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Inicio arrow newsitems arrow German People voted : Crystal-clear Absolute Majority to the Right + 56 % !

German People voted : Crystal-clear Absolute Majority to the Right + 56 % !

Escrito por ACM
24.09.17
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*Strasbourg/Angelo Marcopolo/- Just after Norway, even stronger in Germany, Democracy spoke this September 2017 : The German People gave a Crystal-clear Absolute Majority to the Right with more than + 56 % of the Votes in the National Election for the New Parliament of 2017-2021.


Indeed, the 3 Parties located at the Right side of the Political spectrum, from the Center-Right "Liberals" (10,5%), the Right of "ChristianDemocrats"/EPP (33%) and the Rightists of the "Alternative" (13,2%), all together succeeded to attract, undeniably, a very Big Absolute Majority for the New Bundestag in Berlin, with Even much More Votes than the equivalent parties in Norway, just a few Days Earlier, (Comp.: ...).

 

In terms of Elected MPs, this gives 420 MPs, i.e. + 65 More than what is required for an Absolute Majority (just 355), which is the Highest Number of MPs from All theoretically possible Coalitions among Various Parties in Germany Today :


F.ex. Socialists again with the ChristianDemocrats would just have +44 MPs margin (i.e. - 21 Less than All the Right) ; while a "Jamaica" color group where ChristianDemocrats and Liberals might go with the "Greens", would have only +38 MPs margin (i.e. - 27 Less than All the Right); and Any Other Combination would Fall into a Minority, Lacking from - 29 MPs Less than necessary in order to Govern (f.ex. CDU + FDP), Down to - 66 MPs Less than what is required, (f.ex. an "All Left" grouping with Socialists, Leftists and Greens, which would be the Weakest).       

                                                                                
In Fact, the "Number 1" Winner, i.e. a new Coalition of All the Right (Comp. Supra), would Also be the most Democratic solution, comparatively, since the "ChristianDemocrats" still remain the 1st Political Party of Germany, while the "Liberals" and the "Alternative" are, Today, the Only 2 Parties who Win Many Votes : + 6% and + 8,5% respectively, (while all the Others either Loose or Stagnate) - among whom, the latter ("AfD" = "Alternative für Deutschland") Wins the Most new votes of the German People.


Such a possible Unity of the Right would even be More "Natural", from the point of view of the People, since Polls reveal that there is a "Continuum", a "Flux" of Voters from the "ChristianDemocrats" towards the "Liberals" and to the "Alternative", Each of whom Receives more than +1 Million Voters from the CDU/CSU this time, (while the "AfD/Alternative" gets also some + 500.000 Votes from the "Socialists" too).


On the Contrary, the German People clearly Refused another "Gro-Ko", since Both the 2 Biggest Parties (CDU + PSD) Lost a lot of Votes now, (and the Socialists appeared Tonight Eager to go to the Opposition, after Risking to Fall even Lower than 20%). As for the Left side of the Political Spectrum, its 3 Parties have Only a net Minority (Comp. Supra).


Chancellor Angie Merkel, as the Leader of what still remains, by far, the 1st (Biggest) Political Party in Germany, CDU/CSU's "ChristianDemocrats", obviously got Today a new clear "Mandate" from the German People to try to form her New Government, according also to Today's Vote Results :


- As she reportedly Resumed the Situation : - It was Hard, but we (CDU/CSU) have got a Mandate. While Nobody could Govern against us, she observed in substance.


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Liberals

(+ W. Schäuble's best role)
------------------------------------------------


Concerning the 2nd Best possibility (Comp. Supra) : that of a "Jamaica" Coalition between ChristianDemocrats, Liberals and the Greens, even if Interesting, it seems, Nowadays, to have More Problems than Initially thought in the Past (See Infra) :


- F.ex., the Liberals, inter alia, have also stressed that they absolutely want to have Not the Foreign Ministry, as it was usual in the Past, but the Ministry of Finances, where the Most Popular Politician of Germany, the ChristianDemocrat Wolfgang Schäuble, has notoriously done a Good Job for the German Economy, (for the 1st Time since the 1960ies withOut any Debt !), and in great part also for the rest of the EU.

Many German a.o. Medias speculated, these Days, about what exactly Might be Schäuble's Next Political Task : Hypothesis published Nowadays, oscillated between f.ex., the Foreign Ministry, or the Presidency of the Bundestag (as the Good Norbert Lammert curiously chose retirement), etc.

Inter alia, in particular, Schäuble's recent Call to "Prevent an East - West Division" (See: ..), could, f.ex. be developed both Inside Germany (given Today's Differencies even of Votes, between German Regions),, and in Foreign Policy, (f.ex. with "Visegrad" Countries, as Hungary, Poland, Czechia, etc., particularly on the "Burning" Issue of Mass Migration via Turkey, etc), as well as on relevant EU Policies, (Comp. Infra).


And its true that Schäuble, initially chosen by the Historic former Long-Time German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, as Director of his Office, (i.e. an Overview-providing Top Job), then JHA Minister, Negotiator for the ReUnification of Germany, Head of the Governing CDU/CSU's Parliamentary Group, Top Minister of JHA or Finances, at a Crucial period of €uroArea, and when Many notoriously Expect that it might Advance towards creating the Foundations of a possible EU's more Integrated and Stronger Core, with More Instruments and even a Security/Defense policy, etc., could also Serve in Various Other Top Jobs :
 
-  From a projected Job of EU's "Minister" for €uroArea, to Future EU Parliament's President After the 2019 EU Elections, or even that New Job in a Future "Unified" Presidency of Both EU Commission and Council, (as Juncker recently Proposed, at EU Parliament in Strasbourg, while also Announcing, curiously, that he does Not intend to be Candidate personally), etc., a possible List may be Long...


----------------------------------------------------
"Jamaica" Coalition => + "Greens" ?
---------------------------------------------------------------


+ As for the "Greens", they already Govern, Together with ChristianDemocrats/EPP, at the Level of the neighbouring, Federated "Länder" of Baden-Wurttemberg, as well as, Recently, at Nord-Rhein-Westfalia (NRW : in the middle of 2017), in the past at Hessen, etc, according to an Idea suggested by "Eurofora" from 2010 (See, f.ex.: ...), and apparently Supported, in Theory, also by Pope Emeritus Benedict, particularly with his Landmark Theory on "Human Ecology", that he had Highlighted at the German Bundestag during his 2011 Official Visit, (comp.: ...).

But, this had been initialy Motivated by a Hope to Tackle strong BioEthical Issues, Crucial Today for Humankind's Future, (Comp. Pope Emeritus Benedict's 2009 landmark Encyclic "Caritas in Veritatis" at : ..., and "Eurofora"'s relevant Publications at : .... +...., etc), which have, Recently, been, Unfortunately, Bypassed, for a lage Part : F.ex. by "GroKo" Deals with the Socialists about Genetic Tests on Humans (from 2013), and/or the latest, surprisingly Hasty, 30/6/2017 Imposal of "Same Sex Marriage" between Homosexuals, including even Submission of Children to Homosexual Strangers under Pretext of "Adoption", etc., which provoke Risks for Shady Technocratic a.o. Lobbies to eventualy Take Control over Artificial Techniques for Procreation of Human Beings, Dangerous for all Humankind), etc.

While the Latter, still remains to be Checked by the German Constitutional Court, at nearby Karlsruhe, nevertheless, several Other Topical BioEthical Issues also Remain to be Tackled, such as the Atrocious Exploitation of "Surrogate Mothers", the Risk to Spread "Artificial Procreations of Human Beings", etc., as well as various, gallopîng Techniques of Genetic Manipulations on Animals and/or Foodstuffs, (f.ex. Plants, etc), but also growing Dangers of "TransHumanism", etc., where eventual cooperation might sustain the initial Stake on BioEthics (Comp. Supra).


------------


However, a Different Issue might be the Fact that, according to Polls, a "Jamaica"
Coalition (CDU - FDP - Greens) would Not be yet Popular enough : On the Contrary, a Majority seems to be Against, (particularly among ChristianDemocrats and Greens), leaving Only a Skin-Thin Majority of Liberals to Stand for it...                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      


+ And the new President of the North Rhein - Westphalia Länder (NRW), Amin Laschet, reportedly believes "Jamaika" to be a quite "Difficult" matter, particularly because, for him, he Number 1 Issue (especially for his region) would rather be to Boost Industry, (i.e. even there whee the "Greens" might Hesitate or be Opposed).


++ But, More Problematic is the Topical, "Hot" Issue of Mass Migration : The "Liberals" have Recently become Strongly Critical vis a vis the current Problem of  Mass Asylum Seekers/Irregular Migrants, (as that UnPrecedented "Tsunami" which suddenly Infiltrated into the EU through Turkey since 2015-2016). While, on the Contrary, most "Greens" would still keep a "Welcome" stance...


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Unity of All the Right ?
----------------------------------------


 => Paradoxically, such Difficulties with the "Jamaika" Coalition, might "Disappear", or even, be Transformed, on the Contrary, into ... Common Points, when it comes for Migration Issues and the "CDU - FDP - AdF" Formula of Unity of All the Right, where many Liberals, ChristianDemocrats and Alternative might Share Similar Views on that "Hot" and Topical matter, (particularly when it comes into Keeping a "Firm" Stance vis a vis Mass Asylum Seekers/Irregular Migrants influx, as those which, Suddenly, inundated Europe through Turkey from 2015-2016).

Naturally, the Unity of All the Right, with the 3 Parties (ChristianDemocrats, Liberals and Alternative) to which the German People gave the Biggest Number of MPs, taken all Together, has become, Today, the solution for a New Government with the Strongest Absolute Majority, as we saw (Comp. Numbers noted Supra).

But, Notoriously, there are some Other Difficulties, in view for any Negotiations to create a New Governemental Coalition at the Right side of the Political Spectrum for the 1st Time in History.


Perhaps less the Risk for Far Rightist Deviations by some, (in fact, rather Easy to Oppose, if necessary), but More the Insistance of certain sectors (mainy of the SPD) to "Demonise" at any cost the "Alternative", so as to Divide the Right, and let the Left Dominate the Political Life, (as it has been routinely done f.ex. in France, at a quite Different situation, however)...

Nevertheless, just at the Beginning of this Week, (on Sunday, 17 of September 2017), suddenly Chancellor Angie Merkel surprized by an Apparently "Anodynous" Answer to an Exceptional session of Questions/Replies with Young Kids  in Berlin :
 
 - Her Favorite Head of Government would be ..."Erna Solberg of Norway" (sic !), she UnExpectedly revealed, just a Few Days since the Center-Right Leader of the Norwegian Conservatives Won a 2nd Electoral Mandate ...together with a Rightist party !

That Successful Norwegian move towards a Unity of the Right, has Spread, meanwhile, also in Denmark (forthcoming CoE President for November 2017 - May 2018 : Comp. ....).

More Recently, also in Bulgaria, where ChristianDemocrat/EPP party's Boyko Borisov has agreed a Government Deal with the Rightists of the "United Patriots", who "Droped their former Euro-Sceptiscist stance, endorsing now a Pro-European Agenda, since Bulgaria is due to Chair the EU from January 2O18", (as Sofia's Ambassador to the CoE, experienced former EU Affairs Minister Ms Katya Todorova, has told "Eurofora", earlier in Strasbourg)...

And Brussels has just endorsed as New EU Commissioner for "Digital" Technologies, the ...Bulgarian MEP Maria Gabriel, Wife of a French EU Parliament's Officer from Strasbourg, former Assistant to ChristianDemocrat/EPP President Joseph Daul, and currently of New EU Parliament's President Antonio Tajani, well known to "Eurofora" since many years...

The German People gave Today to the Rightists of the "Alternative" new party, about 13%-14% and Many MPs at the Bundestag, for the First Time at National level, Making them the Biggest among the 4 Small Parties, and revendicating the 3rd Rank in the New Parliament, (just after the ChristianDemocrats and the Socialists : Comp. Supra).

Together with the Liberals and the Rightists, the ChristianDemocrats could now have a Very Solid Absolute Majority of More than 56 % of the Votes casted in these 2017 Elections, just with the Right side of the Political spectrum, (i.e. without any more Concessions to the Left, f.ex. to the Socialists or the Greens, etc).

Notoriously, however, there seem to still be several Big Differences between the "CDU/CSU" and the "Alternative" currently, as things stand until now.

However Changes may be Possible, as the Examples of Norway, Denmark, Bulgaria, and elsewhere in Europe, (f.ex. also in Finland, between 2015 - 2017, but even Nowadays, with at least a portion of "the Finns' Party" rightists), precisely shows (Comp. Supra)...
 
Already, f.ex., among others, even AfD's vice-President, MEP Beatrix von Storck, who had been Presented by Establishment's Medias as Radically Opposed to Merkel in the Past, on the Contrary, Recently, she Complained to "Eurofora" in EU Parliament in Strasbourg that CDU People "don't even Talk to us !", ...

I.e., at First Sight, the situation, mutatis-mutandis, looks Similar to that which had Existed in the Past between the ChristianDemocrats and the Greens until 2010 (See, f.ex. : ... + ..., etc), but Changed seriously After 2011 - 2013, so that Today, a, eventual "Jamaica" Coalition (CDU/CSU - Liberals - Greens) notoriously seems possible.

And Chancellor Angie Merkel has already proved that she's perfectly Able, when really needed, to make even some Spectacular "U-Turns", on Strategic Issues, (as, f.ex., her 2011 "Energy-Schift", on the occasion of Fukusima, etc).

Her sudden Sympathy for the successful Norwegian Prime Minister, just Yesterday (Comp. Supra), makes think ...  After all, Norwegian Fjords' Salmon is Good even for (Political) Health, sometimes !


 - Eventual "Negotiations" with the "Alternative" would be "Hard", reportedly Warned ToNight in Berlin, the German Chancellor Angie Merkel. F.ex. they asked for a "Commission on Merkel"... - "I don't shy about a Commission", "But I'd prefer to have enough Time to Debate about the Future !", she Highlighted...

 

- Tn particular, the German Chancellor reportedly promised to "Take Seriously (the) Fears, (and) Note (the) Concerns" of the People who Voted for the "Alternative", "mainly through Good Policies", as she stressed.

 

After all, arbouring a Large, Bright Smile under the Moto : "At the Center", Angie Merkel appeared, despite a Hard Fight, rather Interested by the Fact that, for the First Time, the German People gave her, not just One, but Many Choices !

 

Something that Nobody else has now.

 

While Merkel had an Opportunity to Prepare for such a New Political Landscape, already since almost 1,5 Year Earlier, (See, f.ex.: http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/germanregionalelections.html)...

 

 

(../..)
 
 
 
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(Opinion)

Paris - Bruxelles - Strasbourg, 2 septembre 2008

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Le spectaculaire succès du Président français, Nicolas Sarkozy, (en tête de l'UE jusqu'a décembre), à obtenir de suite un cessez le feu inattendu entre la Russie et la Georgie, immédiatement après sa visite aux Présidents Medvedev et Saakashvili, au pire moment de tensions et heurts violents meurtieurs, qui avaient tué plusieurs innocents et provoqué le deplacement forcé de réfugiés par milliers, lui donne incontestablement une stature vraiment européenne :

A ses liens personnels bien connus avec l'Hongrie, la Grece, l'Italie ou l'Espagne, en sus de son amitié avec la chancelière allemande Merkel, son souhait d'essayer d'attirer l'Angleterre au jeu européen, etc, s'y ajoute, maintenant, une réussite, fragile certes, mais importante, au combat pour la Paix dans la "grande" Europe du général De Gaulle, "jusqu'a l'Oural", qui inclut naturellement la Géorgie, l'Arménie et d'autres pays, et ne peut exister qu'avec rapports de confiance et partenartiat stratégique avec la Russie.

Apres avoir réussi à debloquer la situation au Liban, (pays avec liens culturels historiques en Europe), lors du Sommet pour la Méditerranée à Paris, juillet dernier, (comme atteste maintenant le prémier accord d'echange d'Ambassadeurs avec la Syrie), Sarkozy activa maintenant une présidence française de l'EU bien entreprenante, à l'autre bout de l'Europe, à Moscou, où, contrairement à Napoléon, il a été reçu avec soulagement par le nouveau président russe, ami de l'experimenté Vladimir Poutine.

Cet homme politique rélativement nouveau au plan politique européen, avec une vision souvent critique ou même critiquée, à tort ou a raison, mais ambitieuse et concrete a la fois, qui aime s'adresser aux "Européens", comme il dit, n'est-il pas bien placé pour stimuler le fameux débat sur l' "Identité de l' Europe", qu'il a proposé au Parlement Européen récemment à Strasbourg, moins d'un an avant les Elections européennes de 2009 ?

En 2007, il a réussi à faire monter spectaculairement la participation citoyenne aux élections présidentielles en France, obtenant des récords historiques :

N'est-ce pas, justement ce que l' Europe a bésoin, apres 2 abstentions majoritaires sans précedent aux Elections de 1999 et 2004, et 3 "Non" aux réferenda pour ses institutions en 2005 et 2008, pendant une décennie trouble 1999-2008, (marquée surtout par la demande controversée de la Turquie d'entrer dans l'UE eclipsant les avancées de la Monnaie unique et de la liberté de circulation à l'espace Shengen, avec consequences mal-ressenties par la majorité des citoyens, bien au-délà des clivages du passé), qui a failli stopper l'integration européenne ?

Et cela, au moment même ou une globalisation galopante met l'Europe devant un choix crucial entre saut qualitatif en avant, apte à valoriser une occasion historique exceptionelle à se développer résolument, après les vaines destructions, querelles et tensions des guerres "chaudes" ou "froides" qui lui ont couté son rang dans le Monde, ou réculer définitivement en décadence...

Alors, que certains de nos amis à la Commission en Bruxelles, lui laissent au moins un peu d'espace de mouvement, et qu'ils l'aident à tenter d'insufler de l' oxygène frais et vivifiant aux rapports entre les citoyens et une Europe qui a manifestement bésoin et mérite de retrouver d'urgence un nouveau dynamisme populaire, avec un souci de réalisme mais aussi une vision passionante pour son avenir !

Après tout, les Etats Unis d' Amérique ne se sont pas faits à coups de bureaucratie, nécessaire et utile, mais manifestement insuffisante : Sans l'impulsion d'hommes politiques originaux, d'intellectuels vraiment engagés, et, surtout, sans l'enorme énergie émanant de la conscience d'enjeux à la fois pratiques et grandioses, bien resentis par des millions de citoyens, stimulant leur adhésion active comme pioniers d'un nouveau avenir commun à construire, ils seraient encore une ex-colonie périphérique, affaiblie par stériles divisions, passif et impuissant spectateur des convulsions tragiques d'un Monde à la dérive...

Que les vrais "européens" ré-lisent au moins les fameux discours historiques sur l' Europe d'un Sarkozy bien inspiré à Strasbourg, aussi bien avant qu'après avoir gagné les élections françaises, le 21 février et le 2 juillet 2007, après son 1er sommet des Bruxelles, qui a adopté le nouveau Traité de l'UE en conclusion de la presidence allémande : Bonnes lectures pour cet été 2008, afin de préparer l' avenir qui s'ouvrira (ou fermera) à partir des élections européennes de 2009.

Peut-etre revelera-t-il plus, en ce sens, lors de ses 2 discours-debats prochains avec les eurodeputés, prévus lors des sessions plenières du Parlement Européen a Strasbourg en octobre et décembre 2008... 

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Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner had already unveiled President Sarkozy's intentions, during a particularly "hot" Press Conference in Paris, where he faced some's insistance for "sanctions", with a call for "a common EU stance". In the meanwhile, he was consulting "all these days" most of his EU, Russia and Georgia counterparts, (as Sarkozy's Spokesman, P-J. Henin confirmed to "EuroFora"). This allowed him to obtained the desired result, as EU Chairman, at a short, exceptional EU Summit in Brussels, afterwards.

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But, Sarkozy's No 1 official, Presidential palace's Secretary General Claude Gueant, active at Elysee during the 2008 Ambassadors' Conference, (together with his Top Diplomat, the experienced David Levitte), is well known for having an overall view : A link with 2009 EU Elections at the horizon ?

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2009 EU Elections were won by Parties against Technocracy and Turkey's controversial EU bid, while the 1999-2004 Majority Abstention trend decelerated. What should be done in 2009-2014 ?

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