Greece : Uncertainty until March 2010 !

[GVK369]

- 40% of voters out of the system !

- Extremes reinforced, (more towards the populist - nationalist right).

- Nobody knows what will happen on March 2010, when the Constitution asks a 75% Majority for the Presidential Election, that PASOK and its allies fail to gather, even if they succeed to the ND in the government meanwhile, with almost their past scores of 1989 and 2004 (when they had lost !)..

_________

The facts in more detail :

Abstention grew more than + 6%, arriving for the first time at 32% (despite the fact that the vote is obligatory in Greece), while some 3% voted "nul", and some 5% of voters will not have any representative, leaving some 40 % of the electorate out of the system, according to the first results from Greece.

At the same time, the "extremes" are reinforced :

- The populist right of LAOS (popular nationalists) doubles its previous results, passing from 3% to more than 6%, achieving its aim to have at least 15 MPs in order to start using certain procedures which play a crucial role in the Parliament, for the first time in the modern history of the country. (To this should be added also various other nationalist movements, which don't pass the 3% threshhold because they are still dispersed).

- And the Communist party KKE firmly holds the 3rd place in the whole country, with an estimated 8% and more than 21 MPs.

On the contrary, the reformist left, pro-PASOK, du Syriza, just keeps its nose over the threshhold by falling down to only some 4%, and stays marginalized with some 9 MPs.

As expected, the opposition of PASOK, even if it fails to get more than some 41 or 42%, (almost the same as it already had in 1989 and 2004 : 41%, when it lost !), nevertheless, it might return to the government again, as back in the 1980-2003 period, but with a thin margin of only about 6 or 7 MPs, (fex. 157 or 158, the majority being 151).

But it was not yet certain if it will lose, or not, 1 MP if the "Greens" pass the 3% threshhold.

A fact which does not garantee long-term stability in the turbulent history of Greece, since the Papandreou family's parties had already a traumatic past of scissions, as when they lost the government back in the 1960ies after a group of their former MPs changed their stance and formed a new government with the former opposition of the center-right ND.

Moreover, it's uncertain if it will stay more than a few Months only, since, according to the Greek Constitution, the election of a new President of the Republic must take place at the latest on March 2010, with a 75% majority in the Parliament, which lacks to the PASOK-Syriza block : Instead of the neded 201 out of 300 MPs, they should have only about 166... So, if they fail to agree with the opposition, the Constitution says that new elections must be held.

Thus, the key of what will happen in a few Months is firmly held by the center-right New Democracy party, which, as it chose itself, by surprisingly deciding to hold premature elections, leaves now the government, (despite 2 electoral wins in 5 years : 2004 and 2007 !), but, with about 35% of the votes casted (and some reserves among the abstentionists, it seems), keeps a solid group of roughly less than 100 MPs, which will be decisive on March 2010.