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Home arrow newsitems arrow Germany : Towards a "New GRO-KO" ?!...

Germany : Towards a "New GRO-KO" ?!...

Автор ACM
Понедельник, 19 Февраль 2018
new_groko_patchwork_eurofora_400_01 

*Strasbourg/Angelo Marcopolo/- After 2 "GroKo" - Big Coalition Governments with an obliged CoHabitation of ChristianDemocrats/EPP and Socialists, the German People might, perhaps, be Ready also for a 3rd "GroKo" Governemental Coalition, during the Period of 2018-2021, But... of anOther, UnExpected, even if rather Logical, entirely New Political Color ?

The Latest Polls raise the Question de facto : For the 1st Time in History, the "Socialist" Party, with Only 15,5% of the Intentions of Vote,  Falls Down even Lower than the New, Rightist "Alternative" Party (AfD), which Grows, on the Contrary, Becoming the 2nd Biggest Party Nationwide, with 16% Today.


According to that "INSA" Poll for "BILD-Zeitung", Follow the "Greens" with 13%, the Left with 11%, and the Liberals with 9%.


The ChristianDemocrats/EPP of Chancellor Angie Merkel's CDU/CSU, unlike SPD's collapse, they Grow Up to 32%.


------------------------------------


In fact, such a Political Development did Not really came Suddenly, out of the blue : Already, several Previous Polls had Recently Revealed a Trend for Socialists to be Falling Down, at the same time that Rightists were Growing, while ChristianDemocrats remained Stable or even ameliorated, more or less, their position.


F.ex., among others  :


 - Already, as early as since January 29, the SPD had Fallen to 18%, while the AfD had Grown up to 14%, (INSA Poll).


- But it's mainly Since February 12, that Socialists Fell Dangerously Down to Only 16,5%, very Near to the Rightists, which had Grown up to 15%, i.e. with a Tiny Difference of just 1,5%... (INSA/BILD).


- This had been Confirmed, and Extended even Further, also by an INFRATEST-DIMAP Poll, Later on February 15, where  Socialists had Fallen even Lower, Down to 16%, while the Rightists had Grown up to 15%, i.e. with an even Smaller Difference of Only 1%.

=> It Seems that Martin Schultz's UnExpected Departure, Both from the SPD's Party Presidency and from a probable and logical Foreign Ministerial position in a probable "Gro-Ko" Government, has considerably Accelerated an UnPrecedented Downward Trend for the Socialists, (as well as a Growing Trend for the "Alternative" AfD Party).


Schulz, a Twice Elected former EU Parliament's President, and one among the Longest-Serving former MEPs (1993-2017), Naturally was a Normal Choice for the Mission of a New Foreign Minister at another "GroKo" Cohabitation Government of ChristianDemocrats and Socialists, where his Experience and Contacts at a Level of Heads of State/Government and Leaders of European, PanEuropean and International Organisations, could certainly be Useful Both for Germany and all Europe.


But this was Undemined by a Sudden, UnPrecedented Row, Triggered by a Personal Attack with Harsh Words in Public, mainly by the Out-Going MFA, Sigmar Gabriel, (a Short-lived Foreign Minister, where he had just Succeeded to Steinmeier's New Job as Germany's President), former SPD's Head, and apparently close to a Turkish-origin Socialist that he had Curiously Chosen himself for Minister of ..."Integration", (inevitably Fuelling AfD Rightists' Chances among the German People), as it was Noted also by many others, including, f.ex., an "Eurofora"s fan in our Forum (at: http://www.eurofora.net/forum/index.php/topic,871.0.html), and a relevant, locacious Photo published, immediately Afterwards, by "Welt" mainstream Newspaper, (etc).

martin_schulz_pointing_at_the_snakes_pit..._welt_revu_400

Sigmar Gabriel reportedly Opened Fire 1st, by Accusing Schulz in Public to Betray his Promises and even by citting his Daughter criticizing "that guy who has Hair on his Face (sic !)"... Schulz prefered to take a Dignified stance, and Announced his Withrawal Both from that Foreign Ministry contest and from SPD Party's Leadership, claiming that this was done in order to Help the Party's Members Endorse by Voting the latest "GroKo" Deal. But his Sister, in a Press Interview which went Viral at all Medias, Fired Back by slaming most of SPD's current Top Bureaucracy in Berlin as a ... "Snake-Pit" (sic !). 

 

schulzs_sister_fires_back_at_spd_bureaucracy__snakepit_welt__eurofora_400 

 bild_on_schulzs_sister_firing_back_at_snakepit_in_spd_top_bild__eurofora_400

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Things became Worse, also at a Citizens'-wide level, when Newspaper "BILD" Revealed, later this Evening, the UnPrecedented Scandal of a ...DOG having been Recently Registered and Officialy "Welcomed" as a full Member of the current "Socialist" Party, precisely when a Crucial Vote on extending, or not, the previous "GroKo" has just Started, among All Members of a Divided and Ailing SPD, sharply Falling in Polls particularly after Schulz's unexpected and strange Departure, (Comp. Supra). SPD's Officials, shortly Afterwards, Declared that the registered Dog (a Skiny Female named "Lima"), will be Excluded from Voting on that "Gro-Ko", but the Story went, meanwhile, Viral at the World Wide Web (UPDATED)...

dog_lima_registered_as_spd_member_bild__eurofora_400

newspaper_bild_on_dog_lima_as_psd_member__manipulations_bildeurofora_screenshot_400 

------------------------------------


=> An Obvious Result is that, in Addition to well Known Difficulties and/or UnCertainties about the Final Outcome of a still On-Going Massive Consultation of all SPD's Members on a Recent Draft Deal between ChristianDemocrats and Socialists, due to Conclude on March 2, Now, it's even the Possibility and/or Legitimacy of the Socialists to eventually participate at another "Gro-Ko" Government with the ChristianDemocrats/EPP which is at Risk :  


Since they do Not Represent, no more, all Together, but Only 47,5% of the Votes, i.e. they have practically Lost the Majority of the People, (as also mainstream "FAZ" Newspaper observes Today) !


+ It's true, however, that, at least until now, the AfD's "Alternative", with 16%, has Not Yet a clear Majority, even if it was Added to a ChristianDemocrat/CDU-CSU's 32%, according to the Latest Poll, (Comp. Supra), since they still Miss the point (with 48% all) just for 2%...


>>> Nevertheless, it's also a Fact, that, f.ex., the New ChristianDemocrat/EPP Party's Secretary Generale designate, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, has just Stressed, for the 1st Time, also Today, (i.e. the Same Day that the above-mentioned Latest Poll revealed that AfD's Rightists had just Bypassed SPD's Socialists : Comp. Supra), that: - "We can No Longer Ignore the AfD", as mainstream Medias (f.ex. "Die Welt", etc) noted, adding a call also for relevant "Discussions with the Citizens".


+ Moreover, by a Coincidence, it's also just a Few Days ago, that AfD's vice-President, and former MEP at EU Parliament in Strasbourg, Beatrix von Storch, who, speaking to Mainstream Newspaper "Welt", just After Observing the Fact that - "Currently, the GroKo (with the Socialists) has No more a Majority", (as that Poll of February 15 had already shown : Comp. Supra), she Added :


- But, "in Principle ("in Theory"), We have, Together with the CDU (ChristianDemocrats), the FDP (Liberals), and the AfD (Conservatives/Rightists), a Bourgeois-Liberal Majority (i.e. of the Right) in this Country".


- The only thing she regretted, in this regard, is that, in her view, currently "the CDU (ChristianDemocrats/EPP) is Too much at the Left", as she felt until recently.


>>> Indeed, it's an UnDeniable Fact that, Already since the Latest Elections of September 2017, the German People have clearly Voted for an Absolute Majority located at the Right side of the political spectrum, giving a Crystal-clear 56 % to the ChristianDemocrats (CDU/CSU), Rightists/Conservatives (AfD), and Liberals (FDP), taken Together, as "Eurofora" had already Observed then, (See: http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/2017germanelectionresults.html, etc).


+ And Now (on 19 February 2018), this has been Confirmed and even Extended Further, with the Latest Poll just publishd Today, (Comp. Supra), since the Right side of the political spectrum, taken all Together (CDU/CSU, FDP and AfD), holds a Majority of 57 % in the Intentions of Vote, (i.e. +1% More than what it was already since September 2017).


This is even + 3% More than what might, eventually, get Today a "Jamaica" formula, with CDU/CSU, Liberals and "Greens" (just 54 %), who already have Even notoriously Failed to Agree, soon after the Latest Elections of 9/2017.


-----------------------------------


++ In Addition, the most Recent Political Developments elsewhere in Europe, also Go in a Similar Direction to that which has Already been shown by the Historic Example of CDU's Founder, former Chancellor Adenauer, who had Leaded 2 or 3 National Governments, with his ChristianDemocrat Party being Allied to the Rightist/Conservative ("Deutsche") Party of his era, (already, as Early as since 1949-1961) :


- Indeed, as it is well known, the recent Victory in Austria of the Young ChristianDemocrat/EPP Leader Sebastien Kurz, (Comp. Kurz's Statements to "Eurofora" in Brussels at: ..., etc) was notoriously followed by a New Coalition Government formed by his Center-Right Party together with the Rightists/Conservatives of the FPÖ Party, due to take over EU's rotating Chairmanship from July 2018.


- Meanwhile, anOther Recent (mid-2017) Governemental Coalition between a Mainstream ChristianDemocrat/EPP Party and a Rightist/Conservative Party, has just Started to Chair EU's Council from January 2018, under Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, (Leader of the "Citizens for a European Development" Center-Right Party), and the Rightist Party of "Patriots", (who have Accepted, however, a Pro-European Program).


- And CoE's PanEuropean Organisation for Human Rights, Democracy and Rule of Law, is already Chaired (from November 2017 up to May 2018 included) by Denmark, whose Center-Right Government works thanks to an Agreement with the Rightists/Conservatives (who have prefered Not to get any Ministerial post, but Support that Government through theis Votes at the National Parliament).


- Moreover, CoE is due to be Chaired, Later-on, also by Finland, which has just Concluded its OSCE's Chairmanship, and notoriously has a Coalition Government including the Rightists/Conservatives.


- The Czech Republic has Recently formed a New Government under Prime Minister Babis' Neo-Conservative Party, while even the atypical Conservative President Milos Zeman has just been re-Elected.


- And, to this List, might even be Added, Soon, also Italy, after the forthcoming Elections at the Beginning of March 2018, (etc)...


-----------------------------------


+++ Even inside the German Parties, relevant Viewpoints seem to Evolve :


- F.ex., immediately After "Eurofora"'s Publication on an eventual "Bahamas"' Coalition (CDU/CSU, Liberals + AfD's Rightists) in Germany, since the attempt to broker a "Jamaica" Coalition (CDU/CSU, Liberals + "Greens") had just Failed, mainly over Differences on Mass Asylum Seekers/irregular Migrants' Issues, last November 2017, (See : http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/germanyfromjamaicatobahamascoalition.html ), AfD's vice-President Beatrix von Storch emails us her "Bericht von Berlin" NewsLetter, on the 1st of December 2017, where she Resumes her Position on an eventual CDU/CSU-Liberals+ Coalition Government, by stressing from the outset that "it's not a question of Colors" (sic ! Comp. the "Bahamas" or "Jamaica" Flag Colors' Symbolism), "but of Content and Beliefs" : There she makes it Clear that, even if there still are certain "Contradictions in Fundamental Points" between ChristianDemocrats and Conservatives/Rightists, However, AfD's "Opposition" is "Not any Obstruction at all", since it would be Willing to "Support Concrete Measures" which would serve "Germany's National Interests", in case of a CDU/CSU-based Government in the foreseable Future.


Even among the Issues that she states for Differences :


- either it's rather a matter of Degree : as in the case of "Reverse", "Not Only Stop Islamization" ;


- or it's a matter of the Past : As in the Refusal of "any Further €uro-Rescue Aid", since, Nowadays, almost All formerly Aided €uro-Area Countries have already Concluded their Programs, while in the Particular case of Greece it Ends on August 2018 ;


- if it isn't something where some Agreements might, eventually, be found : As on "Direct Democracy", where even Mainstream New French President Macron seems to have some  a priori Interesting Ideas, while also Bundestag's New President Schäuble has stressed, Earlier in Stresbourg that any possible Advance in €uroArea's Integration must Develop closer Democratic Links to EU Citizens, and, Already, EU's Lisbon Treaty, (mainly Drafted by former French President Sarkozy and Chancellor Merkel since 2007-2010), provides for some, Untapped yet, Interesting Possibilities, such as, f.ex., a Better Development of its EU "Citizens' Initiative", and/or a "Regular Dialogue" between Citizens and EU Institutions, (Article 11), which has Not yet been really Used, (etc).


 - or, in reality, a "Fake" Opposition : As that which was supposed to be on "Same Sex Marriage", where, in Fact, more than 75% of CDU/CSU MPs (including Chancellor Angie Merkel) recently Voted "Against". => Significantly, this supposed "Difference" between AfD's Conservatives and CDU/CSU's ChristianDemocrats, was Earlier Noted by Von Stock in an Article Published, apparently, Before she became Aware of "Eurofora"s above mentioned Publication, (where We Analyze the Facts showing that Merkel's Acceptance of a Bundestag Vote on "SSM", back on July 2017, was apparently Motivated by the Need to Prevent a Center-LEFT, Hostile Coalition between Socialists, Liberals, Greens and the Left, precisely Triggered by that Pretext then, and Observe that More than 75% of CDU/CSU MPs Voted "Against", while the "AfD"s Conservatives/Rightists had Not yet Entereed in the Bundestag, then). Thus, Von Storch, significantly, did Not Repeat that Claim in her Subsequently E-Mailed NewsLetter, which was Obviously Written AFTER she had a real Chance to Read the above-mentioned "Eurofora"s relevant Publication, (Comp. Supra).


+ And a Similar Phenomenon is observed even concerning, on the Contrary, the Points in which ChristianDemocrats and Conservatives/Rightists might, Possibly, Agree, according to Von Storch : F.ex.,  in her Earlier relevant Publication to a Newspaper she Cited Only the case of an eventual "Prolongation of the Suspension of Family (lato sensu) ReUnification for ... those (Foreign Mass Asylum Seekers) who are entitled Only to a Subsidiary Protection", (i.e. Not Real Political Refugees, fleeing Personal persecution for their Political Ideas/Struggle, but rather what Sarkozy had called : "War Refugees", Massively Fleeing General Conditions provoked by War Destructions, etc., to the Detriment of All Inhabitants of an area). But, in her Subsequent E-mailed NewsLetter, she Significantly Omits any such Unique Reference Only to that Issue Alone, AFTER having a real Chance to Read "Eurofora"s relevant Publication, where were Cited not only 1, but also Many and Various Other Issues of Probable Agreements between ChristianDemocrats and Conservatives/Rightists Nowadays...


----------------------------


+ Meanwhile, Chancellor Angie Merkel earlier Surprized, during an Atypical, Original Conference with Young Children in Berlin, transmitted by Radio-TV on September 2017, Month of the Latest Elections in Germany, when she Revealed that her "Favorite Prime Minister" was ... "Norway's Erna Solberg", who has, notoriously, just Won also a anOther, 2nd Election in a row, as Leader of a Governemental Coalition of her ChristianDemocrat/EPP Center-Right Party together with that Scandinavian Country's Rightists !


++ And, Today, on February 2018, the New CDU's Secretary General designate, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, that Chancellor Merkel Helped to chose, has just reprotedly Declared, after the Latest Polls revealing that AfD's Conservatives/Rightists get a Bigger Popular Support than the Socialists, (Comp. Supra), that "We canNot Ignore AfD, No More", also proposing relevant "Discussions with Citizens"...


+++ Even AfD's vice-President, Beatrix von Storch, (who is one of the few Top AfD Politicians that does Not raise any PreCondition against Chancellor Angie Merkel, personally, as Others did), in an Interview published Today (19 February 2018) by Mainstream Newspaper "Die Welt", points at a "Growing Resistance inside the CDU", (during these Times of "GroKo" in CoHabitation with the Socialists), and Particularly at "its Base".


- While, on the Contrary, just Before the September 2017 Elections,
she  had Complained to "Eurofora" in EU Parliament that, in fact, it would be "Impossible" for AfD's Conservatives/Rightis MEPs to eventually Cooperate with ChristianDemocrats/PPE because "I have Tried", but -"They doN't even Talk to us !", as she had claimed then, (Comp., f.ex. at: http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/germanyfromjamaicatobahamascoalition.html).                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Chancellor Angie Merkel has already Proven, several times, that, if really needed, she is Able to Make sudden Big Political "U-Turns", (as she did, f.ex., on Energy Issues just After 2011's Fukushima incident, etc).


And she Obviously Likes to have someone Else at her Right, so that she would really look to be near the "Center", (her favorite "Mitte"), as she managed to do, after so many years, at last, with the emerging "AfD"s Rightists.  


=> In such a Context, when People saw the Experienced and always Popular German "BundesKanzlerin", (whose CDU Party skyrockets in Polls),  ...Wear her Famous Jacket in "GREEN" Color while Heading towards Negotiations for a "Jamaica" Coalition including the "Greens", But in ..."RED" when she Negotiated with the "Socialists" for a "GroKo", while she Recently started to Wear Nowadays a ..."BLUE" version, they inevitably Wonder :

 - Are all these (Symbolic but Timely) Facts, a pure "Coincidence"  ?


- Or, Perhaps, Not ?


You Never Know, with Politics...

 

 angie_merkel_jackets_succesive_colors_eurofora_patchwork_inclueds_also_original_photos_400

 

 

(../..)


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Sarkozy and Merkel : June 2009 solution to May 2005 "NO" ?

 - Will French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angie Merkel live up from June 2009 to their obvious Historic European mission to revitalize, and re-launch the "European Dream", after the series of 3 "NO" since May 2005 in France, the Netherlands and Ireland, by renewing, and changing the EU with fresh stimulus, big horizons, and values attractive for EU Citizens ?

Whatever views anyone might have, it's a Fact that, recently, EU's political spectrum didn't produce other more charismatic and popular EU leaders than Merkel and Sarkozy, starting from September 2005 and May 2007, respectively.

This trend was confirmed, in one way or another, both during the German EU presidency in 2007 (shared by Merkel with the SPD), and mainly during the French EU Presidency in 2008, (with Sarkozy "free" to move).


The positive 2009 EU Polls are a natural consequence :

- Both with 72% Sarkozy and Merkel are considered by EU Citizens to be "the most Influential" leaders in Europe, by far.

- They are the only EU political leaders to attract a Majority of "Positive" views by EU Citizens, (Merkel over 60%, Sarkozy over 50%, particularly in the continent).

- 60% of EU Citizens find the 2008 French EU Presidency "Good", (and the satisfaction grows up to 67,5% in continental Europe).

The Poll was made by "OpinionWay" in big EU countries as Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK, (with the only exception of France), from 26 to 28 May 2009.

sarkozy_merkel_polls_400

But the most important is that both Franco-German leaders seem willing to, at last, really start serious business on EU's indispensable renovation and Renaissance from 2009 : Year of crucial EU and German Elections.

Therefore, this time, the joint European move by Sarkozy and Merkel, which just published a common Franco-German Manifesto, aims to stimulate aspirations and action not only in their respective countries, but also in many other EU "partners", as they say.

Both on EU economy, social values and scientifico-technologic research, as well as on Turkey's controversial EU bid, obviously incompatible with a popular Political Europe, whose Citizens can find a collective Identity and popular Values, they have already started to magnetize various growing voices accross the European landscape :

"Today, more than ever, it' time for action", they stress from the outset.

Facing "an unprecedented Global financial and economic Crisis", "Europeans must get resolutely involved if they want for the World which is being built to meet their Values of Liberty, Solidarity and Justice".

"That's what we want" and "propose to our Partners" :

* "A strong Europe, able to protect us" :

- "We refuse a Bureaucratic EU, which mecanically applies burdensome rules and is afraid of change. We want a European Union which listens what Citizens have to say, which innovates, stimulates".

- "We want a strong and united EU in the World, while also respecting its Member States' Diversity", which "brings Courageous Replies to the Questions of our Times, ensuring our Prosperity :  

This implies to "favor Research and Innovation", "Economic Coordination", to "develop real Policies on Immigrationn, Energy, Defence, and modernise  common policies, particularly Agriculture".

*  "EU must bring immediate replies to the Global Crisis".

- "Lawless liberalism failed". "The Model we want is that of a Responsible Market Economy, which favors Enterpreneurs and Workers, above Speculators ;  Long-term Investment, over immediate profiits".

- "We appeal upon the EU to take, from June, the first decisions to ensure a real European Regulation of Financial Markets, based on coordination and cooperation". "On speculative funds, on fiscal heavens, CEO's and financial operators' earnings, EU must give the example".

- "We call to change the rules of accounts, which are important for our Economy's revival : The competent normative authorities must take action". "The issue of a sufficient Credit offer is of central importance for our Economy". "We don't accept that, during this Financial Crisis, the European Banks' capacity to lend money might be unjustly reduced by Capital's requirements and accountant's rules

* "During the German and French Presidencies, EU has resoçlutely prepared itself for the fight against Global Warming... EU is the 1st and only area in the World to have adopted a package of ambitious and legally binding rules to comply with International Aims"

- "We have now to convince our Friends and Partners, to get involved, in order to atteint, next December at Copenhagen, a Global Agreement worthy of whay is at stake. Our closer ally, the US, but also other big industrial countries, must commit themselves with the same force as the Europeans".

"Green Growth is a Chance ... and an opportunity to create jobs turned towards the Future. Europe must be a leader".

- But, at the same time, we must ensure that our companies remain competitive in the World. The ambitious European involvements on Climat must not lead into a position where EU industry might become a Victim of Unfair Competition. Climat protection and Competitvity must go together. If our International partners refuse to associate themselves to our efforts, we are determined to take measures to protect European Industry"

* "Europe must be more ambitious for its Industry" : "It must favor the emergence of strong European enterprises at a Global level".

- "As long as an International mechanism" to "monitor Public Aids at WTO level, and hinder 3rd Countries to give abusive subsidies to their enterprises, provoking unfair competition", is "not yet set up, we must consider Transitory European Solutions".

* "The current Public Debt is too heavy... We must head anew towards sound public finance, as soon as we'd have passed the crucial stage in this crisis".
-------------------------------------------------

* Last, but not least :  "Europe must play a top-level role in the World"

- "For that purpose,  it needs efficient Institutions. That's why we need Lisbon Treaty". "The 27 Member States decided, last December (2008) that the Treaty should enter into force before the end of this year (2009)". To obtain that, June EU Council must agree "on the Guarantees for Ireland".

- But, "to be able to act, EU needs Borders. An Enlargment without Limits is not possible", Sarkozy and Merkel stressed in an obvious reference to Turkey, etc.

- "In order to be strong, Europe must assume its Values and its Identity". "Human Rights .. are at the basis of our commitment for a Peaceful Development accross the World".

- "For that purpose, we shall strengthen our common Defence and Security policy".
----------------------

* "We are ready to contribute to activate the EU towards the realisation of these aims, with our EU Partners".

"In order to succeed", Europe  "needs the active involvment of all, starting by Citizens themselves. That's why the June 7 rendez-vous is important", and "we are calling all Europeans to vote".

"We are convinced that, if Europe wants, Europe can", they conclude.
-----------------------

Precisely : - What can better forge "Europe's Will" than a "European Consciousness" emerging from political, democratic struggles to face Global Challenges, and open big New Horizons, including by crystal-clear Public Debates, with active EU Citizens' involvement, before the most important EU Decisions affecting People's lives ?

Precisely what "EuroFora"s project warns since 1997-2007, and unprecedented Majority Abstentions, since 1999-2004, added to 3 "NO" to EU Referenda in 2005 and 2007, proved meanwhile..

Let's hope that the Time wasted by some scandalous anti-European and anti-Democratic obstacles of the Past, will stimulate faster, simplified but substantial and persistent, efficient action.-

Polls

2009 EU Elections were won by Parties against Technocracy and Turkey's controversial EU bid, while the 1999-2004 Majority Abstention trend decelerated. What should be done in 2009-2014 ?

Результаты

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