Will May 2010 UK Election confirm the June 2009 EU Electoral change ?

[Breadman]

It's interesting to closely follow the May 2010 Brittish Elections, to see if Citizens will confirm the June 2009 surprising change, where, in addition to a Conservatives' lead, the formely tiny, marginal "Independence Party" (UKIP), got more votes than the governing New Labour party, becoming the No 2 in Great Britain, for the 1st time in History !

In order to succeed that astonishing popular result, it had to change its main focus, from the formerly underlined UK withdrawal out of the EU, more towards an explicit refusal of Turkey's impopular EU bid, which proved to be rejected even by a surprisingly large number of British People...

Several recent polls indicate, however, a Labour come back, Conservatives still keeping ahead, and the Liberals returning to their solid 3rd place on 2010.

 But the previous, 2005 Election's polls proved that Polls in the UK cannot be trusted at all .. (F.ex. up to the last day, they claimed a + 10% Labour win, pushing critics to abstention by depriving critics of any hope to win... While, in fact, next day's real results proved that, in reality, Conservatives and Labour were neck to neck, with a slight, tiny micro-"difference" of less than 1% !).

Moreover, now, a recent  "Harris" poll notes a big augmentation of UKIP's potential voters at the end of March 2010, getting anew higher than Liberals and close to Labour.

However, a comparatively lesser 2010 reference recently to - sometimes even an ommission of - UKIP's 2009 criticism vis a vis Turkey's attempts to enter into the EU, and a return back to simply anti-EU speeches, might threaten UKIP to lose at least part of the popular support it got on June 2009 EU Elections....