Polls+ Markets react to Sarkozy-Merkel inspired EU deal to boost deeper €uro convergence from August

EU Citizens' Polls are booming, following Stock Markets' initially upward trend, as French President Sarkozy and German Chancellor Merkel, while also spearheading an €uroZone Summit's New Deal, appeared to make some resolute Steps towards the 2 Main Targets that the French President had described in landmark speeches in Strasbourg, both before and after his brillant 2007 Election, on February and July 2007  : The Creation of an EU Economic Governance, and the development of EU's Identity, both being conceived as integral, key parts of a "Political" Europe, away from any Bureaucratic/Technocratic domination, and closer to elected Political leaders in constant Debates with their Citizens over main decisions affecting their Future.

After getting +1% twice, during 2 consecutive Months' Polls, Sarkozy has just added even a spectacular +6% rise in Positive opinions (i.e. +8% in total) for the 3rd Month in a row, just after his former Electoral Campaign Director, and Elysee palace Secretary General, current Minister of Interior, Claude Gueant, started to stress "Integration", "Values" and "Identity" issues, as focus for Next Year's, crucial 2012 French Presidential Elections, (See also Gueant's recent Statement to "EuroFora"), due to be shortly followed also by Elections in Germany on 2013, as well as for EU Parliament on 2014.
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    -  "Before the end of August", Ambitious Plans to boost €uroZone's Economic Convergence, in order to deepen its Integration, are due to be decided and anounced jointly by the Franco-German EU motor, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angie Merkel, as they both anounced in their respective Press Conferences at the conclusion of Brussels' €uroZone Summit, which was focused on urgent measures to face the Debt on Greece, but also on the creation of general Tools able to prevent any eventual Contagion in other Countries, and to avoid other Debt Crisis by taking Timely action, as well as on €uroZone's Future.
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    - "What is at stake is our Historic Responsibility vis a vis Europe and the Common Currency : "€uro is an irremplaceable, unique EU Acquis, that we must Defend and Reinforce... "It's forbidden to fail". i.e. We are condemned to Win this Fight, strongly stressed Nicolas Sarkozy.

     - "The €uro is more than a Currency : It is a great expression of Solidarity in the EU, and an example of Deep Integration, while it also gives responsibilities to European institutions", explained Merkel.

    + This also implies that "we are Determined to Help Greece as a EuroZone Member", since "€uroZone creates Solidarity, and we can't abandon a Member if it commits itself in a Reform Program  and respects its commitments", as "we are conscious of the efforts required by the Greek People", the French President added, speaking of the "Main Political Lines" of the July 2011 €urozone Summit.
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 - Regarding both points, "'this is an Historic U-turn", stressed from the outset the French President. - "We want to make of this Crisis (about the Debt on Greece) an opportunity to ameliorate, develop, the EU Tools in EuroZone. We want to seize this Debt Crisis in Greece, as an  opportunity in order to cross a Qualitative  threshhold;towards an  €uroZone's Economic Governance"; Sarkozy declared.

Indeed, as German Chancellor Merkel also observed, €uroZone's 3rd Summit (Comp. "EuroFora"s NewsReports from the spot during the 1st and 2nd €uroZone Summits, back on October 2008 in Paris, and on March 2011 in Brussels), has not only "adopted a 2nd Package for Greece", but also "much more, well Beyond that" :

- "We have now reached an Important Stage. We have taken a significant step on the way to 2 fundamental Objectives : ...to stabilize permanently  Greece, .... and to find out our (€uroZone's) way Out of Debt, through Solidarity  and ... improved Competitiveness", as she resumed the overall decisions.
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So, "We basically did 3 things"; Merkel explained :

(A) "We have decided a New Program for Greece as a whole", where there is, "for the 1st time, also a Voluntary contribution of Private creditors".  

(B) But, "in order to keep the entire €uroZone Stable, we need additional Instruments, so that No Contagion" takes place.

(C) "Plus,  a "Closer Political Cooperation", and the Future "Stability and Growth pact", she added.
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On €uroZone's Future :
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  - Concerning the 3rd, and more Forward-looking, Strategic point, Sarkozy revealed that, "on the issue of €uroZone's Future, we spoke last Night with Chancellor Merkel, (in Berlin), and we decided that  we must advance in Economic Governance, during the Next Weeks, in an extremely Ambitious and very Voluntarist way".

 - "From now up to the Summer's End, we shall make Common Proposals on  €uroZone's Economic Governance , so that (EU) President Van Rompuy will be able to officially table certain proposals on October"'s (EU) Summit in Brussels.

- "€uroZone's Government is composed by Heads of States/Governments in 17 member Countries", and, therefore, France and Germany will make proposals "before the end of the Month of August", on €uroZone's Government by the 17 Heads of State/Gov, ..., and highlight our Vision for €uroZone's Future" :

 - This could include, f.ex.,  "the creation of a European Rating Agency, etc"; while, even if "we don't have yet an EU Monetary Fund, nevertheless, we made some progress", "and we must continue to advance in this direction", he revealed.             
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    - Prefering to better "use Credible words", such "as "Convergence", ..a word on which we worked a lot last night with Chancellor Merkel", Sarkozy stressed, in a pure "Freiburg Spirit", (from the December 2010 Franco-German Summit there : Comp. "EuroFora"s NewsReport from the spot), that "Economic Convergence,  stands in order to prepare Economic Integration".

    - "Economic Convergence, specially in terms of Competitiveness, is absolutely necessary in order to avoid Monetary Tensions, which would be, otherwise,  inevitable if we kept only a Currency without any link whatever to the Economy. Thus, Convergence is needed in order to succeed Integration", Sarkozy explained.

    - "It's on this line that we are going to work". "It doesn't mean that we shall have the same Budgets", but "we are absolutely aware of the fact that France and Germany have to be exemplary" on that, because, "France and Germany being the 2 biggest EU Countries, we have to give en exemple", he observed.
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    - "The last 15 Years (1996-2011) have made it clear" that "we must better Cooperate in Europe", and that "we must, above all, build the Right Tools for the Future",  Merkel also stressed.

    - "We made, today, an Important Step, but, for Competitiveness and Debt Sustainability everywhere, we still have to travel a distance", the German Chancellor warned.

     - "Therefore, an Important result was that the €uroGroup decided to show more flexibility for negotiations with the European Parliament, when it comes to the renewal of the Stability and Growth Pact", (as "EuroFora"s questions in EU Parliament's latest Plenary Session in Strasbourg highlighted : See relevant previous NewsReport). We have the Future Stability Pact, referred to as the "Six pack", where we now once again made the fundamental decision to negotiate with EU Parliament, where, indeed, it was quite Stuck, and make it clear that we want a Quick Deal. I am certain that we'll find, indeed, a Quick Deal", she optimistically stressed.

    + But we also "realized that.. our Economic and Fiscal Policies still need to better Coordinate with each other". "For this purpose, ...Germany and France ... will  bring together our bilateral Proposals .. at the end August / early September", and "on the October" EU Brussels' Summit, (EU President) Herman van Rompuy will make (Official) Suggestions" to all 17 €uroZone Countries, Merkel agreed with Sarkozy.
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European Monetary Fund ?
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    - Meanwhile, "we (€uroZone's Summit) already decided, at first, to create an Embryon of an EU Monetary Fund : We decided  to reinforce and make more flexible... the Mecanism that we have created some Months earlier, the EU Financial Stability Mechanism", Sarkozy anounced.

    - Thus, it "will be able to intervene even in a Preventive manner, to help a State in a Transitory Stage", (i.e. before an looming, possible Crisis becomes really effective and hard to tackle, precisely in the direction that the incoming Polish EU Presidency has recently highlighted also in Statements to "EuroFora", as a kind of "FireFighter" tool, allowing to Rapidly start to act before it becomes too or very late : See earlier Newsreport from the lateste EU Parliament's session).

    - It "could, if needed, help to ReCapitalize the Banking sector, and it can intervene in the Secondary Market of Debt, when ECB finds a problem" ! This is a considerable "Structural" Change "since we created the FSF"; the French President observed.
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    As German Chancellor Merkel explained later, in order to prevent for any undesirable "effects to skip to other counties", "we (€uroZone Summit) have taken steps to counter this very closely, by consistently making our EFSF instruments more Flexible" In addition, "this of course means that we can react in the Future much Better".

    In particular, "we will improve the Effectiveness and increase the Flexibility of the EFSF and the following ESM, in order to Prevent Contagion", she pointed out   

"There are 3 variants:

1) "a Precautionary Loan program, (i.e.) a way to ReCapitalize financial institutions'.

2) "Just when banks must be recapitalized, it is decided by the Governments, and does also include the Non-Program Countries. This is important because Attack effects can then be Contained".

3) "Then, thirdly, possible Interventions in the Secondary Market, in strict Conditionality : ECB is the institution that gives the signal. Decisions must be Unanimous. There must be an Extraordinary financial market situation. Risks to financial stability have to be there. It must be made in order to Prevent Attack effects, the so-called "Contagion"; she explained.
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    - Concerning the question of a "European Monetary Fund" (as French President Sarkozy called it), I believe that with the permanent mechanism the ESM, we have an institution that can act on a permanent basis", i.e. as the IMF", the German Chancellor admitted.

- "But there are certainly some Differences between the €uro area and the International Monetary Fund. F.ex., the did IMF does Not act on the Secondary Market, because it is not necessary, since, generally, there is No Contagion effects" at a Global level. "This means that the €uro area still has a Specificity", and "these are 2 Different things", she noted.
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+ New, Stronger Plan to tackle the Debt on Greece :
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    Concerning the well known Urgency currently existing in Greece, Sarkozy anounced "Extremely Strong Measures to reinforce the sustainability of the Debt on Greece",  i.e. "give a better chance to Greece to sort it out, by Reducing the Weight of its Debt" !
    - "Greece has a 230 Billions € GDP, i.e. 2% of €uroZone's GDP, but the Debt on Greece is ..350 Billions €, i.e., i.e. 160% of its GDP for the next 10 Years !"; " But, what we decided, allows to reduce Greece's Debt for - 12 points", he anounced

    - " We reached, last night (in Berlin) a Draft Agreement with Chancellor Merkel, that EU President Van Rompuy has succeeded to transform into an 17 Countries €uroZone deal", Sarkozy reminded.

    - In particular, it's about "Lower Rates for Future Loans from the Private sector, (i.e.) and average of 4,5% over 30 Years". I.e. about 3 to 4% for State Loans, according to Market developments, and on Private Loans, an average of 4,5% in the next 10 Years, Reducing the Debt on Greece at about  - 12%, he noted.

    - " We help Greece to reimburse by acting with Voluntarism on Rates,
through an Embryon of a European Fund, and we'll Guarantee the New Loans by the Banks with the above mentioned Rates", he promised.
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    + In addition, "while being convinced that Greece must continue to make efforts and reforms, we (€uroZone) shall also strongly help Greece to find anew a road towards Growth", Sarkozy stressed.

    - "Because, obviously, if you ask from a country to make efforts, it has also to find a way to bring Growth back, otherwise it won't sort it out".

    => This will be done mainly "with a resolute policy of Structural Funds' allocation in the service of Greece's Competitiveness", the French President anounced, (apparently developing further an idea earlier proposed also by EU Commission's President Jose Barroso, as he had suggested at a Press Conference concluding an earlier EU Brussels' Summit  : Comp. "EuroFora"s previous NewsReports from Brussels).     
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    + It's, indeed, "very important"  that we (€ureoZone Summit) discussed a Plan  ...to Strengthen  Growth in Greece. It will provide technical support", and  "help, wherever necessary", added German Chancellor Merkel on the same point.     

    - "'It will, first of all, ensure that Greece's Structural Funds can finally be really used, even with Better conditions for their own Co-Financing, (i.e. f.ex. by rising EU's part to more than 75% or even 80%, so that Greece's part becomes less costly than before), so that there will be no reason not to absorb those EU Funds", she observed.

     - "We want to make our contribution to that effort in the direction of Growth, in order to ensure that the Greek government is using all available means towards Growth, Jobs, f.ex. improving Education, in order to improve its overall Competitiveness", Merkel noted on a point of particular interest for her policies.

    + "In turn, the EU Commission, the IMF and individual member countries, as well as the adopted Program, are of great Technical support for Greece  when it comes to introducing, implementing and improving Competitiveness", the German Chancellor found.

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 => Therefore, "about Greece, our (€uroZone's) Hope is that its Plan succeeds, so that Greece finds anew a Growth and Reimburses us, so that there will Not be any Cost !" , Sarkozy replied to a question about how much might cost this plan.

    - "It's almost as an earlier French Plan to support Banks, (during the 2008-2009 Global Crisis triggered in the USA). At that time, there were a lot of Debates about how much it was going to cost. But, finally, it brought 2 Billions 400 Millions € of .. Gains to the French Peopl !" Sarkozy reminded.

     - "The Cost of a Plan is better seen when it Ends. And the point about the Plan for Greece is for Greece to succeed, and we give it the means to do so.  Thus, it's after the 1st Stage of this Plan, in about 3 Years, that it will be better to Reply accurately to this question, because it's difficult to say now how much it might, eventually cost", the French President observed.

    - "The only thing that we could say Now, is how much we may Advance in this Plan".

    - But, "there is also a question about the ReCapitalisation of Greek Banks", since, "according to the reactions of the Markets, there might, perhaps, be this or that event, which could incite the European Fund to take part into refunding Greek Banks. Because, naturally, Greek Banks must be able to work. But we cannot anticipate. However, we don't exclude a Re-Funding action by the FSF, (as it's officially anounced in today's Communiqué), if necessary".

    - Therefore, "what we can say now is that there is a mass of Money, about 100 Billions, but, during the coming Days we'll be able to adjust the various sub-divisions inside the global envelope", he carefuly avoided more concrete details.

    In fact, this is an issue related to the so-called "Private Sector Contribution", exclusively for the Debt on Greece :
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Private Sector Participation
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    - Notoriously, it was mainly "Debates on Private Sector's Participation, technically complicated and politically difficult", which almost monopolized the greatest part of the Debates, Sarkozy observed.

    - "We spoke with Private Banks, both last Night (in Berlin) and Today (in Brussels), because the Debt on Greece is held both by Public and Private Banks".

    - The €uroZone Plan on Private Banks' Contribution  "is based on a Voluntary basis, but this doesn't exclude a Discussion : We (€uroZone States) are making an effort, everyone must make an effort, and we must ensure that all this is coherent".

    - "As it's well known, Germany wanted a participation of the Private sector, but the CEB didn't want that, because it was afraid of its eventual consequences. So that we {€uroZone Summit) had to find a Compromise".   

    - "France was very much involved in efforts to find that kind of compromise, which was found last night (in Berlin). And we had to take into account also the difficulties of all" EuroZone Members, as well as to "ensure that all had understood well" what was proposed, "and that wasn't always simple".   

 - So, we had 7 Hours of discussion" in Berlin, (up to 3 or 4 earluy Morning !), and, afterwards, some 10 Hours of Discussions" in Brussels, Sarkozy revealed.

    - "On the Private Sector, Negociations were concluded, may be not on all details, f.ex. Bank by Bank, Loan by Loan,  but the Great Lines and the Principle were agreed".

      - "Of course there is a Political Vision, but this is concretely crystalised in Numbers; the Debt on Greece is 160% of its GDP :  It has a GDP of 230 Billions € GDP, and a Debt of 350 Billions €", he observed...
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    >>>" Greece is a Special case. Therefore, ...the contribution of the Private creditors applies for Greece in its Particular situation", noted later Merkel.

    - In particular, we (€uroZone States) "will provide a net (Public) contribution of 37 Billions € to fund Greece in the period 2011-2014, and of 106 Billions € in the period 2011-2019"

    + "If we add the Private participation, through a Debt Buyback program, then we come to 12,6 Billions € as a contribution of private creditors to the overall program, so that we arrive, for the period 2011/14, up to 50 Billions €" in all, she explained.

     - In the "Private Creditors' Contribution", among "Various Options", "including overdue loans", are "several things, various Options, .. such as an Exchange of Bonds into New bonds with a Maturity of 30 years, with an unchanged nominal Amount", or, "Alternatively, in a bond with a Reduced notional Amount and Shorter duration, f.ex. 15 Years", (etc); Merkel observed.
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    Replying to a Question on an eventual "Partial Default" for Greece, the French President stressed that he "would Not use this Wording". Simply, "for Greece to be able to reimburse its Debt, we prolonge its Duration and lower the Rates, the Private Sector contributing to do so", Sarkozy explained.

    - Afterwards, Rating Agencies or anyone else can say what he likes. But Greece will pay its Debt, and we (€uroZone) act to Lower Rates, and prolonge its Duration". Moreover, "there will be Guarantees for the Private Sector which will give such Loans to Greece", he added. (See also Infra, about Merkel's observations on that point).

    + "We also strongly declare that, what we are doing for Greece won't be done for other" Countries, Sarkozy clearly exluded.

    Indeed, that particular "question on Rates Quest is Exclusively limited to Greece, No other Country", he stressed.

    + Indeed, the so-called "Contagion" issue kept us busy for a while, both between France and Germany, as well as vis a vis the other €uroZone Countries.  It wasn't easy, but we had to find the Right Way, amidst Gaps on both sides, it had to be extremely accurate"; he aditted.

    - Thus, "for the other 2 Countries, (needing €uroZone's help), Portugal and Ireland, we are going to lower Rates, and extend the maturity of Loans by the European Monetary Fund, (almost as for Greece),  but we Exclude the Participation of the Private Sector : That's Not for them", Sarkozy explained.

    - On the 1st out of these 2 points, "the reason for which we lower Rates for them too, is that there can't be different rates, unless to claim that a country which respected its commitments should have, nevertheless, a Higher Rate, but that would obviously be an Injustice", he observed..

    - "But the EU Fund will continue working for all €uroZone Countries on Other Issues", he added.

    - "However, the Private Sector's involvement, we do it only for Greece, but not for any other Country".  It's, indeed, "Important" to note that, "what we do for Greece, we shall Not do for any Other €uroZone member. Because, in this Sustainability issue, what is at stake is the "Contagion". That's why, we (€uroZone) clearly say that Greece is a Specific case, so that what we do for Greece, we won't do for any other Country. That's  an extremely firm Political Choice", Sarkozy stressed.
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- To the question, why a previous €uroZone decision wasn't enough, and what guarantees that, this time, the measures decided will be sufficient,  he reminded that, a few Months ago, IMF had said that the Debt on Greece would be sustainable. But the Markets (i.e. Rating Agencies) decided otherwise. Now,  what makes us firmly believe that, this time, the new Plan will work, is the fact that, with such Rates (i.e. so Low), we give every Chance to Greece", he estimated.

 - "Because it's as if FSF gave loans to Greece at the Same Rates with which it finds funds for itself, so that it uses the maximum it can do", as a lending facility, he noted in concludion.

"EuroFora" understands that, obviously this logical assumption implies that the Greek Government of Mr. Giorgos Papandreou would use these Loans mainly in efficient Economic Projects, able to create enough Growth, and therefore, Public Revenues, in order to become able to pay back the debts on time.

On the contrary, this would be, naturally, incompatible with any eventual Waste of all that €uroZone Money (as in the Past) only in order to continue paying Salaries, Retirement schemes, Primes, etc. to a notoriously excessive Mass of Cushy Job holders and other Lackeys in the Public Sector, including Media, etc., who have already usurpated too much Public Money (provoking a growing Debt since the 1980ies) all the way long through the entire last 3 Decades : 1980-2010+, particularly those which were notoriously marked by Clientelism, Corruption, Nepotism and other Abuses...

But, since this last Risk is obvious (Comp. also Prime Minister Giorgos Papandreou's 1st relevant Statements in Reply to "EuroFora" Question, right from the start of his 1st EU Summit in Brussels, back on December 2009, already), then, €uroZone's Economic Efficiency legitimate requirements, paradoxically, could only find a real Hope to be fulfilled, if it used as a Socio-Political Ally, the currently growing Popular Movement of independent Citizens' Massive Demonstrations at Syntagma square and elsewhere throughout all Greece, which include a strong Criticism of the State Authorities' induced Corruption and oppressive Nepotism, as well as People's calls for a "Purge" against all Corrupted Nepotists in the Greek State and Media, without any Time Limit, i.e. from the re-establishement of Democracy, back on 1974, throughout the 1980ies and 1990ies, as well as after 2000...

F.ex., Efficient Investigations should open, without any Time limit, so that, whoever is holding a Public Sector post, totally or partially, without doing a Productive activity, or without Deserving that, or abusing of that in order to get illegitimately enriched, and/or to serve illegitimate interests of those who gave hilm/her  that job, should be immediately fired and/or fined, condemned to return the money he usurpated and/or compensation for the abuses committed and their Victims, etc, with interest rates for the time elapsed. to be calculated according to the gravity of the abuses committed by the culprits, (naturally, independently  of any eventual Crimininal procedure).

Already, even some mainstream Political Parties of the Opposition, have officially proposed to launch systematic Investigations for any Corruption and/or other unlawful enrichement, by any Political responsibility post in the Greek State, since the 1974-2011 period of the re-establishement of Democracy in modern Greece. But, in order to be both economically Efficient, and to serve People's thirst for Justice, this should obviously be extended also to any other individual to whom a parcel of State, Public Enterprise or Public Media, etc. responsibility was unduly entrusted, and/or he/she abused of it, to the detriment of the General Interest of the Society.
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Meanwhile, as German Chancellor Merkel also observed, shortly after Sarkozy's Press Conference in Brussels, reacting to a question concerning, in particular, the total of estimated Private creditors' loss, (that some might call "selective default" for the "1st time in €uro area"),  Merkel perefered to carefully, but calmly reply that " the Rating Agencies will look at all this".

- But, now "we [€uroZone) have a Secure Framework, in which we can Act", and this stands "on Solid ground", the German Chancellor observed.

Because, for "debt Sustainability, the Contributions of the Private Creditors are extremely Important". "I Welcome this Voluntary contribution of the Banks"; as  "the Right Signal at a Difficult time. It is therefore an important signal", the German Chancellor pointed out.

Therefore,  "this will also be taken into account into the Evaluations by the Markets ", she concluded.