Sarkozy moves 81% of UMP fans amidst Parties' Crisis, while Rightists grow before EU Election

Nicolas Sarkozy sky-rockets among main French opposition party's supporters, with as high as 81% of preferences, according to the latest Poll established by SOFRES at the eve of December 2012, as it was published today by mainstream Newspaper "Figaro".
People who wish to see him "play an Important Role in the coming Months and/or Years" grew +2% more and Top now, among all other politicians, with 81% of preferences from UMP Party supporters, while Sarkozy also wins +4 and +5 points even vis-a-vis supporters of the Socialist and Leftist parties, (even if he slightly drops -5% vis a vis all the Right side of the political spectrum, where he still remains, however, the uncontested No 1 as their most Popular Politician with 64%).

Thus, the former President of the country appears now as the only "ciment" able to keep United the main opposition party UMP (that he renovated and led for 8 years 2004-2012), particularly after 2 "epigones", (his former Prime Minister Fillon and recently named UMP Secretary General Copé) didn't manage to get really more than about 50% each in internal Primaries organized on November (see "EuroFora"s earlier NewsReport at : http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/sarkozyforunityofump.html ):

Copé was declared winner by the Party's statutory organs with a Small difference of initially only some 92 votes, later augmented to more than 950, among more than 150.000 casted votes, but Fillon (that previous Polls had indicated, on the contrary, that he would largely win that vote) vividly replied by denouncing that result as unfounded and asking to re-vote under a collegial leadership, through a differend procedure to be organized by an "independent" provider, pending what, he created a new Group of MPs at the French Parliament, who left immediately the main UMP Group, threatening a more or less deep separation, unless his conditions were met.

Sarkozy, immediately after arriving home from a Shanghai Conference, succeeded to incite Fillon and Copé to agree on organizing a Referendum among UMP's members on whether they wished to re-vote anew, or not, at the beginning of 2013.


But, even if only some 67 out of more than 190 UMP deputies (i.e. almost the 1/3) went to Fillon's "Rassemblement-UMP" potentially Scissionist new Group, nevertheless, he refused to Cancel it before a Time Deadline fixed by Copé for this Afternoon, asking him to accept, before that, the above mentioned Conditions and to quit from UMP's Top Post in favor of a Collegial leadership until the Re-Vote question would find a reply by the party's members (comp. Supra) :


A demand which was droped by UMP's SG, who, on the contrary, continued to point at the controversial Findings by the Party's statutory organs, "unanimously", even without an equal number of each candidate's supporters, according to which, by sanctioning a few attempts to Fraud (reportedly by some local supporters of Fillon), Copé would have won the race with a small but clear advance of more than 950 votes (out of more than 150.000 votes casted).

Another, supplementary attempt by a 3rd, informal team of more than 70 "Non-Alligned" MPs in favor of UMP's "Unity", including former President of the Parliament Accoyer, former UMP's Secretary General Bertrand and former mainstream Ministers Koziusko-Morizet and Le Maire, even Sarkozy's main personal Counsillor at Elysee Palace : Guaino, etc., who launched a last-minute call for Fillon to drop his "R.-UMP" new Group before the Deadline fixed by Copé expires this Evening, and from Copé to confirm a Referendum on the question of Re-Voting , due to be organized by a special committee of uncontested "Wisemen" to be set up inside the UMP Party, remained without a timely result.

Meanwhile, even if that New Group "R.-UMP" reportedly decided to remain "Financially Attached" to the main (and still Bigger) UMP Group, to which it would remain technically "attached" and theoretically ready to be dissolved if Fillon's conditions were accepted by Copé (comp. Supra), nevertheless, Sarkozy was described by converging personal Friends' reports as being particularly upset by the obvious risks of Division, expressing a Widely spread Feeling among UMP's members and supporters, (even more largely : all along the Center-Right side of the Political Spectrum in France), in favour of UMP's "Unity", which already started to mushroom, now even raising various Initiatives from Grassroots' level, particularly motivated by the aftermath of the very Tight and controversial results in the 2012 French Elections (comp. relevant "EuroFora"s NewsReports : http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/frenchandgreekelections.html + http://www.eurofora.net/newsflashes/news/frenchparliamentaryelecion1.html ), but most of all by the exceptionally important Issues at stake in  Economic and Financial, Social and Moral, National and European political choices to make, Strategy to shape and decisions to urgently take in  the next few Days, Weeks or Months/Years, expected to have a crucial impact both in France and all the EU.

Speculations on the Future outcome of this crisis go from an obvious risk of further Division inside the French Center-Right, (already notoriously divided, since the 1980ies, between mainstream, "Republican" Right of RPR evolved into UMP, and "National Front's Rightists, as well some fluctuating Center groups), a still possible, full reUnification of UMP, in one way or another, (i.e. by a final Agreement between Fillon and Copé, and/or by a relaunch of Sarkozy's uncontested and popular leadership, according to People's wish), or, perhaps, by a rasor-thin Scenario of a kind of soft link, a sort of (con- ?) Federation among UMP's 2 (or 3 ?) various sensitivities, which seems to have just become these days a Fact (comp. Supra), but of unknown yet duration and/or future orientation..


However, even in that case, Sarkozy (whose double Electoral Success, both in the 2007 Presidential and Parliamentary Elections in France, and in the 2009 European Parliament's Elections, as well almost in 2012 too, is, precisely, based in his capacity to Bring Together all mainstream Right, allied with several Centrists, but also by attacting many former Rightists and/or Abstentionists towards Mainstream Politics), has many among his close political Friends and/or most important former Ministers, Counselors, etc., almost equitably shared between Fillon's and Copé's supporters alike, so that he should, normally, be able to have a positive influence in view of eventually re-uniting both together, inside a new schema of roles in the Future. At any case, with more than 33% of preferences Today among French People of all political horizons, according to the latest Polls, Sarkozy already has got +2% points more than what he had when he initiallly started his landmark 2007 - 2009 series of key-Elections' Wins : Then, he had succeeded with just 31% at the beginning, (i.e. much more than commentators usually predicted, since their routine speculations evolved for that kind of things around 21 - 25%, largely bypasssed)...


Something welcome, particularly when the latest Polls also warn about the fact that, while all Parties, from the Right to the Left of the entire political spectrum, are currently falling down in People's preferences, - the sharpest fall being that of the "Socialists", (already in power since several Months or Years in most Municipalities and Regions, at the Parliament, the Senate, the Presidency and in the Government, etc) - on the contrary, the only Party which Wins more than +2% in Positive views, (while, at the same time,  Negative views on it diminish for - 3%), is that of Marine le Pen's controversial Rightist "National Front"'s jump up to 23%...

Even more, Long-term Graphics clearly show that Rightist FN's popular sympathies since its Surprising qualification to the 2nd round of French Presidential Elections back on 2002 (i.e. at the end of former "Socialist" Jospin's Government, who was bypassed by Le Pen then), after a quasi-permanently Low during most of Sarkozy's era (2007-2011+), started to gradually grow anew from the end of 2011, reaching Record-High Polls' results, for the 1st time up to about 23%-24% during the current "Socialist" President Hollande between Summer and Automn 2012, until it bypassed a Leftist Party, and arrived, Today, at a similar level as France's long-time Communist Party/the Left coalition, and even the mainstream Center Party MODEM, dangerously approaching even UMP, (closely followed by sharply Falling "Greens" and "Socialists"), which had, however, re-gained some important Vigour during Sarkozy's Winter and Spring 2012 latest Electoral campaign... (See relevant Graphics).

Given also a recent Press Conference at EU Parliament in Strasbourg by 3 MEPs leading Rightist Parties from France, Austria and Belgium, including FN's Marine le Pen, where they anounced the creation of a PanEuropean Network on the move, almost 1 year before the forthcoming, crucial European Elections of June 2014, (due to be held during a Greek rotating EU Chairmanship between January and July 2014), particularly as long as the current Global Economic/Financial Crisis' effects might persist, aggravated, perhaps, by some avoidable errors, here or there, it's obvious that the above-mentioned unprecedented developments in the mainstream Center-Right area of such a big and key EU Country as France, may have an important impact, indirectly but probably, throughout all Europe.

In this regard, a forthcoming Top Political Meeting between all ChristianDemocrat/EPP Group Parties' Presidents in Brussels, later Next Month, at the eve of the EU December 2012 Summit, could be particularly interesting...

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