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Home arrow newsitems arrow Germany : Towards a "New GRO-KO" ?!...

Germany : Towards a "New GRO-KO" ?!...

Written by ACM
Monday, 19 February 2018

*Strasbourg/Angelo Marcopolo/- After 2 "GroKo" - Big Coalition Governments with an obliged CoHabitation of ChristianDemocrats/EPP and Socialists, the German People might, perhaps, be Ready also for a 3rd "GroKo" Governemental Coalition, during the Period of 2018-2021, But... of anOther, UnExpected, even if rather Logical, entirely New Political Color ?

The Latest Polls raise the Question de facto : For the 1st Time in History, the "Socialist" Party, with Only 15,5% of the Intentions of Vote,  Falls Down even Lower than the New, Rightist "Alternative" Party (AfD), which Grows, on the Contrary, Becoming the 2nd Biggest Party Nationwide, with 16% Today.

According to that "INSA" Poll for "BILD-Zeitung", Follow the "Greens" with 13%, the Left with 11%, and the Liberals with 9%.

The ChristianDemocrats/EPP of Chancellor Angie Merkel's CDU/CSU, unlike SPD's collapse, they Grow Up to 32%.


In fact, such a Political Development did Not really came Suddenly, out of the blue : Already, several Previous Polls had Recently Revealed a Trend for Socialists to be Falling Down, at the same time that Rightists were Growing, while ChristianDemocrats remained Stable or even ameliorated, more or less, their position.

F.ex., among others  :

 - Already, as early as since January 29, the SPD had Fallen to 18%, while the AfD had Grown up to 14%, (INSA Poll).

- But it's mainly Since February 12, that Socialists Fell Dangerously Down to Only 16,5%, very Near to the Rightists, which had Grown up to 15%, i.e. with a Tiny Difference of just 1,5%... (INSA/BILD).

- This had been Confirmed, and Extended even Further, also by an INFRATEST-DIMAP Poll, Later on February 15, where  Socialists had Fallen even Lower, Down to 16%, while the Rightists had Grown up to 15%, i.e. with an even Smaller Difference of Only 1%.

=> It Seems that Martin Schultz's UnExpected Departure, Both from the SPD's Party Presidency and from a probable and logical Foreign Ministerial position in a probable "Gro-Ko" Government, has considerably Accelerated an UnPrecedented Downward Trend for the Socialists, (as well as a Growing Trend for the "Alternative" AfD Party).

Schulz, a Twice Elected former EU Parliament's President, and one among the Longest-Serving former MEPs (1993-2017), Naturally was a Normal Choice for the Mission of a New Foreign Minister at another "GroKo" Cohabitation Government of ChristianDemocrats and Socialists, where his Experience and Contacts at a Level of Heads of State/Government and Leaders of European, PanEuropean and International Organisations, could certainly be Useful Both for Germany and all Europe.

But this was Undemined by a Sudden, UnPrecedented Row, Triggered by a Personal Attack with Harsh Words in Public, mainly by the Out-Going MFA, Sigmar Gabriel, (a Short-lived Foreign Minister, where he had just Succeeded to Steinmeier's New Job as Germany's President), former SPD's Head, and apparently close to a Turkish-origin Socialist that he had Curiously Chosen himself for Minister of ..."Integration", (inevitably Fuelling AfD Rightists' Chances among the German People), as it was Noted also by many others, including, f.ex., an "Eurofora"s fan in our Forum (at: http://www.eurofora.net/forum/index.php/topic,871.0.html), and a relevant, locacious Photo published, immediately Afterwards, by "Welt" mainstream Newspaper, (etc).


Sigmar Gabriel reportedly Opened Fire 1st, by Accusing Schulz in Public to Betray his Promises and even by citting his Daughter criticizing "that guy who has Hair on his Face (sic !)"... Schulz prefered to take a Dignified stance, and Announced his Withrawal Both from that Foreign Ministry contest and from SPD Party's Leadership, claiming that this was done in order to Help the Party's Members Endorse by Voting the latest "GroKo" Deal. But his Sister, in a Press Interview which went Viral at all Medias, Fired Back by slaming most of SPD's current Top Bureaucracy in Berlin as a ... "Snake-Pit" (sic !). 





Things became Worse, also at a Citizens'-wide level, when Newspaper "BILD" Revealed, later this Evening, the UnPrecedented Scandal of a ...DOG having been Recently Registered and Officialy "Welcomed" as a full Member of the current "Socialist" Party, precisely when a Crucial Vote on extending, or not, the previous "GroKo" has just Started, among All Members of a Divided and Ailing SPD, sharply Falling in Polls particularly after Schulz's unexpected and strange Departure, (Comp. Supra). SPD's Officials, shortly Afterwards, Declared that the registered Dog (a Skiny Female named "Lima"), will be Excluded from Voting on that "Gro-Ko", but the Story went, meanwhile, Viral at the World Wide Web (UPDATED)...




=> An Obvious Result is that, in Addition to well Known Difficulties and/or UnCertainties about the Final Outcome of a still On-Going Massive Consultation of all SPD's Members on a Recent Draft Deal between ChristianDemocrats and Socialists, due to Conclude on March 2, Now, it's even the Possibility and/or Legitimacy of the Socialists to eventually participate at another "Gro-Ko" Government with the ChristianDemocrats/EPP which is at Risk :  

Since they do Not Represent, no more, all Together, but Only 47,5% of the Votes, i.e. they have practically Lost the Majority of the People, (as also mainstream "FAZ" Newspaper observes Today) !

+ It's true, however, that, at least until now, the AfD's "Alternative", with 16%, has Not Yet a clear Majority, even if it was Added to a ChristianDemocrat/CDU-CSU's 32%, according to the Latest Poll, (Comp. Supra), since they still Miss the point (with 48% all) just for 2%...

>>> Nevertheless, it's also a Fact, that, f.ex., the New ChristianDemocrat/EPP Party's Secretary Generale designate, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, has just Stressed, for the 1st Time, also Today, (i.e. the Same Day that the above-mentioned Latest Poll revealed that AfD's Rightists had just Bypassed SPD's Socialists : Comp. Supra), that: - "We can No Longer Ignore the AfD", as mainstream Medias (f.ex. "Die Welt", etc) noted, adding a call also for relevant "Discussions with the Citizens".

+ Moreover, by a Coincidence, it's also just a Few Days ago, that AfD's vice-President, and former MEP at EU Parliament in Strasbourg, Beatrix von Storch, who, speaking to Mainstream Newspaper "Welt", just After Observing the Fact that - "Currently, the GroKo (with the Socialists) has No more a Majority", (as that Poll of February 15 had already shown : Comp. Supra), she Added :

- But, "in Principle ("in Theory"), We have, Together with the CDU (ChristianDemocrats), the FDP (Liberals), and the AfD (Conservatives/Rightists), a Bourgeois-Liberal Majority (i.e. of the Right) in this Country".

- The only thing she regretted, in this regard, is that, in her view, currently "the CDU (ChristianDemocrats/EPP) is Too much at the Left", as she felt until recently.

>>> Indeed, it's an UnDeniable Fact that, Already since the Latest Elections of September 2017, the German People have clearly Voted for an Absolute Majority located at the Right side of the political spectrum, giving a Crystal-clear 56 % to the ChristianDemocrats (CDU/CSU), Rightists/Conservatives (AfD), and Liberals (FDP), taken Together, as "Eurofora" had already Observed then, (See: http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/2017germanelectionresults.html, etc).

+ And Now (on 19 February 2018), this has been Confirmed and even Extended Further, with the Latest Poll just publishd Today, (Comp. Supra), since the Right side of the political spectrum, taken all Together (CDU/CSU, FDP and AfD), holds a Majority of 57 % in the Intentions of Vote, (i.e. +1% More than what it was already since September 2017).

This is even + 3% More than what might, eventually, get Today a "Jamaica" formula, with CDU/CSU, Liberals and "Greens" (just 54 %), who already have Even notoriously Failed to Agree, soon after the Latest Elections of 9/2017.


++ In Addition, the most Recent Political Developments elsewhere in Europe, also Go in a Similar Direction to that which has Already been shown by the Historic Example of CDU's Founder, former Chancellor Adenauer, who had Leaded 2 or 3 National Governments, with his ChristianDemocrat Party being Allied to the Rightist/Conservative ("Deutsche") Party of his era, (already, as Early as since 1949-1961) :

- Indeed, as it is well known, the recent Victory in Austria of the Young ChristianDemocrat/EPP Leader Sebastien Kurz, (Comp. Kurz's Statements to "Eurofora" in Brussels at: ..., etc) was notoriously followed by a New Coalition Government formed by his Center-Right Party together with the Rightists/Conservatives of the FPÖ Party, due to take over EU's rotating Chairmanship from July 2018.

- Meanwhile, anOther Recent (mid-2017) Governemental Coalition between a Mainstream ChristianDemocrat/EPP Party and a Rightist/Conservative Party, has just Started to Chair EU's Council from January 2018, under Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, (Leader of the "Citizens for a European Development" Center-Right Party), and the Rightist Party of "Patriots", (who have Accepted, however, a Pro-European Program).

- And CoE's PanEuropean Organisation for Human Rights, Democracy and Rule of Law, is already Chaired (from November 2017 up to May 2018 included) by Denmark, whose Center-Right Government works thanks to an Agreement with the Rightists/Conservatives (who have prefered Not to get any Ministerial post, but Support that Government through theis Votes at the National Parliament).

- Moreover, CoE is due to be Chaired, Later-on, also by Finland, which has just Concluded its OSCE's Chairmanship, and notoriously has a Coalition Government including the Rightists/Conservatives.

- The Czech Republic has Recently formed a New Government under Prime Minister Babis' Neo-Conservative Party, while even the atypical Conservative President Milos Zeman has just been re-Elected.

- And, to this List, might even be Added, Soon, also Italy, after the forthcoming Elections at the Beginning of March 2018, (etc)...


+++ Even inside the German Parties, relevant Viewpoints seem to Evolve :

- F.ex., immediately After "Eurofora"'s Publication on an eventual "Bahamas"' Coalition (CDU/CSU, Liberals + AfD's Rightists) in Germany, since the attempt to broker a "Jamaica" Coalition (CDU/CSU, Liberals + "Greens") had just Failed, mainly over Differences on Mass Asylum Seekers/irregular Migrants' Issues, last November 2017, (See : http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/germanyfromjamaicatobahamascoalition.html ), AfD's vice-President Beatrix von Storch emails us her "Bericht von Berlin" NewsLetter, on the 1st of December 2017, where she Resumes her Position on an eventual CDU/CSU-Liberals+ Coalition Government, by stressing from the outset that "it's not a question of Colors" (sic ! Comp. the "Bahamas" or "Jamaica" Flag Colors' Symbolism), "but of Content and Beliefs" : There she makes it Clear that, even if there still are certain "Contradictions in Fundamental Points" between ChristianDemocrats and Conservatives/Rightists, However, AfD's "Opposition" is "Not any Obstruction at all", since it would be Willing to "Support Concrete Measures" which would serve "Germany's National Interests", in case of a CDU/CSU-based Government in the foreseable Future.

Even among the Issues that she states for Differences :

- either it's rather a matter of Degree : as in the case of "Reverse", "Not Only Stop Islamization" ;

- or it's a matter of the Past : As in the Refusal of "any Further €uro-Rescue Aid", since, Nowadays, almost All formerly Aided €uro-Area Countries have already Concluded their Programs, while in the Particular case of Greece it Ends on August 2018 ;

- if it isn't something where some Agreements might, eventually, be found : As on "Direct Democracy", where even Mainstream New French President Macron seems to have some  a priori Interesting Ideas, while also Bundestag's New President Schäuble has stressed, Earlier in Stresbourg that any possible Advance in €uroArea's Integration must Develop closer Democratic Links to EU Citizens, and, Already, EU's Lisbon Treaty, (mainly Drafted by former French President Sarkozy and Chancellor Merkel since 2007-2010), provides for some, Untapped yet, Interesting Possibilities, such as, f.ex., a Better Development of its EU "Citizens' Initiative", and/or a "Regular Dialogue" between Citizens and EU Institutions, (Article 11), which has Not yet been really Used, (etc).

 - or, in reality, a "Fake" Opposition : As that which was supposed to be on "Same Sex Marriage", where, in Fact, more than 75% of CDU/CSU MPs (including Chancellor Angie Merkel) recently Voted "Against". => Significantly, this supposed "Difference" between AfD's Conservatives and CDU/CSU's ChristianDemocrats, was Earlier Noted by Von Stock in an Article Published, apparently, Before she became Aware of "Eurofora"s above mentioned Publication, (where We Analyze the Facts showing that Merkel's Acceptance of a Bundestag Vote on "SSM", back on July 2017, was apparently Motivated by the Need to Prevent a Center-LEFT, Hostile Coalition between Socialists, Liberals, Greens and the Left, precisely Triggered by that Pretext then, and Observe that More than 75% of CDU/CSU MPs Voted "Against", while the "AfD"s Conservatives/Rightists had Not yet Entereed in the Bundestag, then). Thus, Von Storch, significantly, did Not Repeat that Claim in her Subsequently E-Mailed NewsLetter, which was Obviously Written AFTER she had a real Chance to Read the above-mentioned "Eurofora"s relevant Publication, (Comp. Supra).

+ And a Similar Phenomenon is observed even concerning, on the Contrary, the Points in which ChristianDemocrats and Conservatives/Rightists might, Possibly, Agree, according to Von Storch : F.ex.,  in her Earlier relevant Publication to a Newspaper she Cited Only the case of an eventual "Prolongation of the Suspension of Family (lato sensu) ReUnification for ... those (Foreign Mass Asylum Seekers) who are entitled Only to a Subsidiary Protection", (i.e. Not Real Political Refugees, fleeing Personal persecution for their Political Ideas/Struggle, but rather what Sarkozy had called : "War Refugees", Massively Fleeing General Conditions provoked by War Destructions, etc., to the Detriment of All Inhabitants of an area). But, in her Subsequent E-mailed NewsLetter, she Significantly Omits any such Unique Reference Only to that Issue Alone, AFTER having a real Chance to Read "Eurofora"s relevant Publication, where were Cited not only 1, but also Many and Various Other Issues of Probable Agreements between ChristianDemocrats and Conservatives/Rightists Nowadays...


+ Meanwhile, Chancellor Angie Merkel earlier Surprized, during an Atypical, Original Conference with Young Children in Berlin, transmitted by Radio-TV on September 2017, Month of the Latest Elections in Germany, when she Revealed that her "Favorite Prime Minister" was ... "Norway's Erna Solberg", who has, notoriously, just Won also a anOther, 2nd Election in a row, as Leader of a Governemental Coalition of her ChristianDemocrat/EPP Center-Right Party together with that Scandinavian Country's Rightists !

++ And, Today, on February 2018, the New CDU's Secretary General designate, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, that Chancellor Merkel Helped to chose, has just reprotedly Declared, after the Latest Polls revealing that AfD's Conservatives/Rightists get a Bigger Popular Support than the Socialists, (Comp. Supra), that "We canNot Ignore AfD, No More", also proposing relevant "Discussions with Citizens"...

+++ Even AfD's vice-President, Beatrix von Storch, (who is one of the few Top AfD Politicians that does Not raise any PreCondition against Chancellor Angie Merkel, personally, as Others did), in an Interview published Today (19 February 2018) by Mainstream Newspaper "Die Welt", points at a "Growing Resistance inside the CDU", (during these Times of "GroKo" in CoHabitation with the Socialists), and Particularly at "its Base".

- While, on the Contrary, just Before the September 2017 Elections,
she  had Complained to "Eurofora" in EU Parliament that, in fact, it would be "Impossible" for AfD's Conservatives/Rightis MEPs to eventually Cooperate with ChristianDemocrats/PPE because "I have Tried", but -"They doN't even Talk to us !", as she had claimed then, (Comp., f.ex. at: http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/germanyfromjamaicatobahamascoalition.html).                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Chancellor Angie Merkel has already Proven, several times, that, if really needed, she is Able to Make sudden Big Political "U-Turns", (as she did, f.ex., on Energy Issues just After 2011's Fukushima incident, etc).

And she Obviously Likes to have someone Else at her Right, so that she would really look to be near the "Center", (her favorite "Mitte"), as she managed to do, after so many years, at last, with the emerging "AfD"s Rightists.  

=> In such a Context, when People saw the Experienced and always Popular German "BundesKanzlerin", (whose CDU Party skyrockets in Polls),  ...Wear her Famous Jacket in "GREEN" Color while Heading towards Negotiations for a "Jamaica" Coalition including the "Greens", But in ..."RED" when she Negotiated with the "Socialists" for a "GroKo", while she Recently started to Wear Nowadays a ..."BLUE" version, they inevitably Wonder :

 - Are all these (Symbolic but Timely) Facts, a pure "Coincidence"  ?

- Or, Perhaps, Not ?

You Never Know, with Politics...









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It's important to create a synergy between "mutually stimulating" EU Countries' moves in order to overcome an "Unjust" Crisis "imported from USA", stressed new French Minister for Economic Revival, Patrick Devedjian, in Strasbourg, warning also that, while hoping for a vigorous Obama US Plan, nevertheless, "Time" is of essence for Europe...

In fact, it's EU's own interest to act Fast, before June 2009 EU Election, since, with Lisbon Treaty not ratified yet, it cannot face again the risk of a Majority Abstention, as back in 1999 and 2004, nor another "anti-EU" mood among Citizens, as in the 2005 French and Dutch "No", followed by the 2008 Irish "No", without endangering rare Historic opportunities, currently open for the EU, whose future is at stake.

From Social issues up to High-Tech Scientific Research, concrete action for Economic revival started from Strasbourg and its European dimension, for the new super-Minister Patrick Devedjian, who visited a Popular Social Housing and Infrastructure project at nearby Hagenau village, before meeting new leaders of Strasbourg's unified mega-University in a Scientific Labo at the Campus, close to EU Parliament and CoE headquarters.

Devedjian, who met also with all the spectrum of Local Political  deciders of Alsace region, close to FrancoGerman borders, wants for deeds to meet the words, in real practice, whenever politicians speak about Strasbourg and Europe's development.

Devedjan to "EuroFora" : "European coordination can act as a multiplicator by mutual stimulations"
Devedjian was questioned by "Euro-Fora" on his expectations for reciprocal effects of coordinated European plans :

- "We are living in a (European and Global) system where borders are transparent : When we take measures in France, they produce effects also in Germany, in Belgium, Italy, Spain, or other EU countries, and vice-versa. "So, we can have mutually stimulating effects between national revival Plans, if they are somehow coordinated", ..."They can augment each other's effects, acting as multiplicators and levers". "As a State stimulates Local authorities and Private business, similarly, each EU country's economic revival plan may multiply the effects of other EU countries' actions", he told us.

- "F.ex., when I visited Strasbourg University's Scientific labos, they told me that part of the renovation, funded by France, is realized by German companies located only a few Kms away from the border. Thus, the French revival plan benefits also the German economy. And vice-versa : when Germany takes certain measures, they can have beneficial effects also for French companies"

In an era of Globalisation, "nobody can close and isolate himself inside a Fish-Bowl !", he concluded.
Economy's revival starts from Strasbourg and Europe, for new French Minister Devedjian


This could be one of the reasons for which the new French Minister for Economic Stimulus chose to make his 1st visit to Strasbourg, the headquarters of European and Paneuropean Institutions, in the Franco-German river borders at the heart of Europe.

- "It was President Sarkozy's idea", he revealed, adding also fresh "support to Strasbourg's European vocation, not only with words, but also with deeds" :F.ex., the completion of a High-Speed Train network, due to stimulate fast links with Germany, Austria, Italy, Hungary and other central EU Countries.

- "This Crisis is Unjust for Europe, because it wasn't its fault". The greatest part of the "Crisis was imported from the USA, where problems are deeper than here'', in the EU. The Crisis "wasn't due to a bad managment by Europe", who was affected by problems which emerged elsewhere. That's why Europe must be united and active enough to face this challenge. said Devedjian, who has just won +5% in popularity...

- "I hope that there will be an "Obama-effect" also on Economy, and that the Plan of the New American President will be substantial enough to face this crisis, which is worse in the USA than in our area", Europe, he added.

"Economic Revival overcomes political divisions : F.ex. Strasbourg's Socialist Mayor "Ries agreed that State actions funded by Public Debt are justified during such exceptional circumstances", noted the Center-Right republican Minister.


"Zeitnot" for 2009 EU Elections ?



"My problem is Time", stressed Devedjian from the outset, at Strasbourg's University. "I have to engage 75% of funds in 2009, out of a total of 29 Billion euros", he explained later. "Monitoring will be of essence", because we must "avoid bureaucracy or delays. No project should get lost or neglected in complex meanders of adminstrative offices' moving sands", he warned.

- "I must create activities in the middle of the Crisis", he added. Questioned by EuroFora whether he aims to start creating some "hopes before the June 2009 EU Elections", Devedjian, a former leader of the Governing Political Party in France: UMP, did not immediately reply, but revealed, later, that he "hoped to start at least some Projects on May 2009, even if the bulk of Revival Plan's effects are "expected from Autumn 2009".

However, with only 30% of EU Citizens currently aiming to cast a vote at the forthcoming EU Elections on June, (See other NewStory), the  coordinated moves' results are expected to be crucial for Citizens' participation and votes at the forthcoming June 2009 EU Elections throughout all 27 EU Member Countries...Thus, it's vital for all Europe's own Future that coordinated national Economic revival plans start to have concrete results and create hopes for new dynamics before the June 2009 EU Election...

A real challenge, since careful choices are needed : Our aim is to fund projects which "create activities", even "in the middle of the crisis", and have a "lever effect, attracting other investments", Devedjian said. Because the "Stimulus' Plan has 2 aims : A Tactical one : to create New Activities. And a Strategic one : Choose what can become efficient and useful also in the Long-term". 

- "Are you ready ?", he asked Strasbourg University's new President, professor Alain Beretz, with some 700 million euros in his pockets for Education-Research in France. - "We are !", he replied.

- "The Minister's initiative can accelerate funds, and Time is important for us. This concerns the entire renovation of all our buildings", said to "EuroFora" President, Beretz. "I showed some Scientific Research Labos to Mr. Devedjian. But, If we had more time, I could show him also some Education Amphis, whose condition needs to meet Strasbourg's new Mega-University's ambition" to reach the 10 best in the World, as Prime Minister Fillon earlier anounced here.


(Devedjian kicks off his Economic Revival tour from Strasbourg University, meeting with its new chairman Beretz, at Scientific Institute Le Bel) 


Regional Prefectures should gather and select projects to be presented for decision before the end of January 2009.

A well-known close friend of President Sarkozy, who succeeded as EU Chairman to launch, in agreement with German chancelor Merkel and even British prime minister Brown, vigorous EU actions against the Financial/Economic Crisis, (starting from the 1st Historic Summit of EuroZone's Heads of State/Government, October 12 at Elysee Palace, followed by Washington G20 Global Summit), Devedjan will have a key role in the realisation of National and EU plans recently agreed in Brussels.

President Sarkozy is expected to arrive himself in Strasbourg, on the occasion of the official inauguration of its brand New Mega-Hospital, on the 9th of January 2009, at the eve of EU Parliament's session here, Elysee confirmed shortly after Devedjian's visit.

EU is due to review its economic revival plans at March 2009 EU Council in Prague, before the April 2 London Global Summit.





Multi-facet concrete activities at focus : Stimulus Minister Devedjian at the Political, Social and High-Tech fronts in Strasbourg...


2009 EU Elections were won by Parties against Technocracy and Turkey's controversial EU bid, while the 1999-2004 Majority Abstention trend decelerated. What should be done in 2009-2014 ?


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