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Haupt arrow newsitems arrow EU's Almunia to EuroFora on Eco Stimulus plans, before London G-Summit : Keep the Rules or Opt-out !

EU's Almunia to EuroFora on Eco Stimulus plans, before London G-Summit : Keep the Rules or Opt-out !

Geschrieben von ACM
Wednesday, 25 March 2009
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    EU Commissioner on Economy and Finance, Joachin Almunia, replying to 3 "EuroFora" questions in Strasbourg before next week's London Global Summit, made it clear that all EU Member States must, more or less, respect EU Rules on the Monetary Stability Pact when they draft their Economic Stimulus policies, unless they want to "Opt-out" of EuroZone, as the UK has already done...

  Several EU Countries must correct imbalances in rather strict Time deadlines, and this is not an  "impossible task", but "a very possible and attainable task", as Almunia told us. But it's only the UK which could practically ignore EU's calls, "because of the Opt-out they have"....                                                                                                                                           

acm_3_questions_to_eu_commissioner_almunia_02 

       The issue got a larger, EU-wide and even Global Political dimension, one day later at EU Parliament, when USA's new President, Barack Obama's call on Europe to augment Spending against the Economic Crisis at the eve of G-20 Summit, was considered by some EU officials, (as EU chair, Czech Prime Minister Topolanek or EU Commission's President Baroso, etc), as partly deviant to Euro-Zone rules of the EU, whose priority now seems to be a new, multi-polar agreement on the Regulation of World's Financial Markets, to avoid similar abuses and crisis in the Future.  

 Even if he appeared as partly sparing for the moment some of EU's driving forces, as France or the UK, Spain, etc, who got more Time than others, Almunia stressed that, as a matter of principle, all EU Member States should comply with the same rules, applied according to the particular situation of each one of them.


        The results of EU Commission''s check on 5 EU Countries : France, the UK, Spain, Greece, Ireland and Cyprus, gave, at first, an impression to some that a "difference" was made "between EU Countries", as an Italian journalist said.

        F.ex. paradoxically, Greece seems to have, in comparison, some better indicators than other EU Countries checked this week :

    * Deficit in Greece, after reaching 3,7% of GDP in 2007, is estimated at 3,7% in 2008, over 3% in 2009, and exceeding 4% in 2010, according to EU Commission's forecast, (while the Greek Government tabled on just 3,2%). Only Cyprus does better, with a lower deficit than the threshhold of 3%.

    France comes next, whose deficit aims for 2009 and 2010 were revised upwards at 5,6% and 5,2%. In Spain, it's expected to arrive at 6,2% in 2009 and 5,7% in 2010.

    But in the UK, Deficit estimates mount at ..9,5% in 2009/10. In Ireland, the deficit already reached 6,3% in 2008, and is expected to rise up to 11% in 2009, and 13% in 2010 !

(../..)

 

    * On Growth, Greece "has a higher percentage ..than the EU average", observes EU Commission : "Real GDP Growth reached +4% in 2007, before decelerating at +3% in 2008", the year of the Global Crisis, revealing that "Greece enjoyed a Good Economic period in 2007 and 2008".


    In the other 5 EU Countries, Growth figures are less good, for the moment : Cyprus, after a +1% Growth in 2008, may fall in recession in 2009 with -1%. In Spain, after a + 1,2% GDP Growth in 2008, estimates give a - 2% contraction in 2009. In France, after a +2,2% GDP Growth in 2007, the 2008 estimate was +0,7%. But Ireland's GDP decreased - 2% since 2008. And for the UK, EU Commission forecasts a "sharp contraction" all over 2008-2010.

    - Despite that, Almunia asked  from Greece "to bring the deficit down from 3%" as soon as in 2010, and wants to see efficient measures on October !  And Cyprus is asked to "stop" its Stimulus plan "next year".

    On the contrary, from Spain and France he asks results only in 2012, i.e. 2 Years later, and from Ireland in 2013, i.e. 3 Years later. As for the UK, Almunia replied to "EuroFora"'s question by asking measures only .."when the revival of the economy will allow"...

    This difference made some Journalists (from Italy, France, etc) suspect some kind of "differenciation" between EU Countries :

    - "This gives the impression that there might be a Difference inside the EU between some Big Countries, which get more Time, and some Small Countries, which are asked to comply with Stricter rules", criticized an Italian Journalist.

    - "In Greece, the estimated Deficit is Lower then in the other countries, while Growth also continues". On the contrary, "in Ireland, the Deficit is much Higher, and is due to worsen, because there are more pesimistic forecasts on Growth, with a faster and larger Downfall of production", Almunia replied.

"In Spain and France, the deficits are between Greece's and Ireland's", while revival is still awaited.  Thus, "we (EU Commission) dont' ask the same things" in the other 3 countries as in Greece, which "can move faster".

    But, in fact, the real cause of this otherwise astonishing difference, seems to be an "old problem of  Debt, which exists since Many Years from the Past" (i.e. since previous governments, before 2004), as "EuroFora" asked Almunia, who did not deny : The problem in Greece clearly is that it inherited from the past a gross public Debt which "remained at 98,4% of GDP in 2007", diminished a bit in 2008 (94,6%), but is estimated to grow at 96%in 2009 and 98%in 2010, according to EU Commission's data.

    On the contrary, in Ireland the Debt was only 40,6% of GDP in 2008, and wouldn't breach the 60% reference before 2010. In Spain it's 40,3% in 2008, and 53% for 2010. In the UK it's expected to rise to 70% in 2013/14. In France it's estimated at 67,1% in 2008 and 73,9 in 2009, 77,5% in 2010.

    - "Why this Acceleration in Greece ? It's not only because it has less deficit, and not only because it has a Positive Growth percentage, and, thus, can act earlier, with accessible measures". "But also because there are 2 Facts on which is needed the utmost Care, during this period of (Global Crisis) : An  External Imbalance, with a  big and persisting Current Accounts' Deficit, and also a very big level of Debt, compared to its GDP", Almunia added

    However, the EU Commissioner looked optimist in reply to an "EuroFora"'s question if he believed that "such an old problem, which exists since many years, could be settled in 1 year" :

    - "It's not an impossible task. It's a very possible and attainable task", replied Almunia to our question, reminding that "in a previous occasion", when "Greece had received a recommendation for the correction of an excessive deficit, ..it was corrected", between 2005 and 2007. .And "the Greek Government is convinced that, for their own interest, not only because they want to comply with the EU framework, but for the interest of the Greek Economy, this correction of the deficit is warrant".

    But even Cyprus, whose Debt, estimated at only "49.3% of GDP in 2008, is projected to decline to 44.2% of GDP in 2012", is advised to stop its Economic Revival Plan in 2010, in order to prevent risks imbalances in the future, because of the current Global Crisis' environment.  Asked by "EuroFora" to "explain, in a crystal-clear way", why Cyprus, with a lower deficit than the 3% threshhold and a diminishing debt, according to EU Commission, should take Restrictive Measures now, Almunia focused on the Crisis' impact :

    - "In the case of Cyprus, we (EU Commission) consider that the Fiscal Stimulus should not continue Next Year (in 2010)", he confirmed. Because "we think that the figures on the Economy of Cyprus from 2009 to 2012, ..can become a little bit worse, given the evolution of the (Global) economic Environment". And "Cyprus' Pulic Finances, over the Long term, have problems of Sustainability : We have analyzed that in the Past, and the situation has not changed from the Structural point of view". "At the same time, as Greece, it has a Current Account Deficit, and in this moment, in this (Global) Crisis, the persistence of a current accounts deficit is an important macroeconomic imbalance, that requires the contribution of adequate fiscal policy to be corrected".

    In other words, in itself, nothing new...

    In contrast, UK's particular situation among the 5 EU Countries checked, revealed more clearly the main issue :

    The EU Commissioner was asked by "EuroFora" to explain the "strange example given to other Countries" by the UK, where, despite some negative figures (see above), even if the measures earlier advised by the EU were "not taken", and a Time "Deadline wasn't met", EU Commission does nothing else than simply .. issue a new recomendation, advising again to take more such measures and ..postponing the Time Deadline for later.

    After insinuating that "the UK case", might not be the right, but a "bad example" for other EU Countries, Almunia admitted that he asks from London to simply "correct the imbalances..... as soon as possible, once the recovery will come back" !

    But he explained "the repetition of recommendations in the case of the UK", by observing that "we (EU) cannot go beyond this step, because of the Opt-Out they have"....

    However, it's the "own interest of the British Economy to correct" that, he concluded.
 
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    Indeed, some MEPs  teased, the same day, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, (who visited Strasbourg to discuss the preparation of the forthcoming Global London Summit), for keeping too many "Opt-Outs" from EU Rules, as fex. the Leader of "Greens/ARE" Group, Italian MEP Monica Frassoni. Going even further British Liberal MEP Graham Watson, leader of the "Liberal/Democratic" Group, launched a call for UK's entry to the EuroZone !..
    
    More pragmatic, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, has already declared that it seems always possile and desirable to forge a special status for the UK to get together with EuroZone. Thus, he reminded the useful, even if partial, participation of Gordon Brown to the decisions taken by the 1st, Historic EuroZone's Heads of State and Government Summit, in Paris, on October 12, 2008, which was the first to be succesful in starting to make Stock Markets move in a positive direction.
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Facing a 70% Abstention threat in 2009 Election, EU endorses EuroFora's idea for Citizens' debates on crucial EU decisions !

- Different views on "Europe's Future", should be debated among Citizens at June 2009 EU Elections, thanks to political Parties' "Manifestos", says EU Parliament's Report


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
A main idea, initiated and promoted by EuroFora's founders since 1997: the vital need to develop European Citizens' democratic right to actively participate in multilingual debates on EU decisions, is formally endorsed by the EU from 2009 !

The move is a key attempt to overcome "catastrophic" Polls which warn that only ...30% of Citizens are ready to vote in the forthcoming June 2009 EU Election !  This was revealed by EU Commission's vice-president, in charge of Communication policy, Margot Wallstrom, during a "hot" meeting of EU Parliament's Committee on Culture and Education, during the December 2008 Strasbourg session.

Wallstrom faced criticism, but also suggestions from various MEPs, naturally worried by Abstention threats which herself found even "worse" than in 1999 or 2004...

A Report on "Active Dialogue with Citizens",examined at the same time, presented some useful practical tips, on "facilitating Interviews"; etc., but also a  potentialy important call to "incorporate the conclusions of ...debates...into (EU) policies, and take into consideration the expectations that Citizens have of the EU when deciding". An amendment even implies that Citizens' participation in debates on EU decisions is a democratic "Right".

More importantly, it finds that  a Debate "on the Future of Europe", (as French President Nicolas Sarkozy has asked since 2007), would be a good idea " for the 2009 European parliamentary Elections", because "clarifying the political differences between the EU political parties would help citizens to identify themselves with, and choose between various concepts", for which "all parties (should) present their Manifesto".

A "Joint political declaration on Communicating Europe in Partnership", co-signed by "the European Parliament, Council and ... Commission", confirms that they "attach the utmost importance to improving communication on EU issues", by "enabling European citizens to exercise their right to participate in the democratic life of the Union, in which decisions are taken as openly as possible and as closely as possible to the citizens, observing the principles of pluralism, participation, openness and transparency".

This should "enable Citizens to exercise their right to express their views and to participate actively in the public Debate on European Union issues", while also "promoting the respect of multilingualism". In this regard, EU confirms its "wish to develop synergies with national, regional and local authorities as well as with representatives of Civil Society".

    It's since 1997 that a group of EuroFora's founders have officially presented a pioneer Project (then called "EIW", for "Europe in the World"), which aimed to develop Strasbourg's "Polyphonic music", by providing "Interactive information", on "main issues ... during the Decision-making process of European Organizations which engage in Transparent and Public Democratic Debates"

    This should be done, inter alia, by "exploring the potential of New Communication Tools (mainly Internet)", as well as classic-form debates, the 1997 EIW pioneer project's anounced in its "Synopsis". It was formally "accepted for evaluation" by EU Commission in Brussels in order to be examined for a grant in the framework of the "Research/Technology/Development (RTD) Programme in the field of Information Technologies", then called "ESPRIT", as a "Best Practice Pilot Project".

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        But the vital, urgent Political need for EU to search new, efficient ways to reach the People and interact with European Citizens, was really felt in Brussels and elsewhere only after the unprecedented in History 1999 and 2004 Majority Abstention in EU Elections, followed by 3 "NO" in Referenda in France, the Netherlands and Ireland, on 2005 and 2008...
    In this New Political Landscape, we prepared a new, actualised and more developed version of our initial idea, in a simplified and more efficient form, thanks also to a large Experience accumulated during many years of EU/CoE/UNO Press work and Multi-lingual debates, with the New project "EuroFora" :

    On 2006 we presented in Public its main lines during Questions/Replies that we raised at two Press Conferences by EU Commission President, Jose Baroso, and mainly EU Commission's vice-President, in charge of Communication policy, Margot Wallstrom, together with EU Parliament's vice-president, Alejo Vidal-Quadras, in Strasbourg, (Videos available), and we reminded it at various brief contacts with Commissioner Wallstrom in 2007 and 2008.

    Meanwhile, a new Text was also presented for "EuroFora" Project mainly to certain Political and other personalities, at European, National or Regional/Local level, mainly in 2007, but also in 2008..

    Now, after the unexpected 2008 Irish "NO", and before the 2009 EU Elections, which are due to be of exceptionally crucial importance for Europe's Future, the moment has obviously come to launch that project, progressively, but in real practice.

    Whoever really cares for Europe and its Citizens is welcome to join, in one way or another. Only anti-European, anti-democratic, obscure or ignorant groups might oppose or attempt to "steal" and deviate the main idea.

    But European Citizens, incited by enlightened political leaders, are those who will finally write the real History.

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2009 EU Elections were won by Parties against Technocracy and Turkey's controversial EU bid, while the 1999-2004 Majority Abstention trend decelerated. What should be done in 2009-2014 ?

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