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Home arrow newsitems arrow After German Regional Elections: Merkel can be Wiser than some think..

After German Regional Elections: Merkel can be Wiser than some think..

Written by ACM
Monday, 14 March 2016

*Strasbourg/Angelo Marcopolo/- The latest Results in 3 Strategic German Länder, key for next year's (2017) National Elections, (which will follow in Berlin shortly after Paris' own Presidential and Parliamentary votes, both obviously crucial for Europe), heavily commented throughout EU and Worldwide, may be, in fact, very much Differend from what many believe at first sight :

- Instead of just threatening to reduce Chancelor Angie Merkel chances for the 2017 National Elections, as it's often claimed, on the contrary, these and other relevant recent developments, may considerably extend further her possibilities for various eventual political Majority coalitions and space for manouvers, advancing well beyond what used to be the case in the Past.

Indeed, for more than a Decade now, the Governing ChristianDemocrats of Merkel were obliged to form successive Coalitions mainly with SocialDemocrats and sometimes with Liberals, until Obama's USA pushed the FDP out of the Bundestag on 2013, because of its alleged Refusal of a Military Intervention in Syria, (Comp., f.ex., CNN-Europe1 Invitation of "Eurofora" in Paris for a Media debate on German National Elections: ....).

  Back on 2013, after a landmark campaign launched on August at Ludwigshafen, (Comp. "Eurofora"s NewsReport from the spot, at ....) with Popular issues such as against "Multi-Kulti", but for Integration, support to revigorate Families, as well as a strong Germany and Europe in the World (etc), Merkel notoriously succeeded to approach an Autonomous Majority of Votes for CDU/CSU, in the National Elections of September 2013, with about 40%.

=> Immediately afterwards, at the October 2013 EU Summit in Brussels, she made a landmark appearance, inspiring a Dynamic and autonomous European policy, particularly on Digital High-Tech, artfuly associated to the popular then issues of the need to Protect Private and Personal Data, Internet Freedoms, etc., (in the middle of the Snowden affair revelations about NSA Mass Spying from the USA, etc), linking EU Economic development and innovation, (including also modernisation of Industry by Information/Communication Technologies and automatisation), with Topical concerns of EU Citizens in their everyday Lives. She appeared to have reached her Geo-Political apogee...

However, overnight, during the counting of full electoral results, ChristianDemocrats' leadership was unexpectedly curtailed with - 4 MPs less than an Autonomous Majority, pushing again towards another CoHabitation in the next Government, (even in the absence of Liberals from the Bundestag: Comp. Supra).

Certainly, there are even Recent Examples, Worldwide, of some Governments which managed to rule Autonomously their country for several Years even with the Addition of just 4 Independent MPs, as, f.ex., in Australia, etc.

But, in Germany, after an interesting and unprecedented 1st Attempt to form a Christiandemocrat-"Green" Government, (which could break New Ground if it was focused also on crucial topical issues of modern BioEthics, etc, : Comp. "Eurofora"s relevant NewsReports, already since 2009, but mainly from the 2010 CDU and Greens' Summits at nearby Karlsruhe and Freiburg, as well as from Pope Emerite Benedict's 2011 landmark Speech at the Bundestag, followed by his visit also to Freiburg and relevant Statements of Vatican's Press Director Frederico Lombardi to "Eurofora", plus Winfried Kretschmann's Replies to "Eurofora"s Questions on 2010 and 2011, etc), that was undermined by some and hindered, possibly also because it might have been Precosious, practicaly resulting into a kind of "RDV" given for further, fresh consideration around 2017, Merkel, (despite the Edaty Scandal on the pederastic habits of SPD's Anti-Rightist Mediatic Star), was obliged to Return Back to a "Gro-Ko" with the Socialists again.

On December 2013 EU Summit in Brussels, the Internet, NSA, Snowden and Private/Personal Data (etc) issues are practically Forgotten, (See, f.ex., French President Hollande's reply to a relevant "Eurofora"s Question there).

On the Contrary, since November 2013, the Ukranian Conflict starts to emerge, doubled with Criticism of Russia, etc. Vainly Merkel anounces (during her Press Conference in Brussels : Comp. "Eurofora"s NewsReports from the spot) her intention to meet soon with all relevant Top Politicians in order to seek a mutually positive solution, including, f.ex., on the EU - Russia Trade relations, (which might unfold into a Portugal - Vladivoctoc large Trade Area, according to some Austrian, Finnish, a.o. Officials). Instead of that, onn January 2014, an unprecedented incident, at an International Swiss Hotspot, obliges her to walk with Crutches, (some collegues obviously suspecting an eventual sly aggression), and on February 2014, during a Paris' Franco-German Summit, a Bloody Ukranian Division and Civil War-like clash Starts, (particularly after the Non-elucidated yet Killings by strange "Snipers" at Kiev, and the subsequent Tank/Air Bombing attacks against Autonomists at Donetsk/Luhansk Regions, making a dramatically Growing number of Civilian Victims), seriously affecting Europe's Values, Peace, Unity and even Economy, (amidst the infamous ..."F..k the EU !" Phone calls of US under-Secretary of State Mrs Nuland, etc).

Last, but not least, later-on, during CDU's Annual Summit in Berlin towards the End of 2014, Chancelor Merkel reveals her Anger for Socialists' controversial move to follow the "Linke" (Left) at a Regional Länder coalition, even as Minor Partner, (See relevant "Eurofora"s NewReport at: ...).

=> All this, might explain what followed, shortly Afterwards :

- Intead of being cornered always in an obligatory cohabitation with an unfaithfull SPD, suiddenly, Merkel's CDU policy starts to practically provoke the emergence of various Other, New or Old Political Actors, at the Right side of Germany's Political Spectrum, who grow Fast, and become (at least theoratically (and/or "Technicalluy") possible coalition partners able to support anOther Majority, practically Ending CDU's "isolation" among the center-Right:

Thus, f.ex., FDP's Liberals, according to the latest, March 2016 partial Regional Elections' results, are comming back to the main Political Game. A new "Alternative for Germany" (less focused on €uro than in the Past, and more concerned about Identity, Security and Integration, etc) marks unprecedented results, (added also to various independent a.o. players). "Greens" stand firm, at least in certain Key Regions, (such as the nearby Baden-Wurttemberg Lânder, etc), while, on the contrary, SPD often Falls Down to levels making the continuation of some cohabitations of the Past, practically Impossible, from now on, (f.ex. in BW, Sachsen, etc).

In consequence, ChristianDemocrats' technically possible partners appear to suddenly Multiply, (particularly towards the Right side of the Political spectrum), so that Merkel could have much More possible Choices to consider in view of Next Year's 2017 National Elections than in the Past.

F.ex. :

- FDP's Liberals seem to return back into the mainstream Political Game, almost everywhere, and could be useful Partners anew for ChristianDemocrats.

- SPD's eratic movements, (f.ex. Falling too low in some Regions, but strong in others, obviously make another Gro-Ko more Difficult than in the Past, but not always impossible.

- "Greens" are strengthened mainly at nearby Baden-Wurttemberg, where Winfried Kretschmann can have a large Majority together with CDU's Guido Wolf, (but no more with the Socialists, who fell too low for that). Such a move, (possibly driven by New, Renewable Energy Technologies and respect of Nature, including Human BioEthics, (Comp. Supra), could also be in relative Harmony with the neighbouring Strasbourg's new Big East Region's President, experienced former Minister Philippe Richert's recent Election, which was obtained, for the 1st time, also with a small but crucial contribution by "Green" politician Sandrine Belier, former MEP (See: http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/franceregionelelectionsrepublicanswithgreensorfnrightistsforstrasbourg.html).

+ New political Party "Alternative for Germany", (AfG - Rightists), obviously wins a lot of more Votes, almost everywhere, while its leaders reportedly don't exclude eventual cooperations with the CDU/CSU, technicaly possible, (See relevant Electoral Results).
In this regard, (as it happened, already, also for an eventual CDU - Greens Coalition at BW, etc), verbal denials from one or another side cannot resist to political realities, neither to the Democratically expressed will of the German People.

=> Moreover, it's interesting to note the unexpected and unprecedented Fact that, if Merkel wished so, after the latest Regional Elections in 3 Key Länder, her Christiandemocrats could, in theory, be the Leaders of Majority Coalitions at the Right side of the Political Spectrum,, together with the "Alternative" and the Liberals, in ALL cases :

- Not only in Saxony-Anhalt, with almost 30% CDU and 25% AfD and 4% FDP, (i.e. an absolute Majority of some 59% in overall), but also in Rheinland-Palatinate, with about 32% CDU, 13% AfD and 6,5% FDP, (i.e. a Total of more than 51%), and even in Baden-Wurttemberg with 27% CDU 15,1% AfD and 8,5% FDP, (i.e. beyond 50,5%).

In terms of Elected Representatives, this could give absolute Majorities of 77 Seats against 66 in Baden-Wurttemberg, 56 Seats against 45 in Rheinland-Palatinate, and 54 against 33 in Saxony-Anhalt.

Even if all that is, at least for the Time being, rather a pure Mathematical possibility and nothing more, however, it's also a Fact that becoming theoreticaly able to Lead 3 new Absolute Majorities of 50,5%, 51% and 59% of Votes, (and much More in the number of Elected Representatives : Comp. Supra), in all Three Länder where the latest Regional Elections took place, is not really a mark of a so-called "Setback", contrary to what some critics claim, but rather a mark of a new, unprecedented Strength of the Right side of the Political Spectrum among German People.

Isn't it, with a Total of 187 Seats of Elected Representatives for the Right, against only 144 for the Left, in those three key German States ?...




("DraftNews", as already send to "EuroFora"s Subscribers/Donors, earlier. A more accurate, full Final Version might be Published asap).


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Speaking exclusively to "EuroFora", the New EU Parliament's President, former Polish Prime Minister, ChristianDemocrat/EPP MEP Jerzy Busek, welcomed proposals by EuroFora about innovative ways for EU Citizens to attend EU debates before important final decisions which affect people's lives.

- "We (EU Parliament) must be transparent", Buzek stressed from the outset.  "We must have clear answers also for delicate questions. If we don't touch a problem, you must know why, and when shall we decide in the nearest future".. "Because "we (EU) must think about Europeans, first of all : They don't understand well what is going on in the EU. So, it's our duty to inform them, to make discussions here more interesting".

"EuroFora" congratulated President Buzek for the anouncement he made, from the 1st day of his election in Strasbourg (on Tuesday, 14 July 2009), on his intention to make  transparent debates, exchanges of views, etc. before the final adoption of decisions in EU Parliament's Plenary, when issues are evolving inside Committees, (See earlier publication).

And we reminded, in this regard, that "EuroFora" has been advocating a project for EU Citizens' active involvement in pluralist EU debates before important EU decisions, since more than a Decade : 1997-2007+

- "Thank you. We (EU Parliament), indeed, have exciting debates", Buzek replied. But, in practice, "without a possibility for our Citizens to see them, not even by the Press, the Radio or TV, etc., because it is in Committees", he regreted.

- "But, they (i.e. Media, Citizens, etc) might interact with you, with MEPs, etc, May be we can imagine something", "EuroFora" proposed.

- "Yes, (but) it needs, a quite new idea", Buzed observed.

- "Why not through some innovations ?", "EuroFora" suggested.

- "Innovation ? That's it. Fantastic  New Information Technologies !", Buzek realized.

- "Precisely, "EuroFora" has such a project, since more than a Decade (1997-2009), to use new technologies for public debates before major EU decisions are taken", we reminded.

- "If you have such proposals, please come to us, come to us. We must" do something, agreed the new EU Parliamen's President.


    This fits with Buzek's main stance, expressed at EU Parliament's plenary earlier this week in Strasbourg, that the European Union must succeed to overcome a "Crisis of Trust" vis a vis EU Citizens. (See previous EuroFora publication).

    For that purpose, obviously information and debates are valuable, but purely instrumental, procedural means which can help focus on, and highlight a substantial content, attractive to EU Citizens, which needs to be determined by other, political, and not mediatic factors.  

    Buzek spoke about the urgent need to overcome the Global Economic Crisis,  the struggle for Human and Civic Rights, Democracy, etc., the Eastern Partnership, links with Russia, strategic partnership with USA and emerging countries, etc.

    But he also used (while speaking both to "EuroFora" and other Media) the expression : "The Europeans", for EU Citizens. This points right towards what several important EU leaders (including French President Sarkozy, German Chancellor Merkel, etc) have started to highlight particularly during the recent years : That there is a vital need, and an historic opportunity, for the development of a European Conscience, to stimulate e renaissance of a European Identity able to attract Popular support, for the EU to become a strong player in a Multopolar World : In other words, the revitalisation of a project for a "Political Europe".

    By a coincidence, this was indirectly but surely reminded, earlier in Strasbourg, by another ... Busek (this time with a "s") : 


    Speaking to more than 650 participants from CoE's member countries, at the conclusion of the 2009 Summer University of its Political Schools, Erhard Busek, (with an "s"), former vice-Chancellor of Austria and EU Coordinator for South-Eastern Europe, pointed at the current need to revitalize Europe's "Identity", forged by Greek philosophy and Roman Law, Christian values and Enlightment's ideas, etc. through the ages.     

- "We have almost the same name with Jerzy Buzek (EU Parliament's new President, who is a former Polish Prime Minister), because both our Families come ...from  the same village, located at the Heart of Europe, which was often shared between Poland, Germany and the Czech Republic. But my family emmigrated a long time ago to Austria, while Jerzy Buzek's family remained in Poland", explained f. vice-Chancellor Erhard Busek to "EuroFora".   

 An astonishingly concrete and simple example of European Integration from the grassroots : Starting by EU Citizens, i.e. those "Europeans", that EU Parliament's new President, Jerzy Buzek (this time with a "z"), wants to bring alongside MEP's decision-making proces, (according to "EuroFora"'s main idea : Comp. supra)...



2009 EU Elections were won by Parties against Technocracy and Turkey's controversial EU bid, while the 1999-2004 Majority Abstention trend decelerated. What should be done in 2009-2014 ?


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