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Pagina principale arrow newsitems arrow Germany : Towards a "New GRO-KO" ?!...

Germany : Towards a "New GRO-KO" ?!...

Scritto da ACM
Monday, 19 February 2018
new_groko_patchwork_eurofora_400_01 

*Strasbourg/Angelo Marcopolo/- After 2 "GroKo" - Big Coalition Governments with an obliged CoHabitation of ChristianDemocrats/EPP and Socialists, the German People might, perhaps, be Ready also for a 3rd "GroKo" Governemental Coalition, during the Period of 2018-2021, But... of anOther, UnExpected, even if rather Logical, entirely New Political Color ?

The Latest Polls raise the Question de facto : For the 1st Time in History, the "Socialist" Party, with Only 15,5% of the Intentions of Vote,  Falls Down even Lower than the New, Rightist "Alternative" Party (AfD), which Grows, on the Contrary, Becoming the 2nd Biggest Party Nationwide, with 16% Today.


According to that "INSA" Poll for "BILD-Zeitung", Follow the "Greens" with 13%, the Left with 11%, and the Liberals with 9%.


The ChristianDemocrats/EPP of Chancellor Angie Merkel's CDU/CSU, unlike SPD's collapse, they Grow Up to 32%.


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In fact, such a Political Development did Not really came Suddenly, out of the blue : Already, several Previous Polls had Recently Revealed a Trend for Socialists to be Falling Down, at the same time that Rightists were Growing, while ChristianDemocrats remained Stable or even ameliorated, more or less, their position.


F.ex., among others  :


 - Already, as early as since January 29, the SPD had Fallen to 18%, while the AfD had Grown up to 14%, (INSA Poll).


- But it's mainly Since February 12, that Socialists Fell Dangerously Down to Only 16,5%, very Near to the Rightists, which had Grown up to 15%, i.e. with a Tiny Difference of just 1,5%... (INSA/BILD).


- This had been Confirmed, and Extended even Further, also by an INFRATEST-DIMAP Poll, Later on February 15, where  Socialists had Fallen even Lower, Down to 16%, while the Rightists had Grown up to 15%, i.e. with an even Smaller Difference of Only 1%.

=> It Seems that Martin Schultz's UnExpected Departure, Both from the SPD's Party Presidency and from a probable and logical Foreign Ministerial position in a probable "Gro-Ko" Government, has considerably Accelerated an UnPrecedented Downward Trend for the Socialists, (as well as a Growing Trend for the "Alternative" AfD Party).


Schulz, a Twice Elected former EU Parliament's President, and one among the Longest-Serving former MEPs (1993-2017), Naturally was a Normal Choice for the Mission of a New Foreign Minister at another "GroKo" Cohabitation Government of ChristianDemocrats and Socialists, where his Experience and Contacts at a Level of Heads of State/Government and Leaders of European, PanEuropean and International Organisations, could certainly be Useful Both for Germany and all Europe.


But this was Undemined by a Sudden, UnPrecedented Row, Triggered by a Personal Attack with Harsh Words in Public, mainly by the Out-Going MFA, Sigmar Gabriel, (a Short-lived Foreign Minister, where he had just Succeeded to Steinmeier's New Job as Germany's President), former SPD's Head, and apparently close to a Turkish-origin Socialist that he had Curiously Chosen himself for Minister of ..."Integration", (inevitably Fuelling AfD Rightists' Chances among the German People), as it was Noted also by many others, including, f.ex., an "Eurofora"s fan in our Forum (at: http://www.eurofora.net/forum/index.php/topic,871.0.html), and a relevant, locacious Photo published, immediately Afterwards, by "Welt" mainstream Newspaper, (etc).

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Sigmar Gabriel reportedly Opened Fire 1st, by Accusing Schulz in Public to Betray his Promises and even by citting his Daughter criticizing "that guy who has Hair on his Face (sic !)"... Schulz prefered to take a Dignified stance, and Announced his Withrawal Both from that Foreign Ministry contest and from SPD Party's Leadership, claiming that this was done in order to Help the Party's Members Endorse by Voting the latest "GroKo" Deal. But his Sister, in a Press Interview which went Viral at all Medias, Fired Back by slaming most of SPD's current Top Bureaucracy in Berlin as a ... "Snake-Pit" (sic !). 

 

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 bild_on_schulzs_sister_firing_back_at_snakepit_in_spd_top_bild__eurofora_400

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Things became Worse, also at a Citizens'-wide level, when Newspaper "BILD" Revealed, later this Evening, the UnPrecedented Scandal of a ...DOG having been Recently Registered and Officialy "Welcomed" as a full Member of the current "Socialist" Party, precisely when a Crucial Vote on extending, or not, the previous "GroKo" has just Started, among All Members of a Divided and Ailing SPD, sharply Falling in Polls particularly after Schulz's unexpected and strange Departure, (Comp. Supra). SPD's Officials, shortly Afterwards, Declared that the registered Dog (a Skiny Female named "Lima"), will be Excluded from Voting on that "Gro-Ko", but the Story went, meanwhile, Viral at the World Wide Web (UPDATED)...

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newspaper_bild_on_dog_lima_as_psd_member__manipulations_bildeurofora_screenshot_400 

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=> An Obvious Result is that, in Addition to well Known Difficulties and/or UnCertainties about the Final Outcome of a still On-Going Massive Consultation of all SPD's Members on a Recent Draft Deal between ChristianDemocrats and Socialists, due to Conclude on March 2, Now, it's even the Possibility and/or Legitimacy of the Socialists to eventually participate at another "Gro-Ko" Government with the ChristianDemocrats/EPP which is at Risk :  


Since they do Not Represent, no more, all Together, but Only 47,5% of the Votes, i.e. they have practically Lost the Majority of the People, (as also mainstream "FAZ" Newspaper observes Today) !


+ It's true, however, that, at least until now, the AfD's "Alternative", with 16%, has Not Yet a clear Majority, even if it was Added to a ChristianDemocrat/CDU-CSU's 32%, according to the Latest Poll, (Comp. Supra), since they still Miss the point (with 48% all) just for 2%...


>>> Nevertheless, it's also a Fact, that, f.ex., the New ChristianDemocrat/EPP Party's Secretary Generale designate, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, has just Stressed, for the 1st Time, also Today, (i.e. the Same Day that the above-mentioned Latest Poll revealed that AfD's Rightists had just Bypassed SPD's Socialists : Comp. Supra), that: - "We can No Longer Ignore the AfD", as mainstream Medias (f.ex. "Die Welt", etc) noted, adding a call also for relevant "Discussions with the Citizens".


+ Moreover, by a Coincidence, it's also just a Few Days ago, that AfD's vice-President, and former MEP at EU Parliament in Strasbourg, Beatrix von Storch, who, speaking to Mainstream Newspaper "Welt", just After Observing the Fact that - "Currently, the GroKo (with the Socialists) has No more a Majority", (as that Poll of February 15 had already shown : Comp. Supra), she Added :


- But, "in Principle ("in Theory"), We have, Together with the CDU (ChristianDemocrats), the FDP (Liberals), and the AfD (Conservatives/Rightists), a Bourgeois-Liberal Majority (i.e. of the Right) in this Country".


- The only thing she regretted, in this regard, is that, in her view, currently "the CDU (ChristianDemocrats/EPP) is Too much at the Left", as she felt until recently.


>>> Indeed, it's an UnDeniable Fact that, Already since the Latest Elections of September 2017, the German People have clearly Voted for an Absolute Majority located at the Right side of the political spectrum, giving a Crystal-clear 56 % to the ChristianDemocrats (CDU/CSU), Rightists/Conservatives (AfD), and Liberals (FDP), taken Together, as "Eurofora" had already Observed then, (See: http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/2017germanelectionresults.html, etc).


+ And Now (on 19 February 2018), this has been Confirmed and even Extended Further, with the Latest Poll just publishd Today, (Comp. Supra), since the Right side of the political spectrum, taken all Together (CDU/CSU, FDP and AfD), holds a Majority of 57 % in the Intentions of Vote, (i.e. +1% More than what it was already since September 2017).


This is even + 3% More than what might, eventually, get Today a "Jamaica" formula, with CDU/CSU, Liberals and "Greens" (just 54 %), who already have Even notoriously Failed to Agree, soon after the Latest Elections of 9/2017.


-----------------------------------


++ In Addition, the most Recent Political Developments elsewhere in Europe, also Go in a Similar Direction to that which has Already been shown by the Historic Example of CDU's Founder, former Chancellor Adenauer, who had Leaded 2 or 3 National Governments, with his ChristianDemocrat Party being Allied to the Rightist/Conservative ("Deutsche") Party of his era, (already, as Early as since 1949-1961) :


- Indeed, as it is well known, the recent Victory in Austria of the Young ChristianDemocrat/EPP Leader Sebastien Kurz, (Comp. Kurz's Statements to "Eurofora" in Brussels at: ..., etc) was notoriously followed by a New Coalition Government formed by his Center-Right Party together with the Rightists/Conservatives of the FPÖ Party, due to take over EU's rotating Chairmanship from July 2018.


- Meanwhile, anOther Recent (mid-2017) Governemental Coalition between a Mainstream ChristianDemocrat/EPP Party and a Rightist/Conservative Party, has just Started to Chair EU's Council from January 2018, under Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, (Leader of the "Citizens for a European Development" Center-Right Party), and the Rightist Party of "Patriots", (who have Accepted, however, a Pro-European Program).


- And CoE's PanEuropean Organisation for Human Rights, Democracy and Rule of Law, is already Chaired (from November 2017 up to May 2018 included) by Denmark, whose Center-Right Government works thanks to an Agreement with the Rightists/Conservatives (who have prefered Not to get any Ministerial post, but Support that Government through theis Votes at the National Parliament).


- Moreover, CoE is due to be Chaired, Later-on, also by Finland, which has just Concluded its OSCE's Chairmanship, and notoriously has a Coalition Government including the Rightists/Conservatives.


- The Czech Republic has Recently formed a New Government under Prime Minister Babis' Neo-Conservative Party, while even the atypical Conservative President Milos Zeman has just been re-Elected.


- And, to this List, might even be Added, Soon, also Italy, after the forthcoming Elections at the Beginning of March 2018, (etc)...


-----------------------------------


+++ Even inside the German Parties, relevant Viewpoints seem to Evolve :


- F.ex., immediately After "Eurofora"'s Publication on an eventual "Bahamas"' Coalition (CDU/CSU, Liberals + AfD's Rightists) in Germany, since the attempt to broker a "Jamaica" Coalition (CDU/CSU, Liberals + "Greens") had just Failed, mainly over Differences on Mass Asylum Seekers/irregular Migrants' Issues, last November 2017, (See : http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/germanyfromjamaicatobahamascoalition.html ), AfD's vice-President Beatrix von Storch emails us her "Bericht von Berlin" NewsLetter, on the 1st of December 2017, where she Resumes her Position on an eventual CDU/CSU-Liberals+ Coalition Government, by stressing from the outset that "it's not a question of Colors" (sic ! Comp. the "Bahamas" or "Jamaica" Flag Colors' Symbolism), "but of Content and Beliefs" : There she makes it Clear that, even if there still are certain "Contradictions in Fundamental Points" between ChristianDemocrats and Conservatives/Rightists, However, AfD's "Opposition" is "Not any Obstruction at all", since it would be Willing to "Support Concrete Measures" which would serve "Germany's National Interests", in case of a CDU/CSU-based Government in the foreseable Future.


Even among the Issues that she states for Differences :


- either it's rather a matter of Degree : as in the case of "Reverse", "Not Only Stop Islamization" ;


- or it's a matter of the Past : As in the Refusal of "any Further €uro-Rescue Aid", since, Nowadays, almost All formerly Aided €uro-Area Countries have already Concluded their Programs, while in the Particular case of Greece it Ends on August 2018 ;


- if it isn't something where some Agreements might, eventually, be found : As on "Direct Democracy", where even Mainstream New French President Macron seems to have some  a priori Interesting Ideas, while also Bundestag's New President Schäuble has stressed, Earlier in Stresbourg that any possible Advance in €uroArea's Integration must Develop closer Democratic Links to EU Citizens, and, Already, EU's Lisbon Treaty, (mainly Drafted by former French President Sarkozy and Chancellor Merkel since 2007-2010), provides for some, Untapped yet, Interesting Possibilities, such as, f.ex., a Better Development of its EU "Citizens' Initiative", and/or a "Regular Dialogue" between Citizens and EU Institutions, (Article 11), which has Not yet been really Used, (etc).


 - or, in reality, a "Fake" Opposition : As that which was supposed to be on "Same Sex Marriage", where, in Fact, more than 75% of CDU/CSU MPs (including Chancellor Angie Merkel) recently Voted "Against". => Significantly, this supposed "Difference" between AfD's Conservatives and CDU/CSU's ChristianDemocrats, was Earlier Noted by Von Stock in an Article Published, apparently, Before she became Aware of "Eurofora"s above mentioned Publication, (where We Analyze the Facts showing that Merkel's Acceptance of a Bundestag Vote on "SSM", back on July 2017, was apparently Motivated by the Need to Prevent a Center-LEFT, Hostile Coalition between Socialists, Liberals, Greens and the Left, precisely Triggered by that Pretext then, and Observe that More than 75% of CDU/CSU MPs Voted "Against", while the "AfD"s Conservatives/Rightists had Not yet Entereed in the Bundestag, then). Thus, Von Storch, significantly, did Not Repeat that Claim in her Subsequently E-Mailed NewsLetter, which was Obviously Written AFTER she had a real Chance to Read the above-mentioned "Eurofora"s relevant Publication, (Comp. Supra).


+ And a Similar Phenomenon is observed even concerning, on the Contrary, the Points in which ChristianDemocrats and Conservatives/Rightists might, Possibly, Agree, according to Von Storch : F.ex.,  in her Earlier relevant Publication to a Newspaper she Cited Only the case of an eventual "Prolongation of the Suspension of Family (lato sensu) ReUnification for ... those (Foreign Mass Asylum Seekers) who are entitled Only to a Subsidiary Protection", (i.e. Not Real Political Refugees, fleeing Personal persecution for their Political Ideas/Struggle, but rather what Sarkozy had called : "War Refugees", Massively Fleeing General Conditions provoked by War Destructions, etc., to the Detriment of All Inhabitants of an area). But, in her Subsequent E-mailed NewsLetter, she Significantly Omits any such Unique Reference Only to that Issue Alone, AFTER having a real Chance to Read "Eurofora"s relevant Publication, where were Cited not only 1, but also Many and Various Other Issues of Probable Agreements between ChristianDemocrats and Conservatives/Rightists Nowadays...


----------------------------


+ Meanwhile, Chancellor Angie Merkel earlier Surprized, during an Atypical, Original Conference with Young Children in Berlin, transmitted by Radio-TV on September 2017, Month of the Latest Elections in Germany, when she Revealed that her "Favorite Prime Minister" was ... "Norway's Erna Solberg", who has, notoriously, just Won also a anOther, 2nd Election in a row, as Leader of a Governemental Coalition of her ChristianDemocrat/EPP Center-Right Party together with that Scandinavian Country's Rightists !


++ And, Today, on February 2018, the New CDU's Secretary General designate, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, that Chancellor Merkel Helped to chose, has just reprotedly Declared, after the Latest Polls revealing that AfD's Conservatives/Rightists get a Bigger Popular Support than the Socialists, (Comp. Supra), that "We canNot Ignore AfD, No More", also proposing relevant "Discussions with Citizens"...


+++ Even AfD's vice-President, Beatrix von Storch, (who is one of the few Top AfD Politicians that does Not raise any PreCondition against Chancellor Angie Merkel, personally, as Others did), in an Interview published Today (19 February 2018) by Mainstream Newspaper "Die Welt", points at a "Growing Resistance inside the CDU", (during these Times of "GroKo" in CoHabitation with the Socialists), and Particularly at "its Base".


- While, on the Contrary, just Before the September 2017 Elections,
she  had Complained to "Eurofora" in EU Parliament that, in fact, it would be "Impossible" for AfD's Conservatives/Rightis MEPs to eventually Cooperate with ChristianDemocrats/PPE because "I have Tried", but -"They doN't even Talk to us !", as she had claimed then, (Comp., f.ex. at: http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/germanyfromjamaicatobahamascoalition.html).                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Chancellor Angie Merkel has already Proven, several times, that, if really needed, she is Able to Make sudden Big Political "U-Turns", (as she did, f.ex., on Energy Issues just After 2011's Fukushima incident, etc).


And she Obviously Likes to have someone Else at her Right, so that she would really look to be near the "Center", (her favorite "Mitte"), as she managed to do, after so many years, at last, with the emerging "AfD"s Rightists.  


=> In such a Context, when People saw the Experienced and always Popular German "BundesKanzlerin", (whose CDU Party skyrockets in Polls),  ...Wear her Famous Jacket in "GREEN" Color while Heading towards Negotiations for a "Jamaica" Coalition including the "Greens", But in ..."RED" when she Negotiated with the "Socialists" for a "GroKo", while she Recently started to Wear Nowadays a ..."BLUE" version, they inevitably Wonder :

 - Are all these (Symbolic but Timely) Facts, a pure "Coincidence"  ?


- Or, Perhaps, Not ?


You Never Know, with Politics...

 

 angie_merkel_jackets_succesive_colors_eurofora_patchwork_inclueds_also_original_photos_400

 

 

(../..)


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    Scientific innovation joined to Faith for Human Rights, Eastern Partnership and fight against the Crisis, but above all, the need to overcome the "Crisis of Trust" from EU Citizens, are the main priorities for new EU Parliament's President, Polish Jerzy Buzek, that a 555-votes-strong majority of MEPs on July 14,  Strasbourg made a living symbol of the fact that, 20 years after the fall of Berlin Wall (1989 - 2009) there is no more an Eastern or Western Europe, but only one Europe, as the head of the largest group of MEPs, ChristianDemocrats/EPP, Joseph Daul, stressed after the event.

    Speaking later to a group of Strasbourg's Journalists, including "EuroFora", the new EU Parliament's President clarified his stance on concrete topical issues, as f.ex. that of Turkey's controversial EU bid, which was one of the main issues of the June 2009 Electoral campain, clearly won by his party of ChristianDemocrats/EPP :  - "At present, Turkey does not fullfil none of EU conditions", he stressed, (See infra).

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    Buzek is well known in Strasbourg and to "EuroFora" as EU Rapporteur for the Framework Program of Scientific Research and Development of Technologies. A Natural Science Professor from the Historic and Religious landmark Polish City of Częstochowa, active in the famous Solidarnosk grass-roots social movement, he served 4 years as Prime Minister (1997-2001), before being elected as MEP in 2004 and 2009, after he brillantly won the latest EU Election at the head of his party (EPP) almost doubling the number of its MEPs from 15 to 28 !

    - "Innovation" and "Energy safety", as well as fight against the "Cimat change", but also "Eastern Partnership", the "Mediterranean", "Strategic partnerships" with Russia, the USA, etc, and the search for "solutions to the Economic Crisis" that EU Citizens "expect" from us, will be his "priorities", announced from the outset the new EU Parliament's President, reminding also that the quest for "Human and Civic Rights" played an important role in his experience with the Solidarnosc grass-roots social movement in Poland's History

    But, the most important of all, is the urgent need to overcome the "Crisis of Trust" between EU Institutions and the People he stressed : - EU "Citizens often don't understand us", denounced Buzek, launcing a call to "do anything for EU Citizens to understand our work" in EU Parliament : "We (MEPs) need to make EU Citizens involved" in "what we are doing every week, in Strasbourg and Brussels", he proposed. Pointing f.ex. to the hot "Debates" with "strong arguments" exchanged between MEPs during the preparation of their Legislative Decisions, in Committees, delivering often hard struggles between initially opposed points of view, long before forging a majority at the final vote, sometimes more than a year..

    Therefore, EU Parliament will be "open to your criticism, for discussion and exchange of views", he promissed to Journalists in Strasbourg.

    In this way, Buzek, in fact, highlighted "EuroFora"s main idea, that we strongly advocate since 1997-2007, to systematicaly and actively involve EU Citizens in public debates during the decision-making process of important EU measures, which affect their lives and the society in which they live, (and not only just a few weeks each 4 or 5 Years at the eve of EU Elections)...
--------------------
    This is related also to the symbolic gift that Buzek chose to give to the out-going former EU Parliament's President, Hans Gert Poettering, (2007-2009), his collegue in the ChristianDemocrats/EPP, who brillantly won 2009 EU Elections in Germany : A genuine statute of sainte Barbara crafted in Silesia's black Coal by Polish Miners : Those simple but strong people who fought for social change against some technocrats and bureaucrats disguissed into so-called "real-socialists" of old times. (PHOTO).

    It's enough to have seen a popular open air mass, at Warsaw's center, with many thousands of people, old and young, simple workers and intellectuals mixed together, with references to Poland's history and struggles for survival and liberty, through various ages, (as fex. that organized at the eve of CoE's 2005 panEuropean Heads of State and Government for the beatification of late Pope John-Paul II), in order to understand what such symbols mean..

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    But, overcoming the "Crisis of Trust" with EU Citizens obviously implies also to rectify any errors done in the past, fex. on Turkey's controversial EU bid, with controversial decisions taken in 1999 and 2004 to give a "candidate" status and to start EU negotiations, provoking an unprecedented series of 3 "No" to EuroReferenda and 3 Majoriy Abstentions in EU Parliament Elections : 1999, 2005 and 2009, (even if the latest one succeeded to decelerate and almost stop the drop of participation rates, opening hopes for vote's revival after an electoral campaign clearly critical to Turkey's claims in several mainstream EU countries)
    
    Therefore, Buzek was faced with manifold critical Questions on EU Enlargement, most of them citting concrete examples of certain political problems  :  But his replies were almost always given as a matter of general principle :

    F.ex. Questioned on the suspension of EU - Croatia talks because of a Border conflict with EU Member Slovenia, Buzek prefered to speak about principles :

- "We know that during Enlargement, the process can be blocked by failure to resolve this kind of issues",  This concerns also other enlargments' cases", and "these rules are always in force" he warned.


But Buzek avoided to directly reply to a queston on "French and German EPP' calls to define the Borders of Europe", as a German journalist asked him by making a reference to French President Nicolas Sarkozy, and German Chancellor Angie Merkel's, critical statements on Turkey at the June 2009 Electoral campain.    

- "Concerning Enlargement, there's always the same rules : There have to be Criteria, which have to be respected if a Country wants to join the EU", he started to simply reply.

- "For my country (Poland) it took us 15 Years to fullfil these Criteria", Buzek reminded, indicating, if proportions are kept, that Turkey, fex. would have to spend some 25 years before eventually joining the EU..

- "Countries wishing to join the EU need to Change their Systems", as we (Poland and other former Eastern European Countries) did, he stressed.

- "'For me, meeting the condition of Human Rights is one of the Key conditions for membership in the EU", preferring again to speak from the point of view of General Principles, on the occasion of an untimely question on Serbia (which is not even a candidate yet)...

- "Turkey" has, "first of all", to fullfil (EU) Copenhagen criteria". Bevause, currently, none of them is fullfiled by Turkey", New EU Parliament's President, denounced, speaking later to a group of Journalists, including "EuroFora".

buzek_close_a_400 

In particular, on Human Rights :  - "We (EU) can never forget Human Rights", because "this is at the very Foundations of the EU", Buzek added.

On the contrary, when he referred to EU Enlargment for the  "Western Balkans Countries ", Buzek appeared upbeat, finding "promising situations", despite "difficulties" in the Past, since "Countries are queuing to become EU members", and this "generated changes", as he said.

As for Russia, Buzek observed that it was a "very important" country, located "in the same Continent", Europe,  "close to our borders", and "we need eachother". "But Russia' has 'differend poblems : "They claim that their system is Democratic, but rules are differend", and we must be "aware of such differencies", fex. "on Human Rights", that we can't ignore, as he said;

Concerning China, where a journalist observed that the recipient of EU Parliament's latest "Sakharov prize" for freedom of thought is "still in prison", Buzek found that since the 1999 events in Tien Amin square, "we see differencies on Human Rights still today", and expressed his "support" for those who try to ameliorate the situation.

On the contrary, speaking recently to "EuroFora" he strongly supported the idea for an EU - Ukraine cooperation, fex. between Airbus and Antonov, in order to build a  less costly but more performant than the old and problematic A400M, new Military Transport Airplane : - "They (Ukranian Antonov Company) can certainly do it. I'm sure they can. It's a good Idea, and I'd be glad if it was done", he told us. (See : http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/airbusantonov.html )


(../..)

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