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Haupt arrow newsitems arrow Germany : Towards a "New GRO-KO" ?!...

Germany : Towards a "New GRO-KO" ?!...

Geschrieben von ACM
Montag, 19 Februar 2018
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*Strasbourg/Angelo Marcopolo/- After 2 "GroKo" - Big Coalition Governments with an obliged CoHabitation of ChristianDemocrats/EPP and Socialists, the German People might, perhaps, be Ready also for a 3rd "GroKo" Governemental Coalition, during the Period of 2018-2021, But... of anOther, UnExpected, even if rather Logical, entirely New Political Color ?

The Latest Polls raise the Question de facto : For the 1st Time in History, the "Socialist" Party, with Only 15,5% of the Intentions of Vote,  Falls Down even Lower than the New, Rightist "Alternative" Party (AfD), which Grows, on the Contrary, Becoming the 2nd Biggest Party Nationwide, with 16% Today.


According to that "INSA" Poll for "BILD-Zeitung", Follow the "Greens" with 13%, the Left with 11%, and the Liberals with 9%.


The ChristianDemocrats/EPP of Chancellor Angie Merkel's CDU/CSU, unlike SPD's collapse, they Grow Up to 32%.


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In fact, such a Political Development did Not really came Suddenly, out of the blue : Already, several Previous Polls had Recently Revealed a Trend for Socialists to be Falling Down, at the same time that Rightists were Growing, while ChristianDemocrats remained Stable or even ameliorated, more or less, their position.


F.ex., among others  :


 - Already, as early as since January 29, the SPD had Fallen to 18%, while the AfD had Grown up to 14%, (INSA Poll).


- But it's mainly Since February 12, that Socialists Fell Dangerously Down to Only 16,5%, very Near to the Rightists, which had Grown up to 15%, i.e. with a Tiny Difference of just 1,5%... (INSA/BILD).


- This had been Confirmed, and Extended even Further, also by an INFRATEST-DIMAP Poll, Later on February 15, where  Socialists had Fallen even Lower, Down to 16%, while the Rightists had Grown up to 15%, i.e. with an even Smaller Difference of Only 1%.

=> It Seems that Martin Schultz's UnExpected Departure, Both from the SPD's Party Presidency and from a probable and logical Foreign Ministerial position in a probable "Gro-Ko" Government, has considerably Accelerated an UnPrecedented Downward Trend for the Socialists, (as well as a Growing Trend for the "Alternative" AfD Party).


Schulz, a Twice Elected former EU Parliament's President, and one among the Longest-Serving former MEPs (1993-2017), Naturally was a Normal Choice for the Mission of a New Foreign Minister at another "GroKo" Cohabitation Government of ChristianDemocrats and Socialists, where his Experience and Contacts at a Level of Heads of State/Government and Leaders of European, PanEuropean and International Organisations, could certainly be Useful Both for Germany and all Europe.


But this was Undemined by a Sudden, UnPrecedented Row, Triggered by a Personal Attack with Harsh Words in Public, mainly by the Out-Going MFA, Sigmar Gabriel, (a Short-lived Foreign Minister, where he had just Succeeded to Steinmeier's New Job as Germany's President), former SPD's Head, and apparently close to a Turkish-origin Socialist that he had Curiously Chosen himself for Minister of ..."Integration", (inevitably Fuelling AfD Rightists' Chances among the German People), as it was Noted also by many others, including, f.ex., an "Eurofora"s fan in our Forum (at: http://www.eurofora.net/forum/index.php/topic,871.0.html), and a relevant, locacious Photo published, immediately Afterwards, by "Welt" mainstream Newspaper, (etc).

martin_schulz_pointing_at_the_snakes_pit..._welt_revu_400

Sigmar Gabriel reportedly Opened Fire 1st, by Accusing Schulz in Public to Betray his Promises and even by citting his Daughter criticizing "that guy who has Hair on his Face (sic !)"... Schulz prefered to take a Dignified stance, and Announced his Withrawal Both from that Foreign Ministry contest and from SPD Party's Leadership, claiming that this was done in order to Help the Party's Members Endorse by Voting the latest "GroKo" Deal. But his Sister, in a Press Interview which went Viral at all Medias, Fired Back by slaming most of SPD's current Top Bureaucracy in Berlin as a ... "Snake-Pit" (sic !). 

 

schulzs_sister_fires_back_at_spd_bureaucracy__snakepit_welt__eurofora_400 

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Things became Worse, also at a Citizens'-wide level, when Newspaper "BILD" Revealed, later this Evening, the UnPrecedented Scandal of a ...DOG having been Recently Registered and Officialy "Welcomed" as a full Member of the current "Socialist" Party, precisely when a Crucial Vote on extending, or not, the previous "GroKo" has just Started, among All Members of a Divided and Ailing SPD, sharply Falling in Polls particularly after Schulz's unexpected and strange Departure, (Comp. Supra). SPD's Officials, shortly Afterwards, Declared that the registered Dog (a Skiny Female named "Lima"), will be Excluded from Voting on that "Gro-Ko", but the Story went, meanwhile, Viral at the World Wide Web (UPDATED)...

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newspaper_bild_on_dog_lima_as_psd_member__manipulations_bildeurofora_screenshot_400 

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=> An Obvious Result is that, in Addition to well Known Difficulties and/or UnCertainties about the Final Outcome of a still On-Going Massive Consultation of all SPD's Members on a Recent Draft Deal between ChristianDemocrats and Socialists, due to Conclude on March 2, Now, it's even the Possibility and/or Legitimacy of the Socialists to eventually participate at another "Gro-Ko" Government with the ChristianDemocrats/EPP which is at Risk :  


Since they do Not Represent, no more, all Together, but Only 47,5% of the Votes, i.e. they have practically Lost the Majority of the People, (as also mainstream "FAZ" Newspaper observes Today) !


+ It's true, however, that, at least until now, the AfD's "Alternative", with 16%, has Not Yet a clear Majority, even if it was Added to a ChristianDemocrat/CDU-CSU's 32%, according to the Latest Poll, (Comp. Supra), since they still Miss the point (with 48% all) just for 2%...


>>> Nevertheless, it's also a Fact, that, f.ex., the New ChristianDemocrat/EPP Party's Secretary Generale designate, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, has just Stressed, for the 1st Time, also Today, (i.e. the Same Day that the above-mentioned Latest Poll revealed that AfD's Rightists had just Bypassed SPD's Socialists : Comp. Supra), that: - "We can No Longer Ignore the AfD", as mainstream Medias (f.ex. "Die Welt", etc) noted, adding a call also for relevant "Discussions with the Citizens".


+ Moreover, by a Coincidence, it's also just a Few Days ago, that AfD's vice-President, and former MEP at EU Parliament in Strasbourg, Beatrix von Storch, who, speaking to Mainstream Newspaper "Welt", just After Observing the Fact that - "Currently, the GroKo (with the Socialists) has No more a Majority", (as that Poll of February 15 had already shown : Comp. Supra), she Added :


- But, "in Principle ("in Theory"), We have, Together with the CDU (ChristianDemocrats), the FDP (Liberals), and the AfD (Conservatives/Rightists), a Bourgeois-Liberal Majority (i.e. of the Right) in this Country".


- The only thing she regretted, in this regard, is that, in her view, currently "the CDU (ChristianDemocrats/EPP) is Too much at the Left", as she felt until recently.


>>> Indeed, it's an UnDeniable Fact that, Already since the Latest Elections of September 2017, the German People have clearly Voted for an Absolute Majority located at the Right side of the political spectrum, giving a Crystal-clear 56 % to the ChristianDemocrats (CDU/CSU), Rightists/Conservatives (AfD), and Liberals (FDP), taken Together, as "Eurofora" had already Observed then, (See: http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/2017germanelectionresults.html, etc).


+ And Now (on 19 February 2018), this has been Confirmed and even Extended Further, with the Latest Poll just publishd Today, (Comp. Supra), since the Right side of the political spectrum, taken all Together (CDU/CSU, FDP and AfD), holds a Majority of 57 % in the Intentions of Vote, (i.e. +1% More than what it was already since September 2017).


This is even + 3% More than what might, eventually, get Today a "Jamaica" formula, with CDU/CSU, Liberals and "Greens" (just 54 %), who already have Even notoriously Failed to Agree, soon after the Latest Elections of 9/2017.


-----------------------------------


++ In Addition, the most Recent Political Developments elsewhere in Europe, also Go in a Similar Direction to that which has Already been shown by the Historic Example of CDU's Founder, former Chancellor Adenauer, who had Leaded 2 or 3 National Governments, with his ChristianDemocrat Party being Allied to the Rightist/Conservative ("Deutsche") Party of his era, (already, as Early as since 1949-1961) :


- Indeed, as it is well known, the recent Victory in Austria of the Young ChristianDemocrat/EPP Leader Sebastien Kurz, (Comp. Kurz's Statements to "Eurofora" in Brussels at: ..., etc) was notoriously followed by a New Coalition Government formed by his Center-Right Party together with the Rightists/Conservatives of the FPÖ Party, due to take over EU's rotating Chairmanship from July 2018.


- Meanwhile, anOther Recent (mid-2017) Governemental Coalition between a Mainstream ChristianDemocrat/EPP Party and a Rightist/Conservative Party, has just Started to Chair EU's Council from January 2018, under Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, (Leader of the "Citizens for a European Development" Center-Right Party), and the Rightist Party of "Patriots", (who have Accepted, however, a Pro-European Program).


- And CoE's PanEuropean Organisation for Human Rights, Democracy and Rule of Law, is already Chaired (from November 2017 up to May 2018 included) by Denmark, whose Center-Right Government works thanks to an Agreement with the Rightists/Conservatives (who have prefered Not to get any Ministerial post, but Support that Government through theis Votes at the National Parliament).


- Moreover, CoE is due to be Chaired, Later-on, also by Finland, which has just Concluded its OSCE's Chairmanship, and notoriously has a Coalition Government including the Rightists/Conservatives.


- The Czech Republic has Recently formed a New Government under Prime Minister Babis' Neo-Conservative Party, while even the atypical Conservative President Milos Zeman has just been re-Elected.


- And, to this List, might even be Added, Soon, also Italy, after the forthcoming Elections at the Beginning of March 2018, (etc)...


-----------------------------------


+++ Even inside the German Parties, relevant Viewpoints seem to Evolve :


- F.ex., immediately After "Eurofora"'s Publication on an eventual "Bahamas"' Coalition (CDU/CSU, Liberals + AfD's Rightists) in Germany, since the attempt to broker a "Jamaica" Coalition (CDU/CSU, Liberals + "Greens") had just Failed, mainly over Differences on Mass Asylum Seekers/irregular Migrants' Issues, last November 2017, (See : http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/germanyfromjamaicatobahamascoalition.html ), AfD's vice-President Beatrix von Storch emails us her "Bericht von Berlin" NewsLetter, on the 1st of December 2017, where she Resumes her Position on an eventual CDU/CSU-Liberals+ Coalition Government, by stressing from the outset that "it's not a question of Colors" (sic ! Comp. the "Bahamas" or "Jamaica" Flag Colors' Symbolism), "but of Content and Beliefs" : There she makes it Clear that, even if there still are certain "Contradictions in Fundamental Points" between ChristianDemocrats and Conservatives/Rightists, However, AfD's "Opposition" is "Not any Obstruction at all", since it would be Willing to "Support Concrete Measures" which would serve "Germany's National Interests", in case of a CDU/CSU-based Government in the foreseable Future.


Even among the Issues that she states for Differences :


- either it's rather a matter of Degree : as in the case of "Reverse", "Not Only Stop Islamization" ;


- or it's a matter of the Past : As in the Refusal of "any Further €uro-Rescue Aid", since, Nowadays, almost All formerly Aided €uro-Area Countries have already Concluded their Programs, while in the Particular case of Greece it Ends on August 2018 ;


- if it isn't something where some Agreements might, eventually, be found : As on "Direct Democracy", where even Mainstream New French President Macron seems to have some  a priori Interesting Ideas, while also Bundestag's New President Schäuble has stressed, Earlier in Stresbourg that any possible Advance in €uroArea's Integration must Develop closer Democratic Links to EU Citizens, and, Already, EU's Lisbon Treaty, (mainly Drafted by former French President Sarkozy and Chancellor Merkel since 2007-2010), provides for some, Untapped yet, Interesting Possibilities, such as, f.ex., a Better Development of its EU "Citizens' Initiative", and/or a "Regular Dialogue" between Citizens and EU Institutions, (Article 11), which has Not yet been really Used, (etc).


 - or, in reality, a "Fake" Opposition : As that which was supposed to be on "Same Sex Marriage", where, in Fact, more than 75% of CDU/CSU MPs (including Chancellor Angie Merkel) recently Voted "Against". => Significantly, this supposed "Difference" between AfD's Conservatives and CDU/CSU's ChristianDemocrats, was Earlier Noted by Von Stock in an Article Published, apparently, Before she became Aware of "Eurofora"s above mentioned Publication, (where We Analyze the Facts showing that Merkel's Acceptance of a Bundestag Vote on "SSM", back on July 2017, was apparently Motivated by the Need to Prevent a Center-LEFT, Hostile Coalition between Socialists, Liberals, Greens and the Left, precisely Triggered by that Pretext then, and Observe that More than 75% of CDU/CSU MPs Voted "Against", while the "AfD"s Conservatives/Rightists had Not yet Entereed in the Bundestag, then). Thus, Von Storch, significantly, did Not Repeat that Claim in her Subsequently E-Mailed NewsLetter, which was Obviously Written AFTER she had a real Chance to Read the above-mentioned "Eurofora"s relevant Publication, (Comp. Supra).


+ And a Similar Phenomenon is observed even concerning, on the Contrary, the Points in which ChristianDemocrats and Conservatives/Rightists might, Possibly, Agree, according to Von Storch : F.ex.,  in her Earlier relevant Publication to a Newspaper she Cited Only the case of an eventual "Prolongation of the Suspension of Family (lato sensu) ReUnification for ... those (Foreign Mass Asylum Seekers) who are entitled Only to a Subsidiary Protection", (i.e. Not Real Political Refugees, fleeing Personal persecution for their Political Ideas/Struggle, but rather what Sarkozy had called : "War Refugees", Massively Fleeing General Conditions provoked by War Destructions, etc., to the Detriment of All Inhabitants of an area). But, in her Subsequent E-mailed NewsLetter, she Significantly Omits any such Unique Reference Only to that Issue Alone, AFTER having a real Chance to Read "Eurofora"s relevant Publication, where were Cited not only 1, but also Many and Various Other Issues of Probable Agreements between ChristianDemocrats and Conservatives/Rightists Nowadays...


----------------------------


+ Meanwhile, Chancellor Angie Merkel earlier Surprized, during an Atypical, Original Conference with Young Children in Berlin, transmitted by Radio-TV on September 2017, Month of the Latest Elections in Germany, when she Revealed that her "Favorite Prime Minister" was ... "Norway's Erna Solberg", who has, notoriously, just Won also a anOther, 2nd Election in a row, as Leader of a Governemental Coalition of her ChristianDemocrat/EPP Center-Right Party together with that Scandinavian Country's Rightists !


++ And, Today, on February 2018, the New CDU's Secretary General designate, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, that Chancellor Merkel Helped to chose, has just reprotedly Declared, after the Latest Polls revealing that AfD's Conservatives/Rightists get a Bigger Popular Support than the Socialists, (Comp. Supra), that "We canNot Ignore AfD, No More", also proposing relevant "Discussions with Citizens"...


+++ Even AfD's vice-President, Beatrix von Storch, (who is one of the few Top AfD Politicians that does Not raise any PreCondition against Chancellor Angie Merkel, personally, as Others did), in an Interview published Today (19 February 2018) by Mainstream Newspaper "Die Welt", points at a "Growing Resistance inside the CDU", (during these Times of "GroKo" in CoHabitation with the Socialists), and Particularly at "its Base".


- While, on the Contrary, just Before the September 2017 Elections,
she  had Complained to "Eurofora" in EU Parliament that, in fact, it would be "Impossible" for AfD's Conservatives/Rightis MEPs to eventually Cooperate with ChristianDemocrats/PPE because "I have Tried", but -"They doN't even Talk to us !", as she had claimed then, (Comp., f.ex. at: http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/germanyfromjamaicatobahamascoalition.html).                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Chancellor Angie Merkel has already Proven, several times, that, if really needed, she is Able to Make sudden Big Political "U-Turns", (as she did, f.ex., on Energy Issues just After 2011's Fukushima incident, etc).


And she Obviously Likes to have someone Else at her Right, so that she would really look to be near the "Center", (her favorite "Mitte"), as she managed to do, after so many years, at last, with the emerging "AfD"s Rightists.  


=> In such a Context, when People saw the Experienced and always Popular German "BundesKanzlerin", (whose CDU Party skyrockets in Polls),  ...Wear her Famous Jacket in "GREEN" Color while Heading towards Negotiations for a "Jamaica" Coalition including the "Greens", But in ..."RED" when she Negotiated with the "Socialists" for a "GroKo", while she Recently started to Wear Nowadays a ..."BLUE" version, they inevitably Wonder :

 - Are all these (Symbolic but Timely) Facts, a pure "Coincidence"  ?


- Or, Perhaps, Not ?


You Never Know, with Politics...

 

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(../..)


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Former "Green-Red" German government's Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer's job at the controversial Turkish pipeline "Nabucco" was denounced as "not proper", "very bad", and "incompatible with Democracy", by the new President of EU Parliament's EuroLeft Group, German Lothar Bisky, replying to an "EuroFora" question.

For once, criticism of Joschka Fischer's doings with Turkey affecting Europe, didn't come only from the Center-Right of the political spectrum, but even from his Left side : The experienced Bisky, who has been chairing all over 1993-2009 the PDS - Die Linke party :  

- "Former Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer got involved in dealings with oil-gaz business in a foreign country, Turkey, and its controversial Nabucco pipeline. This raises questions about Democracy, also because of the well known problems of Human Rights violations in that country. Do you thing that this might be abused in order to cover up and close EU's eyes on Human Rights violations ?", "EuroFora" asked Bisky.

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- "Nabucco pipeline is (only) at the planning stage". And "there are some difficulties",  he observed from the start. But "'I don't want to get into the details of Nabucco pipeline, because I don't think that there is any point for it at the moment".
 
At any case,  "we  (EU Parliament's EuroLeft Group) strongly believe that Politicians should not get involved in the Energy Business, and all these commercial transactions", President Bisky declared on the Joschka Fiischer's affair.

- "We feel that it's something that shouldn't be done. It's not proper !"           

- "We don't think that it's compatible with Democracy either, and it gets politics into a very Bad track", Bisky went on to denounce.
                                                                                                                                                                        
- "EuroLeft  and "Die Linke" always spoke against that, saying that politicians should not get directly into the arms of private enterprises"

- "It is pretty bad if a former Minister takes a job f.ex. in a major Energy producer. So, it's an issue if a Minister who may have seen excellent opportunities, subsequently gets personally grasp of them, in very serious parts of the economy, once he has given up his (Government) job."

- "It doesn't really make politics in general look any better'", Bisky concluded.

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Earlier, this week in Strasbourg, other Journalists had also raised critical questions on former Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer's involvement in the conroversial Turkish Nabucco pipeline to the President of his own EuroParty : Kohn-Bendit of the "Greens", who, contrary to Bisky, tried to find excuses for Fischer, while criticizing his long-time partner, Schroeder for having done a similar move :

- "Shroeder was chancellor", and he "negociated" with "Russians", who gave him a job only "3 Months" after he resigned from the Government. While "Joschka Fischer", on the contrary, got a job with the controversial Turkish Nabucco pipeline only "4 Years after" he left the Government. "He didn't negociate Nabucco", so I have "no objection", Kohn Bendit claimed.

But, many Facts indicate the contrary :

Joschka Fischer was Foreign Minister in Germany from 1999 up to 2005 : I.e. from the year that EU took the controversial decision to give Turkey a "Candidate" status, until he year it started controversial "accession negotiations, (later declared "open-ended" after Sarkozy-Merkel's arrival from 2005-2007).

During that period was prepared the controversial so-called "Annan" Plan (in fact, drafted by others and attributed afterwards to the former UN SG) on Cyprus, which failed after a Popular Referendum said "No" on 2004 with a large Majoriy of 3/4 : 75%. Mainly because it was criticized for making too much concessions to the Turkish side :  Particularly by restricting Greek Cypriot Refugees' Human Right to return to their ancestral Land and/or get restitution of their Familiy Homes and private properties, usurpated by Ankara's Army since the 1974 militay invasion and continuing occupation of the northern part of Cyprus. And by weakening the Central Government, leaving to 2 "constituent States" so much powers and separate interests that more conflicts appeared inevitable, provoking the danger of a break-down in the foreseable future, with more crisis, troubles, perhaps bloodshed, etc., instead of creating an harmoniously integrated, really one federal State.

The controversial Plan was finalized on March-April 2004 at Burgenstock (Switzerland), curiously in the presence of an Envoy by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Germany, then governed by Joschka Fischer, but in the absence of a French and not even an European Union's Envoy, contrary to what was usually practiced on similar occasions in Switzerland (fex. in 1997 at Montreux, in 2000 at Geneva, etc).

Turkey notoriously exploited the failure of the "Annan" Plan in order to convince the EU to decide to start accession Negotiations on December 2004. This provoked an unprecedented series of Institutional Crisis inside the EU, shortly afterwards, when French and Dutch People rejected, 2 popular EuroReferenda by a majority "'No" vote to the EU Constitutional Treaty on 2005, aggraveted in 2004 a Majority Abstention to EU Elections, etc., followed by the recent Irish "No", etc.

"Nabucco" Gas pipeline was notoriously planned since ..2002. It follows an even earlier idea, for an Oil pipeline Baku-Ceyhun, which started to be prepared on 1999-2001 and was meanwhile recently completed.  

So, facts indicate that what is now at stake is based on decisions made during Joschka Fischer's term as former Foreign Minister, closely interested in Turkey's controversial EU-bid.

To the point that he now practically ...switched jobs with a poliician from Turkey, (the State which pays today openly Joschka Fischer), Mr. Ozdemir, who came earlier in Germany, got fast the nationality, and became EiuroMP in a few years, continuing now as head of the "Greens" in Germany, i.e. in Joschka's former job !...

Such astonishing facts risk, unfotunately, to give to German politician Lothar Bisky's criticism of  representative Democracy a topical meaning :

 - "We (EuroLeft Group) think that what is really at stake is Democracy. It's not only about Gas Pipelines or Energy sources", President Lothar Bisky went on to add in his reply to "EuroFora"'s question on Joscka Fischer's personal interests in the controversial Turkish "Nabuco" pipeline.

Such facts, "make People get more distance from Politics. ...People had had enough, and they are fed up !".

- "That's why we (EuroParliament's "EuroLeft" Group) want to strengthen Direct Democracy in Europe. Citizens should be involved in the (EU) Decision-making. In the end of the day, it's not going to help anyone if Politicians are always taking decisions, without involving Citizens. We want to give a voice to the People of Europe. They've got to have their say in the decisions that are taken. That's one of our absolutely fixed and steadfast views. We want more Direct Democracy in Europe. That's how it can become more effective and stronger", he concluded.

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