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Inicio arrow In Brief arrow Turkish Economy Falling Down again, in a Context which is No more that of 1999/2001...

Turkish Economy Falling Down again, in a Context which is No more that of 1999/2001...

Escrito por ACM
18.05.15
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*A News-Viewpoint/- Falling growth, Serious Trade Deficit, Higher Inflation, and constantly Growing Unemployment, are among the factors which obviously push towards more Social Tensions and Unrest in Turkey :


F.ex., among others, instead of the more than +10 % of Growth that had been reached in a few Past years, now Turkey struggles with only 2,9%. But, given the State's policy to push for more and more Births, Turkey generaly needs at least 5% of Growth in order to absorb the number of Youngsters arriving each year at the Labour Market, (unless it exports them to Europe via Mass Migration)...


In addition, "an unexpected Leap" in Turkey's "current account Deficit", reportedly "caused by a severe Fall in Exports", "surprised" the markets this May, which have seen, in general, "the Slowdown to have Intensified in 2015"


Thus, Unemployment, rising steadily during the last 5 Years, reached almost 12 % at the beginning of 2015, i.e. the Highest level since before 2010, affecting more than 3,3 Millions of workless aged "15 - 64", (while among Young people aged 15 - 24, the Unemployment has passed over 20%).


The problem is that, at the same time, Inflation jumped up to more than + 7,63% annualy, while Consumers' Prices augmented + 1,63% only on April, (fuelled also by a Devaluation of the Turkish Lira, whose Weakening makes Imports more Expensive), with reportedly "Record High Prices for Food", etc.


To the point that experienced observers were led to count on "Informal" Social Aid networks for the "worst affected" among the extending number of needy.
Recently, this goes on almost Every Day, confirming a gradual Trend towards a Worsening of the situation : F.ex., Lira stood at 2.5785 against US Dollar last Friday evening, but immediately Fell down to 2,5830 for 1 USDollar Today early Morning, while, on the contrary, Turkish Government's 10-year Bonds yield rose from 8,96 % on Friday, up to 8,99 % this Monday, persisting to slowly but continuously restrict the money available in the market, as Turkish State's Deficit may become Higher than the almost - 9 Billions USA $ predicted now by Ankara.


Thus, among various other concrete examples, 2 Turkish Factories assembling Italian and French Cars for "Fiat" and "Renault", still "remained" Blocked Yesterday, "as (Turkish) Workers protested employment conditions", reported Reuters earlier this Monday.


If these recent Trends persist longer, the aggravation of Economic and Social problems in Turkey, (given also the current overall Context in its Surrounding Area), may become, sooner or later, Worse even than the 1999-2001 Big "Krach", from which, controversial Economist Dervis, a long-time Global bodies' Bureaucrat, struggled to get Turkey out, thanks to IMF Austerity, profiting from an unprecedented Mass Destruction of unsustainable Traditional Industry after Izmit area's Historic Earthquake, which notoriously Killed more than 30 Thousands of mainly Poor People, and from an equally unprecedented massive influx of EU Funds, thanks to a controversial attribution of a Status of EU "Accession Candidate" to Ankara then, (etc).


But, Today, on  2015, none of those exceptional factors of the Past can't exist, no more, with a more Critical than ever EU Parliament elected last May 2014, and  particularly after the recent British Elections, where a strong Majority of British People voted for even more EU Financial Austerity and Mass Immigration Restrictions, earlier this Month...


In this new context, EU Parliament's forthcoming Debates and Votes on EU Commission's 2015 Report on Turkey's political and economic developments and prospects, next week in Strasbourg, must examine the situation more seriously than before.

 

(../..)

 

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    Before the end of 2009, France and Germany will take strong initiatives to open "new Horizons" needed by Europe and the World, going well beyond the current Crisis' management, anounced French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angie Merkel, reassuring that both a judgement on Lisbon Treaty by nearby Karlsruhe German Federal Court, and the forthcoming National Elections in Germany would confirm their capacity to act.    

They were replying to Press questions in Berlin, after key-regional elections on Sunday, where Merkel's ChristianDemocratic party kept everywhere a strong 1st and won the possibility to forge a New Majority with Liberals at the largest of 3 Landers : Saxony (4 millions inhabitants), while its main competitor, the Socialdemocrat party fell to unprecedented lows : Tackled by the small "Linke" (left) party in Saarland (1 million inhabitants), it became even smaller than it in Saxony and Thuringen (3 million inhabitants), where SPD arrived only third. While its usual partners, the "Greens" also fell down, contrary to CDU's new partners, the FDP Liberals, who go up.

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    - "At any case, at the end of the year (2009), if things go as scheduled, we shall take strong initiatives, showing that Europe needs a Franco-German axis, as well as the World, even if it never excludes other" countries to join, replied Sarkozy to a question if France and Germany will revive the "European dream", by "relauncing the EU motor" for the Future, with actions going further than the mere management of the global crisis, (as it was done fex. in the Past with the creation of the "Euro" Monetary zone, etc).

    - "I am convinced that the Franco-German friendship must be constantly nourished by New Projects", he added."There are many areas of cooperation where we intend to take, very soon, some Franco-German initiatives, which will allow to open more Horizons" to the EU, Sarkozy stressed.

    But if "we don't speak about that now, it's only in order to avoid interfering in important elections coming in Germany", he observed. However, "we have already started to consider the Future with the (German) Chancellor, and what we can do in order to honour our predecessors". "We are already speaking about that, and we are preparing things". "I am working very well together with Mrs Merkel, and I wish that it goes on", Sarkozy concluded.

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    - "It's important for EU's credibility that France and Germany advance forward together", stressed Merkel from the outset. "Don't worry about Germany's capacity to undertake initiatives" with France, she added. "France and Germany will be perfectly able to make proposals" for the EU.

    -  "After-crisis" plans must be prepared, meanwhile, with measures "advancing progressively", Merkel anounced. And, for the short term, we must deal also with EU Citizens' dismay since they feel that it's a Scandal for some in the Financial Markets to be paid with excessive "Bonuses", etc, she agreed with Sarkozy.

    - "Abuses in financial markets must stop", stressed also Sarkozy. Backing Merkel's announcement that France and Germany call for an EU meeting to forge "a crystal-clear European position" in view of the G-14 Summit at Pittsburg, he warned that "everyone will have to undertake his responsibilities, in front of World's Public Opinion. particularly those who don't want to make the same effort of regulation as France and Germany".

    Moreover, "Global Trade cannot be correctly dealt, without taking into account also Environmental and Social rules", Sarkozy added, referring to recently expressed positions against Unfair Competition via Environmental and/or Social Dumping, (See earlier "EuroFora"'s publications).

    Such moves are obviously linked to the need to ensure at least an elementary respect for Human Rights by Third Countries, (f.ex. exploitation of Children's work, etc) in order to avoid, precisely, any such Social Dumping.

    - "EU has Values, protecting Human Rights and Human Dignity", and "it cannot close its eyes" in front of grave violations, particularly "Torture and/or killings", added, indeed, Sarkozy.

    Thus, "the time comes, where decisions must be taken". But, in case of "Sanctions", "all International opinion should be convinced of the need to take action", he observed.

    Expressed on the occasion of recent developments in Iran, the same principles should logically apply also to other similar cases, including fex. that of Hundreds of ECHR judgements' condemning f;ex. Turkey for grave crimes, (as Torture, brutal Killings, Enforced "Disappearances", Destruction of Family Homes, harassments and oppressive violations of Freedom of Speech, etc).

    Meanwhile, questioned on (EU Commission's chair)  Barroso's bid to succeed himself for a second mandate, they both expressed a "wish" or a "feeling" that "EU Parliament"'s various political Groups might fix a date for decisions "during September". However, is he is endorsed before the entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty, it will be legally necessary to re-vote anew for a full term of office afterwards, according to EU Legal Experts, revealed recently in Strasbourg the experienced former President of EU Parliament's Constitutional Committee, German Socialist MEP Jo Leinen. And Germany will not vote for Lisbon Treaty's ratification but only "on September 8 and 18", revealed Merkel, ( i.e. after EU Parliament's plenary session in Strasbourg).

    - Therefore, "for EU Commissioners' appointment, it's too early yet, because we must wait for the ratification of Lisbon Treaty" by all 27 EU Member countries, including naturally Ireland's Referendum on early October, said to "EuroFora" the influential President of EU Parliament's largest group of MEPs, Joseph Daul, expressing, however, the hope that a controversial deal with the head of the Socialist Group of MEPs, Martin Schultz of Germany, might hold for Barroso alone, at a forthcoming vote due to fix the Strasbourg plenary's Agenda.

    But MEPs reportedly just "postponed" for 1 week all their previously scheduled group meetings (See : http://www.euractiv.com/en/future-eu/barroso-unveil-summer-homework-week/article-184825 );

    However, while the choice of a new EU Commission's President by EU Parliament is supposed, according to many MEPs' wish, take place according to EU policy issues, paradoxically, this would mean that Barroso's bid would pass before even the anouncement of France and Germany's "initiatives" for EU's "new Horizons"...

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