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Accueil arrow newsitems arrow Germany : Towards a "New GRO-KO" ?!...

Germany : Towards a "New GRO-KO" ?!...

Ecrit par ACM
Monday, 19 February 2018
new_groko_patchwork_eurofora_400_01 

*Strasbourg/Angelo Marcopolo/- After 2 "GroKo" - Big Coalition Governments with an obliged CoHabitation of ChristianDemocrats/EPP and Socialists, the German People might, perhaps, be Ready also for a 3rd "GroKo" Governemental Coalition, during the Period of 2018-2021, But... of anOther, UnExpected, even if rather Logical, entirely New Political Color ?

The Latest Polls raise the Question de facto : For the 1st Time in History, the "Socialist" Party, with Only 15,5% of the Intentions of Vote,  Falls Down even Lower than the New, Rightist "Alternative" Party (AfD), which Grows, on the Contrary, Becoming the 2nd Biggest Party Nationwide, with 16% Today.


According to that "INSA" Poll for "BILD-Zeitung", Follow the "Greens" with 13%, the Left with 11%, and the Liberals with 9%.


The ChristianDemocrats/EPP of Chancellor Angie Merkel's CDU/CSU, unlike SPD's collapse, they Grow Up to 32%.


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In fact, such a Political Development did Not really came Suddenly, out of the blue : Already, several Previous Polls had Recently Revealed a Trend for Socialists to be Falling Down, at the same time that Rightists were Growing, while ChristianDemocrats remained Stable or even ameliorated, more or less, their position.


F.ex., among others  :


 - Already, as early as since January 29, the SPD had Fallen to 18%, while the AfD had Grown up to 14%, (INSA Poll).


- But it's mainly Since February 12, that Socialists Fell Dangerously Down to Only 16,5%, very Near to the Rightists, which had Grown up to 15%, i.e. with a Tiny Difference of just 1,5%... (INSA/BILD).


- This had been Confirmed, and Extended even Further, also by an INFRATEST-DIMAP Poll, Later on February 15, where  Socialists had Fallen even Lower, Down to 16%, while the Rightists had Grown up to 15%, i.e. with an even Smaller Difference of Only 1%.

=> It Seems that Martin Schultz's UnExpected Departure, Both from the SPD's Party Presidency and from a probable and logical Foreign Ministerial position in a probable "Gro-Ko" Government, has considerably Accelerated an UnPrecedented Downward Trend for the Socialists, (as well as a Growing Trend for the "Alternative" AfD Party).


Schulz, a Twice Elected former EU Parliament's President, and one among the Longest-Serving former MEPs (1993-2017), Naturally was a Normal Choice for the Mission of a New Foreign Minister at another "GroKo" Cohabitation Government of ChristianDemocrats and Socialists, where his Experience and Contacts at a Level of Heads of State/Government and Leaders of European, PanEuropean and International Organisations, could certainly be Useful Both for Germany and all Europe.


But this was Undemined by a Sudden, UnPrecedented Row, Triggered by a Personal Attack with Harsh Words in Public, mainly by the Out-Going MFA, Sigmar Gabriel, (a Short-lived Foreign Minister, where he had just Succeeded to Steinmeier's New Job as Germany's President), former SPD's Head, and apparently close to a Turkish-origin Socialist that he had Curiously Chosen himself for Minister of ..."Integration", (inevitably Fuelling AfD Rightists' Chances among the German People), as it was Noted also by many others, including, f.ex., an "Eurofora"s fan in our Forum (at: http://www.eurofora.net/forum/index.php/topic,871.0.html), and a relevant, locacious Photo published, immediately Afterwards, by "Welt" mainstream Newspaper, (etc).

martin_schulz_pointing_at_the_snakes_pit..._welt_revu_400

Sigmar Gabriel reportedly Opened Fire 1st, by Accusing Schulz in Public to Betray his Promises and even by citting his Daughter criticizing "that guy who has Hair on his Face (sic !)"... Schulz prefered to take a Dignified stance, and Announced his Withrawal Both from that Foreign Ministry contest and from SPD Party's Leadership, claiming that this was done in order to Help the Party's Members Endorse by Voting the latest "GroKo" Deal. But his Sister, in a Press Interview which went Viral at all Medias, Fired Back by slaming most of SPD's current Top Bureaucracy in Berlin as a ... "Snake-Pit" (sic !). 

 

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 bild_on_schulzs_sister_firing_back_at_snakepit_in_spd_top_bild__eurofora_400

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Things became Worse, also at a Citizens'-wide level, when Newspaper "BILD" Revealed, later this Evening, the UnPrecedented Scandal of a ...DOG having been Recently Registered and Officialy "Welcomed" as a full Member of the current "Socialist" Party, precisely when a Crucial Vote on extending, or not, the previous "GroKo" has just Started, among All Members of a Divided and Ailing SPD, sharply Falling in Polls particularly after Schulz's unexpected and strange Departure, (Comp. Supra). SPD's Officials, shortly Afterwards, Declared that the registered Dog (a Skiny Female named "Lima"), will be Excluded from Voting on that "Gro-Ko", but the Story went, meanwhile, Viral at the World Wide Web (UPDATED)...

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newspaper_bild_on_dog_lima_as_psd_member__manipulations_bildeurofora_screenshot_400 

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=> An Obvious Result is that, in Addition to well Known Difficulties and/or UnCertainties about the Final Outcome of a still On-Going Massive Consultation of all SPD's Members on a Recent Draft Deal between ChristianDemocrats and Socialists, due to Conclude on March 2, Now, it's even the Possibility and/or Legitimacy of the Socialists to eventually participate at another "Gro-Ko" Government with the ChristianDemocrats/EPP which is at Risk :  


Since they do Not Represent, no more, all Together, but Only 47,5% of the Votes, i.e. they have practically Lost the Majority of the People, (as also mainstream "FAZ" Newspaper observes Today) !


+ It's true, however, that, at least until now, the AfD's "Alternative", with 16%, has Not Yet a clear Majority, even if it was Added to a ChristianDemocrat/CDU-CSU's 32%, according to the Latest Poll, (Comp. Supra), since they still Miss the point (with 48% all) just for 2%...


>>> Nevertheless, it's also a Fact, that, f.ex., the New ChristianDemocrat/EPP Party's Secretary Generale designate, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, has just Stressed, for the 1st Time, also Today, (i.e. the Same Day that the above-mentioned Latest Poll revealed that AfD's Rightists had just Bypassed SPD's Socialists : Comp. Supra), that: - "We can No Longer Ignore the AfD", as mainstream Medias (f.ex. "Die Welt", etc) noted, adding a call also for relevant "Discussions with the Citizens".


+ Moreover, by a Coincidence, it's also just a Few Days ago, that AfD's vice-President, and former MEP at EU Parliament in Strasbourg, Beatrix von Storch, who, speaking to Mainstream Newspaper "Welt", just After Observing the Fact that - "Currently, the GroKo (with the Socialists) has No more a Majority", (as that Poll of February 15 had already shown : Comp. Supra), she Added :


- But, "in Principle ("in Theory"), We have, Together with the CDU (ChristianDemocrats), the FDP (Liberals), and the AfD (Conservatives/Rightists), a Bourgeois-Liberal Majority (i.e. of the Right) in this Country".


- The only thing she regretted, in this regard, is that, in her view, currently "the CDU (ChristianDemocrats/EPP) is Too much at the Left", as she felt until recently.


>>> Indeed, it's an UnDeniable Fact that, Already since the Latest Elections of September 2017, the German People have clearly Voted for an Absolute Majority located at the Right side of the political spectrum, giving a Crystal-clear 56 % to the ChristianDemocrats (CDU/CSU), Rightists/Conservatives (AfD), and Liberals (FDP), taken Together, as "Eurofora" had already Observed then, (See: http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/2017germanelectionresults.html, etc).


+ And Now (on 19 February 2018), this has been Confirmed and even Extended Further, with the Latest Poll just publishd Today, (Comp. Supra), since the Right side of the political spectrum, taken all Together (CDU/CSU, FDP and AfD), holds a Majority of 57 % in the Intentions of Vote, (i.e. +1% More than what it was already since September 2017).


This is even + 3% More than what might, eventually, get Today a "Jamaica" formula, with CDU/CSU, Liberals and "Greens" (just 54 %), who already have Even notoriously Failed to Agree, soon after the Latest Elections of 9/2017.


-----------------------------------


++ In Addition, the most Recent Political Developments elsewhere in Europe, also Go in a Similar Direction to that which has Already been shown by the Historic Example of CDU's Founder, former Chancellor Adenauer, who had Leaded 2 or 3 National Governments, with his ChristianDemocrat Party being Allied to the Rightist/Conservative ("Deutsche") Party of his era, (already, as Early as since 1949-1961) :


- Indeed, as it is well known, the recent Victory in Austria of the Young ChristianDemocrat/EPP Leader Sebastien Kurz, (Comp. Kurz's Statements to "Eurofora" in Brussels at: ..., etc) was notoriously followed by a New Coalition Government formed by his Center-Right Party together with the Rightists/Conservatives of the FPÖ Party, due to take over EU's rotating Chairmanship from July 2018.


- Meanwhile, anOther Recent (mid-2017) Governemental Coalition between a Mainstream ChristianDemocrat/EPP Party and a Rightist/Conservative Party, has just Started to Chair EU's Council from January 2018, under Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, (Leader of the "Citizens for a European Development" Center-Right Party), and the Rightist Party of "Patriots", (who have Accepted, however, a Pro-European Program).


- And CoE's PanEuropean Organisation for Human Rights, Democracy and Rule of Law, is already Chaired (from November 2017 up to May 2018 included) by Denmark, whose Center-Right Government works thanks to an Agreement with the Rightists/Conservatives (who have prefered Not to get any Ministerial post, but Support that Government through theis Votes at the National Parliament).


- Moreover, CoE is due to be Chaired, Later-on, also by Finland, which has just Concluded its OSCE's Chairmanship, and notoriously has a Coalition Government including the Rightists/Conservatives.


- The Czech Republic has Recently formed a New Government under Prime Minister Babis' Neo-Conservative Party, while even the atypical Conservative President Milos Zeman has just been re-Elected.


- And, to this List, might even be Added, Soon, also Italy, after the forthcoming Elections at the Beginning of March 2018, (etc)...


-----------------------------------


+++ Even inside the German Parties, relevant Viewpoints seem to Evolve :


- F.ex., immediately After "Eurofora"'s Publication on an eventual "Bahamas"' Coalition (CDU/CSU, Liberals + AfD's Rightists) in Germany, since the attempt to broker a "Jamaica" Coalition (CDU/CSU, Liberals + "Greens") had just Failed, mainly over Differences on Mass Asylum Seekers/irregular Migrants' Issues, last November 2017, (See : http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/germanyfromjamaicatobahamascoalition.html ), AfD's vice-President Beatrix von Storch emails us her "Bericht von Berlin" NewsLetter, on the 1st of December 2017, where she Resumes her Position on an eventual CDU/CSU-Liberals+ Coalition Government, by stressing from the outset that "it's not a question of Colors" (sic ! Comp. the "Bahamas" or "Jamaica" Flag Colors' Symbolism), "but of Content and Beliefs" : There she makes it Clear that, even if there still are certain "Contradictions in Fundamental Points" between ChristianDemocrats and Conservatives/Rightists, However, AfD's "Opposition" is "Not any Obstruction at all", since it would be Willing to "Support Concrete Measures" which would serve "Germany's National Interests", in case of a CDU/CSU-based Government in the foreseable Future.


Even among the Issues that she states for Differences :


- either it's rather a matter of Degree : as in the case of "Reverse", "Not Only Stop Islamization" ;


- or it's a matter of the Past : As in the Refusal of "any Further €uro-Rescue Aid", since, Nowadays, almost All formerly Aided €uro-Area Countries have already Concluded their Programs, while in the Particular case of Greece it Ends on August 2018 ;


- if it isn't something where some Agreements might, eventually, be found : As on "Direct Democracy", where even Mainstream New French President Macron seems to have some  a priori Interesting Ideas, while also Bundestag's New President Schäuble has stressed, Earlier in Stresbourg that any possible Advance in €uroArea's Integration must Develop closer Democratic Links to EU Citizens, and, Already, EU's Lisbon Treaty, (mainly Drafted by former French President Sarkozy and Chancellor Merkel since 2007-2010), provides for some, Untapped yet, Interesting Possibilities, such as, f.ex., a Better Development of its EU "Citizens' Initiative", and/or a "Regular Dialogue" between Citizens and EU Institutions, (Article 11), which has Not yet been really Used, (etc).


 - or, in reality, a "Fake" Opposition : As that which was supposed to be on "Same Sex Marriage", where, in Fact, more than 75% of CDU/CSU MPs (including Chancellor Angie Merkel) recently Voted "Against". => Significantly, this supposed "Difference" between AfD's Conservatives and CDU/CSU's ChristianDemocrats, was Earlier Noted by Von Stock in an Article Published, apparently, Before she became Aware of "Eurofora"s above mentioned Publication, (where We Analyze the Facts showing that Merkel's Acceptance of a Bundestag Vote on "SSM", back on July 2017, was apparently Motivated by the Need to Prevent a Center-LEFT, Hostile Coalition between Socialists, Liberals, Greens and the Left, precisely Triggered by that Pretext then, and Observe that More than 75% of CDU/CSU MPs Voted "Against", while the "AfD"s Conservatives/Rightists had Not yet Entereed in the Bundestag, then). Thus, Von Storch, significantly, did Not Repeat that Claim in her Subsequently E-Mailed NewsLetter, which was Obviously Written AFTER she had a real Chance to Read the above-mentioned "Eurofora"s relevant Publication, (Comp. Supra).


+ And a Similar Phenomenon is observed even concerning, on the Contrary, the Points in which ChristianDemocrats and Conservatives/Rightists might, Possibly, Agree, according to Von Storch : F.ex.,  in her Earlier relevant Publication to a Newspaper she Cited Only the case of an eventual "Prolongation of the Suspension of Family (lato sensu) ReUnification for ... those (Foreign Mass Asylum Seekers) who are entitled Only to a Subsidiary Protection", (i.e. Not Real Political Refugees, fleeing Personal persecution for their Political Ideas/Struggle, but rather what Sarkozy had called : "War Refugees", Massively Fleeing General Conditions provoked by War Destructions, etc., to the Detriment of All Inhabitants of an area). But, in her Subsequent E-mailed NewsLetter, she Significantly Omits any such Unique Reference Only to that Issue Alone, AFTER having a real Chance to Read "Eurofora"s relevant Publication, where were Cited not only 1, but also Many and Various Other Issues of Probable Agreements between ChristianDemocrats and Conservatives/Rightists Nowadays...


----------------------------


+ Meanwhile, Chancellor Angie Merkel earlier Surprized, during an Atypical, Original Conference with Young Children in Berlin, transmitted by Radio-TV on September 2017, Month of the Latest Elections in Germany, when she Revealed that her "Favorite Prime Minister" was ... "Norway's Erna Solberg", who has, notoriously, just Won also a anOther, 2nd Election in a row, as Leader of a Governemental Coalition of her ChristianDemocrat/EPP Center-Right Party together with that Scandinavian Country's Rightists !


++ And, Today, on February 2018, the New CDU's Secretary General designate, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, that Chancellor Merkel Helped to chose, has just reprotedly Declared, after the Latest Polls revealing that AfD's Conservatives/Rightists get a Bigger Popular Support than the Socialists, (Comp. Supra), that "We canNot Ignore AfD, No More", also proposing relevant "Discussions with Citizens"...


+++ Even AfD's vice-President, Beatrix von Storch, (who is one of the few Top AfD Politicians that does Not raise any PreCondition against Chancellor Angie Merkel, personally, as Others did), in an Interview published Today (19 February 2018) by Mainstream Newspaper "Die Welt", points at a "Growing Resistance inside the CDU", (during these Times of "GroKo" in CoHabitation with the Socialists), and Particularly at "its Base".


- While, on the Contrary, just Before the September 2017 Elections,
she  had Complained to "Eurofora" in EU Parliament that, in fact, it would be "Impossible" for AfD's Conservatives/Rightis MEPs to eventually Cooperate with ChristianDemocrats/PPE because "I have Tried", but -"They doN't even Talk to us !", as she had claimed then, (Comp., f.ex. at: http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/germanyfromjamaicatobahamascoalition.html).                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Chancellor Angie Merkel has already Proven, several times, that, if really needed, she is Able to Make sudden Big Political "U-Turns", (as she did, f.ex., on Energy Issues just After 2011's Fukushima incident, etc).


And she Obviously Likes to have someone Else at her Right, so that she would really look to be near the "Center", (her favorite "Mitte"), as she managed to do, after so many years, at last, with the emerging "AfD"s Rightists.  


=> In such a Context, when People saw the Experienced and always Popular German "BundesKanzlerin", (whose CDU Party skyrockets in Polls),  ...Wear her Famous Jacket in "GREEN" Color while Heading towards Negotiations for a "Jamaica" Coalition including the "Greens", But in ..."RED" when she Negotiated with the "Socialists" for a "GroKo", while she Recently started to Wear Nowadays a ..."BLUE" version, they inevitably Wonder :

 - Are all these (Symbolic but Timely) Facts, a pure "Coincidence"  ?


- Or, Perhaps, Not ?


You Never Know, with Politics...

 

 angie_merkel_jackets_succesive_colors_eurofora_patchwork_inclueds_also_original_photos_400

 

 

(../..)


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Facing a 70% Abstention threat in 2009 Election, EU endorses EuroFora's idea for Citizens' debates on crucial EU decisions !

- Different views on "Europe's Future", should be debated among Citizens at June 2009 EU Elections, thanks to political Parties' "Manifestos", says EU Parliament's Report


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
A main idea, initiated and promoted by EuroFora's founders since 1997: the vital need to develop European Citizens' democratic right to actively participate in multilingual debates on EU decisions, is formally endorsed by the EU from 2009 !

The move is a key attempt to overcome "catastrophic" Polls which warn that only ...30% of Citizens are ready to vote in the forthcoming June 2009 EU Election !  This was revealed by EU Commission's vice-president, in charge of Communication policy, Margot Wallstrom, during a "hot" meeting of EU Parliament's Committee on Culture and Education, during the December 2008 Strasbourg session.

Wallstrom faced criticism, but also suggestions from various MEPs, naturally worried by Abstention threats which herself found even "worse" than in 1999 or 2004...

A Report on "Active Dialogue with Citizens",examined at the same time, presented some useful practical tips, on "facilitating Interviews"; etc., but also a  potentialy important call to "incorporate the conclusions of ...debates...into (EU) policies, and take into consideration the expectations that Citizens have of the EU when deciding". An amendment even implies that Citizens' participation in debates on EU decisions is a democratic "Right".

More importantly, it finds that  a Debate "on the Future of Europe", (as French President Nicolas Sarkozy has asked since 2007), would be a good idea " for the 2009 European parliamentary Elections", because "clarifying the political differences between the EU political parties would help citizens to identify themselves with, and choose between various concepts", for which "all parties (should) present their Manifesto".

A "Joint political declaration on Communicating Europe in Partnership", co-signed by "the European Parliament, Council and ... Commission", confirms that they "attach the utmost importance to improving communication on EU issues", by "enabling European citizens to exercise their right to participate in the democratic life of the Union, in which decisions are taken as openly as possible and as closely as possible to the citizens, observing the principles of pluralism, participation, openness and transparency".

This should "enable Citizens to exercise their right to express their views and to participate actively in the public Debate on European Union issues", while also "promoting the respect of multilingualism". In this regard, EU confirms its "wish to develop synergies with national, regional and local authorities as well as with representatives of Civil Society".

    It's since 1997 that a group of EuroFora's founders have officially presented a pioneer Project (then called "EIW", for "Europe in the World"), which aimed to develop Strasbourg's "Polyphonic music", by providing "Interactive information", on "main issues ... during the Decision-making process of European Organizations which engage in Transparent and Public Democratic Debates"

    This should be done, inter alia, by "exploring the potential of New Communication Tools (mainly Internet)", as well as classic-form debates, the 1997 EIW pioneer project's anounced in its "Synopsis". It was formally "accepted for evaluation" by EU Commission in Brussels in order to be examined for a grant in the framework of the "Research/Technology/Development (RTD) Programme in the field of Information Technologies", then called "ESPRIT", as a "Best Practice Pilot Project".

eiw_project_eu_program_esprit_ds_1997.._400

        But the vital, urgent Political need for EU to search new, efficient ways to reach the People and interact with European Citizens, was really felt in Brussels and elsewhere only after the unprecedented in History 1999 and 2004 Majority Abstention in EU Elections, followed by 3 "NO" in Referenda in France, the Netherlands and Ireland, on 2005 and 2008...
    In this New Political Landscape, we prepared a new, actualised and more developed version of our initial idea, in a simplified and more efficient form, thanks also to a large Experience accumulated during many years of EU/CoE/UNO Press work and Multi-lingual debates, with the New project "EuroFora" :

    On 2006 we presented in Public its main lines during Questions/Replies that we raised at two Press Conferences by EU Commission President, Jose Baroso, and mainly EU Commission's vice-President, in charge of Communication policy, Margot Wallstrom, together with EU Parliament's vice-president, Alejo Vidal-Quadras, in Strasbourg, (Videos available), and we reminded it at various brief contacts with Commissioner Wallstrom in 2007 and 2008.

    Meanwhile, a new Text was also presented for "EuroFora" Project mainly to certain Political and other personalities, at European, National or Regional/Local level, mainly in 2007, but also in 2008..

    Now, after the unexpected 2008 Irish "NO", and before the 2009 EU Elections, which are due to be of exceptionally crucial importance for Europe's Future, the moment has obviously come to launch that project, progressively, but in real practice.

    Whoever really cares for Europe and its Citizens is welcome to join, in one way or another. Only anti-European, anti-democratic, obscure or ignorant groups might oppose or attempt to "steal" and deviate the main idea.

    But European Citizens, incited by enlightened political leaders, are those who will finally write the real History.

Polls

2009 EU Elections were won by Parties against Technocracy and Turkey's controversial EU bid, while the 1999-2004 Majority Abstention trend decelerated. What should be done in 2009-2014 ?

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