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Author Topic: 1st Estimations for all EU Countries  (Read 4790 times)
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« on: February 07, 2014, 01:18:18 AM »

Brief but interesting overall National estimations done by the YEF, between January and February 2014 :


The Road to Strasbourg (1/2)

Friday 10 January 2014, by Alistair Spearing

Which party will receive the most votes? Who will be the next President of the European Commission? Will the eurosceptics take the European Parliament by storm? In this two-part article, we look at the state of affairs in the different EU Member States with just a few months left until the 2014 European elections.

Austria (18 seats)

There is one party consistently leading the polls and it is the Austrian People’s Party. After coming in second to the Social Democratic Party in last year’s legislative election, the party led by Michael Spindelegger looks set to go one better and take 25% of the vote. The Social Democrats and the Freedom Party are tied at 21.5%, with the Greens floating around 12.5%.

Belgium (21 seats)

Voting patterns could be affected by the fact that the European election will be held on the same day as the Belgian federal and regional elections (a factor which tends to reduce protest votes). Adjusted for the split into Walloon and Flemish parties, expect the New Flemish Alliance to romp home with 20% of the vote, followed by the Socialists with 18%, the Liberals with 17% and the Centrists with 14%.

Bulgaria (17 seats)

The memories of a turbulent 2013 in Bulgarian politics will still be fresh in voters’ minds, damaging the standing of both main parties. Polls consistently reveal a high percentage of undecided voters, in some cases up to 50%, so they should be taken with a pinch of salt. That being said, polls put the centre-right GERB and the Bulgarian Socialist Party neck-and-neck —it is simply too close to call.

Croatia (11 seats)

After just 20.8% of the electorate bothered to vote in the off-year election in 2013 following Croatia’s accession to the EU, boosting turnout should be top of the list. No European polls have been published recently, but national polls put the Social Democrats in front. Remember, though, this is exactly what the polls predicted in 2013... but the Croatian Democratic Union bounced back to claim a razor-thin win.

Cyprus (6 seats)

The 2014 EP election will be the first one after the clumsily handled bail-out that sparked an eruption of anti-Troika sentiment on the island of Aphrodite. Cypriots do not seem to blame President Anastasiades, with polls showing his Democratic Rally party leading the pack with 23.5% of votes, followed by the Communists at 15%, the Democratic Party at 8.2, and the Social Democrats at 4.5%.

Czech Republic (21 seats)

The new Czech government, a three-party coalition of Social Democrats, ANO 2011 and Christian Democrats, is still in its honeymoon period. There are no recent European polls to go on, but polling for the next Czech legislative election suggests that the coalition’s vote is holding up, although populist ANO 2011 could very well supplant the Social Democrats as the biggest party.

Denmark (13 seats)

The ruling Social Democrats have taken a battering in the public arena due to their austerity measures, but the centre-right Venstre (which, curiously enough, means “Left”) has been unable to capitalise on this and still trails them by a small margin. Further down the scoreboard, the People’s Movement against the EU (no prizes for guessing its political alignment) will be seeking to build on its 2009 success.

Estonia (6 seats)

This Baltic state’s pioneering use of Internet voting in the last European election helped boost turnout from 27% in 2005 to almost 44% in 2009. It will be repeating the experience this year and, if it continues to work this well, other countries should take note. No recent polls have been published, although the ruling Centre Party should be able to extend its domestic hegemony to the European level.

Finland (13 seats)

The ruling National Coalition Party faces its first European test since it first became the largest Finnish party in 2011. Polls suggest it will pass with flying colours, winning the election with 22.7%, just ahead of Olli Rehn’s Centre Party, with 21.7%. Other parties set to win seats are the eurosceptic Finns Party ( 17%), the Social Democrats ( 15.4%), the Greens ( 8.1%) and the Left Alliance ( 7.1%).

France (74 seats)

France is shaping up to be one of the main battlegrounds against populism, as the nationalists’ darling, Marine Le Pen, seeks to score a coup by harnessing the protest vote. The main parties’ decision to put “career politicians” at the head of certain party lists sparked a backlash and brought grist to Le Pen’s mill. Recent polls put her National Front in the pole position, with 24% of votes, just ahead of the centre-right Union for a Popular Movement ( 22%). President Hollande’s Socialist Party, meanwhile, continues to flounder in third place (19%).

Germany (96 seats)

After narrowly failing to cross the threshold needed to gain representation in the Bundestag, AfD will try to make amends in an election that is, perhaps, better suited to its political platform. The quirks of the German system mean Merkel’s Bavarian coalition partner will have to take at least 35% of the vote in Bavaria to cross the national threshold. Martin Schulz’s Social Democrats will also be aiming for a good performance to bolster his claim to the Commission Presidency. Polls suggest Merkel’s CDU/CSU will take 42 seats, the Social Democrats 26, the Greens and the Left 10 seats apiece, and the FDP and AfD 4 seats each.

Greece (21 seats)

Greece is still in troubled waters as it sails into its Presidency of the EU. Alexis Tsipras has worked hard to emphasise the rift between his party and the ruling coalition. And, judging from the polls, it is working: SYRIZA is in the lead, with 22% of votes to New Democracy’s 20.8%. More worryingly, Golden Dawn sits in third place with 9.1%. Meanwhile, PASOK ( 4.9%) is just clinging on for dear life.

Hungary (21 seats)

If Viktor Orbán was shaken by the EU’s threats of sanctions for his controversial constitutional reforms, he certainly has not shown it. The Fidesz juggernaut is on course to take close to 60% of the votes. The Socialist Party is a distant second, with 24%. Far-right Jobbik is third, with 14%. Together 2014, a broad coalition formed in opposition to Fidesz, will capture at best a single seat —more proof, if any was needed, of just how lopsided Hungarian politics have become.

Ireland (11 seats)

The Republic has reformed its constituencies since the last European election, with the abolition of the North-West and East ones and the creation of a Midlands–North-West one. No European polls have been published recently, but national ones show centre-right Fine Gael with a significant lead that will probably be reflected in the European election: 30% to Fianna Fail’s 21% and Sinn Féin’s 15%.


The road to Strasbourg (2/2)

Sunday 2 February 2014, by Alistair Spearing

Which party will receive the most votes? Who will be the next President of the Commission? Will the eurosceptics take the Parliament by storm? The second half of this two-part article looks at the state of affairs in different EU Member States with just a few months left until the 2014 European election.

Italy (73 seats)

To say that 2013 was a rollercoaster year in Italian politics would be quite an understatement. However, the coalition parties are closing in on a deal that could lead to less chaotic elections in the future. Matteo Renzi’s recent election as its leader has galvanised the Democratic Party, which leads the European polls with 32% of the votes, with Berlusconi’s revived Forza Italia in second place with 22%. Despite internal strife, the Five Star Movement still looks set to poll high, with 21%, while the New Centre-Right ( 5%) and the Northern League ( 4%) may capture a seat or two.

Latvia (8 seats)

With parliamentary elections looming in October, the European election in Latvia will be a dress rehearsal for the national one. No opinion polls have been published recently, but much will hinge on whether Dombrovskis’ Unity Party can withstand the battering it took following the Riga supermarket roof collapse, and on whether Latvians think their first months in the Eurozone have been good for them.

Lithuania (11 seats)

Prime Minister Butkevičius has pretty much staked his job on a successful European policy, claiming he will resign if Lithuania cannot join the Eurozone in 2015. Polls say voters will endorse his Social Democrats ( 25%), followed by the eurosceptic Order and Justice ( 11%) and the centre-right Homeland Union ( 9%), still in the doldrums following its poor showing in the 2012 national election.

Luxembourg (6 seats)

The European election will be the first acid test for the new Bettel government. No European polls have been published recently. However, if history and the October elections are anything to go by, the Christian Social People’s Party will handily win the European election, as it always has. The Socialist Workers’ Party should take second, although the Democratic Party will probably give it a run for its money.

Malta (6 seats)

As in other small countries, European election polls are few and far between. The archipelago is basically a two-party state, with only the centre-left Labour Party and the centre-right Nationalist Party holding any seats in the national parliament. Expect the two of them to carve up Malta’s European Parliament seats between them fairly evenly.

Netherlands (26 seats)

The big story is that Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom is leading the polls with 17% of votes. The resilient People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy ( 14%) continues to poll high despite several years in government, while the Labour Party ( 10%) flounders in fifth place as its core constituencies punish it for enabling harsh budget cuts and its blatantly out-of-character anti-immigration rhetoric.

Poland (51 seats)

Merkel has made no secret of the fact that Donald Tusk is on her shortlist for the Commission presidency but, at least in Poland, it looks like his Civic Platform ( 27%) will be beaten into second place by the anti-Federalist Law and Justice Party ( 30%). The largest centre-left party, the Democratic Left Alliance, is light-years behind them, at 12%. Other parties seem unlikely to gain representation.

Portugal (21 seats)

If you need proof of how short political memory is, look no further than Portugal. Less than three years after being smashed in the 2011 legislative election (its worst showing in over two decades), the Socialist Party ( 38%) is set to win the European elections by a country mile. The other side of the coin is the Social Democratic Party ( 27%), which has lost as much as the Socialists have gained.

Romania (32 seats)

Voters appear to think Prime Minister Ponta’s Social Democratic Party is managing the country well, as polls show the PSD ( 39%) greatly improving on its 2009 score. President Băsescu’s Democratic Liberal Party ( 19%), on the other hand, faces heavy losses and may even surrender second place to the National Liberal Party ( 18%). The ethnic Hungarian UDMR ( 6%) will try to salvage a seat or two.

Slovakia (13 seats)

Pro-Europeans and other democrats in Slovakia were left reeling by the election of neo-Nazi Marian Kotleba as the governor of Banská Bystrica, but they now have a chance to take back the initiative in the European elections. The Social Democrats ( 40%) should win handily, with the Christian Democrats ( 10%) a distant second. The Ordinary People Party ( 8%) and Most–Híd ( 7%) are vying for third.

Slovenia (8 seats)

Slovenia is going into the 2014 European elections after narrowly dodging a bailout and with new Prime Minister Alenka Bratušek at the helm. However, her Positive Slovenia will probably take a beating in May, as the centre-right Slovenian Democratic Party grabs 36% of votes and the Social Democrats take 21%. Bratušek’s party ( 14%) sits in third, just ahead of the Pensioners’ Party ( 13%).

Spain (54 seats)

The Socialists have so far been unable to make hay of the ruling Popular Party’s abortive attempts to revive the economy. However, the backlash against the new abortion law has turned the tables in national polls and could end up doing the same in European ones. While united on the home front, Catalan nationalist parties have been unable to agree on a common platform for the European elections and will be running in two separate coalitions. Recent polls show the Popular Party ( 32%) just ahead of the Socialists ( 30%), with the United Left ( 13%) receiving a huge boost compared to 2009, and Union, Progress and Democracy ( 9%).

Sweden (20 seats)

Although to outside observers Sweden may seem to be sailing smoothly, many Swedish voters disagree. This is why the four parties in the ruling coalition, even when put together, are polling lower than the Social Democrats’ 33% (!). Far behind, but still ahead of all the other parties, the staunchly anti-immigration Sweden Democrats ( 10%) will contribute to the populist upswell in Europe.

United Kingdom (73 seats)

While some polls put Labour and others put UKIP ahead, there is a real risk that the Conservatives will come in third in a national election for the first time in several generations, possibly even triggering a leadership challenge as restless backbenchers seek to depose a Prime Minister who is not conservative enough for their taste. Labour ( 32%) seems to be slowly but steadily forging ahead of UKIP ( 26%) as Farage’s party takes damage from “Stormgate” and other scandals. Not all hope is lost for the Conservatives ( 23%), who can still overtake UKIP and take a more or less honorable second.

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