an Open Question whether Sarkozy and Merkel's conditions will be really accepted by Barroso, who was appointed on 2004 in a different political context, (with Socialist Prime Ministers in Germany, France, etc), had rejected in the Past the idea of EU becoming "equal to the USA" as "ridiculous", and pushed for Turkey's contoversial EU bid, trying to "soften" or contain the changes desired by the People who voted for Merkel and Sarkozy with another policy vis a vis Turkey on 2005 in Germany and on 2007 in France, as they did all over Europe on 2009.

    In addition to many EPP Governments, it's 3 remaining Socialist Prime Ministers : Gordon Brown in the UK, Zapatero in Spain, and Socrates in Prortugal, who support Barroso, as well as Liberal Swedish Prime Minister Reinfeldt. But their Parties lost the June 2009 EU Elections.

    Questioned whether there was still "Time" for "other" possible "Candidates", Sarkozy and Merkel did not deny, nor made any comment on that, but simply said that "it's not for us to make publicity for any candidates. We anounced our choice ("A Program, and Mr. Barroso"). But we respect any other candidate".

    Among various other names cited are former Belgian Prime Minister Verhofstadt, former UNO's Human Rights Commissioner Mary Robinson of Ireland, Italian former EU Commission's vice-President Monti, etc. Meanwhile, Luxembourg's PM Juncker, (who had been unanimously accepted by EU Council for EU Commission's Presidency on 2004, but refused), announced his intention to resign from "EuroGroup"'s Chair. Thus, he might be available for another Top EU job.

    As "EuroFora"'s "opinion" said (See publication dated 9/6/09) : - "If the current candidates (i.e. Barroso, etc) to the Top EU jobs promise and guarantee to respect People's democratic choices, then, it's OK".

"Otherwise, Europe must find new candidates, really motivated and able to implement these democratic choices of the People."

    Because, "in Democracy, the forthcoming choices for EU's Top Jobs,...should be made according to EU Citizens' Votes in June 7, 2009 European Elections, and main EU Governments' strategic policies".
        

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