Turkish Economy Falling Down again, in a Context which is No more that of 1999/2001...
*A News-Viewpoint/- Falling growth, Serious Trade Deficit, Higher Inflation, and constantly Growing Unemployment, are among the factors which obviously push towards more Social Tensions and Unrest in Turkey :
F.ex., among others, instead of the more than +10 % of Growth that had been reached in a few Past years, now Turkey struggles with only 2,9%. But, given the State's policy to push for more and more Births, Turkey generaly needs at least 5% of Growth in order to absorb the number of Youngsters arriving each year at the Labour Market, (unless it exports them to Europe via Mass Migration)...
In addition, "an unexpected Leap" in Turkey's "current account Deficit", reportedly "caused by a severe Fall in Exports", "surprised" the markets this May, which have seen, in general, "the Slowdown to have Intensified in 2015"
Thus, Unemployment, rising steadily during the last 5 Years, reached almost 12 % at the beginning of 2015, i.e. the Highest level since before 2010, affecting more than 3,3 Millions of workless aged "15 - 64", (while among Young people aged 15 - 24, the Unemployment has passed over 20%).
The problem is that, at the same time, Inflation jumped up to more than + 7,63% annualy, while Consumers' Prices augmented + 1,63% only on April, (fuelled also by a Devaluation of the Turkish Lira, whose Weakening makes Imports more Expensive), with reportedly "Record High Prices for Food", etc.
To the point that experienced observers were led to count on "Informal" Social Aid networks for the "worst affected" among the extending number of needy.
Recently, this goes on almost Every Day, confirming a gradual Trend towards a Worsening of the situation : F.ex., Lira stood at 2.5785 against US Dollar last Friday evening, but immediately Fell down to 2,5830 for 1 USDollar Today early Morning, while, on the contrary, Turkish Government's 10-year Bonds yield rose from 8,96 % on Friday, up to 8,99 % this Monday, persisting to slowly but continuously restrict the money available in the market, as Turkish State's Deficit may become Higher than the almost - 9 Billions USA $ predicted now by Ankara.
Thus, among various other concrete examples, 2 Turkish Factories assembling Italian and French Cars for "Fiat" and "Renault", still "remained" Blocked Yesterday, "as (Turkish) Workers protested employment conditions", reported Reuters earlier this Monday.
If these recent Trends persist longer, the aggravation of Economic and Social problems in Turkey, (given also the current overall Context in its Surrounding Area), may become, sooner or later, Worse even than the 1999-2001 Big "Krach", from which, controversial Economist Dervis, a long-time Global bodies' Bureaucrat, struggled to get Turkey out, thanks to IMF Austerity, profiting from an unprecedented Mass Destruction of unsustainable Traditional Industry after Izmit area's Historic Earthquake, which notoriously Killed more than 30 Thousands of mainly Poor People, and from an equally unprecedented massive influx of EU Funds, thanks to a controversial attribution of a Status of EU "Accession Candidate" to Ankara then, (etc).
But, Today, on 2015, none of those exceptional factors of the Past can't exist, no more, with a more Critical than ever EU Parliament elected last May 2014, and particularly after the recent British Elections, where a strong Majority of British People voted for even more EU Financial Austerity and Mass Immigration Restrictions, earlier this Month...
In this new context, EU Parliament's forthcoming Debates and Votes on EU Commission's 2015 Report on Turkey's political and economic developments and prospects, next week in Strasbourg, must examine the situation more seriously than before.
(../..)
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EU Rapporteur on Enlargment Strategy, maistream German MEP Elmar Brok, speaking to "EuroFora", welcomed the proposal made earlier this week by French President Nicolas Sarkozy for the EU to"start Now Talks with Turkey to create a common Economic and Security area", instead of full Accession, at a period when Ankara looks more and more unfit and/or unwilling to respect EU conditions.
- "For Europe to have strong Political will, it must stop dilutiing itself in an endless Enlargement. It must have borders...Diversities enrich, on the condition that they don't undermine European Cohesion, and don't weaken EU Unity", Sarkozy stressed.
- "Countries like Turkey share a part of common destiny with Europe, with which they have a vocation to build a Privileged Relation, to be closely associated, but not to become Member of the EU" : "Noone respects his friends by telling them lies. Noone respects his friends by making them promises that will be never kept", he added.
That's why "we'd better start, from now, negotiating with Turkey to create a common Economic and Security area", Sarkozy proposed.
Significantly, the French President was repeatedly and largely applauded by EU citizens, 3 times, when he made the Turkey point, (strategically placed between Europe's "Political Will" and its cultural heritage, historically open to mutually enriching dialogue with all the World, but never diluted).
- "We could propose such a great ambition also to Russia, which must not be percieved as an Adversary of Europe, but as a Partner. Thus, we'd create a wide area, of more than 800 Million inhabitants, sharing the same Security, the same Prosperity", he concluded.
Sarkozy's move was anounced at the eve of a Franco-German Top meeting with Chancellor Angie Merkel in Berlin on Sunday, to jointly launch the EU Elections campain, after an EU Summit at nearby Prague, to launch a new kind of relations, called "Eastern Partnership", with neighboring countries such as Urkaine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaidjan, etc, (to which Russia, reportedly, is not - and does not want to be - included).
As for Ukraine, which has already expressed her wish to join the EU in future, "Kiev will have a special place, and a very important role to play", replied earlier this week in Strasbourg, to an "EuroFora" question EU Chairman in office , Czech vice-Prime Minister Alexander Vodra.
- "This direction is more Realistic for Turkey than Accession negotiations", reacted immediately EU Parliament's Rapporteur for Enlargment Strategy, mainstream German MEP Elmar Brok, commenting Sarkozy's idea for "EuroFora"
Particularly "as far as it concerns the respect of EU Rules by both sides", he added, hinting at Turkey's now obvious inability and/or unwillingness to abide with EU Acquis, EU Commitments (fex. on Cyprus, etc), and European Democracy/Human Rights rules. (Comp. infra).
Brok added that, in his view, a similar proposal might be made also to Ukraine and other neighbouring Countries, regardless if they have, or not, a "European vocation". This would not necessarily mean that there couldn't be any accession prospects at all." for all the countries that might be included in this area, according to Brok. But it's preferable, particularly for Turkey, "because it's a more Realistic approach than full Membership".
On this point, Sarkozy's proposal, (which he'll share with German Chancellor Merkel), seems more crystal-clear.
- "Turkey does not fullfil EU Criteria, and will never fullfil EU Criteria" on Human Rights, Democracy and Rule of Law. "Some have been lying to Ankara, but we must tell the Truth, and have honest and close relations with her", said meanwhile to "EuroFora" on the same issue also the President of EU Parliament's largest Group of MEPs (ChristianDemocrats/EPP), Joseph Daul.
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"Hot" Debate at EU Parliament reveals CHANGE of mood towards "Suspension" of EU - Tukey talks.
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Earlier this week, many MEPs, and even some of those who were previously in favor of Turkey's controversial EU bid, strongly criticized the persistance and even aggravation of serious Human Rights violations in the country, that ECHR continues to "unanimously" condemn ":
- "After winning a big victory in the latest Local Elections, the pro-Kurdish party DTP almost doubled its Elected Mayors from 52 to 98", but afterwards "more than 400 politicians were thrown to Prison and prosecuted" by the Turkish Authorities, denounced on behalf of the ChristianDemocrat/EPP Group, Belgian MEP Frieda Brepoels.
At the same time, "more than 1.500 Children are closed in Turkish Prisons", she added. "What will the EU Commission do" against these facts ?
- "Turkey appears to be at greater Distance away from Copenhagen Criteria after 4 Years of accession Negotiations, than when they started !", denounced on behalf of the Liberal Group, German MEP Alexander Lambsdorf.
"On the central issue of Press Freedom, Critical Journalists face obstacles for their accreditation, others are prosecuted, condemned, fined and/or jailed, Media blocked or closed", he denounced.
- "EU Made 2 grave Mistakes with Turkey : To start accession negotiations, and to continue them", despite everything, criticized Dutch MEP Bastian Belder, on behalf of the Ind/Dem group.