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Home arrow In Brief arrow Turkish Economy Falling Down again, in a Context which is No more that of 1999/2001...

Turkish Economy Falling Down again, in a Context which is No more that of 1999/2001...

Written by ACM
Monday, 18 May 2015
bad_economic_trend_in_dark_context__red_version_400


*A News-Viewpoint/- Falling growth, Serious Trade Deficit, Higher Inflation, and constantly Growing Unemployment, are among the factors which obviously push towards more Social Tensions and Unrest in Turkey :


F.ex., among others, instead of the more than +10 % of Growth that had been reached in a few Past years, now Turkey struggles with only 2,9%. But, given the State's policy to push for more and more Births, Turkey generaly needs at least 5% of Growth in order to absorb the number of Youngsters arriving each year at the Labour Market, (unless it exports them to Europe via Mass Migration)...


In addition, "an unexpected Leap" in Turkey's "current account Deficit", reportedly "caused by a severe Fall in Exports", "surprised" the markets this May, which have seen, in general, "the Slowdown to have Intensified in 2015"


Thus, Unemployment, rising steadily during the last 5 Years, reached almost 12 % at the beginning of 2015, i.e. the Highest level since before 2010, affecting more than 3,3 Millions of workless aged "15 - 64", (while among Young people aged 15 - 24, the Unemployment has passed over 20%).


The problem is that, at the same time, Inflation jumped up to more than + 7,63% annualy, while Consumers' Prices augmented + 1,63% only on April, (fuelled also by a Devaluation of the Turkish Lira, whose Weakening makes Imports more Expensive), with reportedly "Record High Prices for Food", etc.


To the point that experienced observers were led to count on "Informal" Social Aid networks for the "worst affected" among the extending number of needy.
Recently, this goes on almost Every Day, confirming a gradual Trend towards a Worsening of the situation : F.ex., Lira stood at 2.5785 against US Dollar last Friday evening, but immediately Fell down to 2,5830 for 1 USDollar Today early Morning, while, on the contrary, Turkish Government's 10-year Bonds yield rose from 8,96 % on Friday, up to 8,99 % this Monday, persisting to slowly but continuously restrict the money available in the market, as Turkish State's Deficit may become Higher than the almost - 9 Billions USA $ predicted now by Ankara.


Thus, among various other concrete examples, 2 Turkish Factories assembling Italian and French Cars for "Fiat" and "Renault", still "remained" Blocked Yesterday, "as (Turkish) Workers protested employment conditions", reported Reuters earlier this Monday.


If these recent Trends persist longer, the aggravation of Economic and Social problems in Turkey, (given also the current overall Context in its Surrounding Area), may become, sooner or later, Worse even than the 1999-2001 Big "Krach", from which, controversial Economist Dervis, a long-time Global bodies' Bureaucrat, struggled to get Turkey out, thanks to IMF Austerity, profiting from an unprecedented Mass Destruction of unsustainable Traditional Industry after Izmit area's Historic Earthquake, which notoriously Killed more than 30 Thousands of mainly Poor People, and from an equally unprecedented massive influx of EU Funds, thanks to a controversial attribution of a Status of EU "Accession Candidate" to Ankara then, (etc).


But, Today, on  2015, none of those exceptional factors of the Past can't exist, no more, with a more Critical than ever EU Parliament elected last May 2014, and  particularly after the recent British Elections, where a strong Majority of British People voted for even more EU Financial Austerity and Mass Immigration Restrictions, earlier this Month...


In this new context, EU Parliament's forthcoming Debates and Votes on EU Commission's 2015 Report on Turkey's political and economic developments and prospects, next week in Strasbourg, must examine the situation more seriously than before.

 

(../..)

 

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 sarko_merkel_mieux

The official presentation of a "Program" respecting People's choices voted in the June 7, 2009 EU Elections, to be debated in EU Council and EU Parliament during its 1st Session on July in Strasbourg, is the No 1 Priority, according to Democratic principles, for the Franco-German axis, said the main winners at the ballot box, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angie Merkel.

They stressed  that the New EU Commission's President must have a "Program" in favor of an EU which "protects" its Citizens, regulates financial markets and aims at a "Political" Europe" : a wording they have used as incompatible with Turkey's controversial EU bid.

They also declared ready for a "political" endorsment of "Mr. Barroso's candidacy" in June's EU Council, considering that an official decision would have to be made after EU Parliament's debates and votes, possibly from next month (July), with the legally necessary final acceptance shortly after Lisbon Treaty's entry into force, hoped for September or October.


- "A Program, and Mr. Barroso" : This resumes, in substance, the anouncements made by Sarkozy and Merkel, on the question of current EU Commission's President, Barroso's declared wish to succeed to himself for a second mandate, to be extended during the following 5 years.

 In their 1st meeting after EU Elections, they observed that "the Franco-German axis counted in European Elections' campaign... But, we both keep a realistic view : We saw the number of those who abstained, and we must absolutely give them an answer. We also see the disilusionment of an important number of Europeans vis a vis Europe, and we are aware of the responsibilities we have".

sarko

 - The "Duty" of the new EU Commission's President, after June 7, 2009 EU Elections' result, "is to act for a Europe which protects the Europeans, to commit himself into working for a better Regulation of Financial transactions, ... and to have a Political will for Europe", underlined Sarkozy.

Therefore, "we have asked M. Barroso... to clarify, to officialy present the intentions he has", he anounced.

- "We want to speak also about the Programme", explained Merkel.

- "It's important that for the next EU Parliament's mandate (2009-2014) we take the right Decisions for Europe.  Obviously on Persons, but mainly Decisions on Issues", she stressed.

- "It's not simply a question of a Person, it's also a question of a Programme". We are "really asking Mr. Barroso to commit himself on a Program, and on Principles, on Values", Sarkozy added.

EU President-in-office, Czech Prime Minister Jan Fischer, accepted the Franco-German stance :

- "Barroso must present his Programme. The Czech Presidency agrees with that", Fischer reportedly said later, after meeting Sarkozy.

But Press reports from Brussels claimed that Barroso had preferred to be officially appointed by EU Council since June, (i.e. next week), "because this was implied by the current Treaty of Nice, according to him", and considered any delay until the possible ratification of the new, Lisbon Treaty on September/October, as "undemocratic".

- "At any case, independently of what Germany and France ask, it's also EU Parliament's wish". "We shall propose Mr Barroso's candidacy... But even in the framework of Nice Treaty, EU Parliament has to be associated in this Decision", the French President observed.

If this is correctly done, then "we support Mr. Barroso's candidature", and "if the (EU) Parliament agrees, we might ratify this decision since July", (i.e. next month), they both said.

smerkem_400

- "France and Germany support Baroso's candidacy, But we want to speak also on the Program. We believe that this Program should be established in close cooperation with EU Parliament, and that's why we have followed an appropriate way", said Merkel.  - If EU Parliament wants, this election can take place on July,  but this must be done in full agreement.

- "We shall support Mr. Barroso's candidacy, without doubt", said Sarkozy. "But we have asked from Mr. Barroso, as I told him yesterday, to put into detail.. his intentions, at the eve of his 2nd mandate, if the situation avails itself.


    France and Germany "don't want to take an Official Legal Decision by writting" during "the next (EU) Council" (on June 18-19), declared Sarkozy.  Because they prefer, at this stage, only "a Political decision" on June, "so that we (EU Council) can work together with EU Parliament", which starts to meet only Next Month, since July in Srasbourg, "leaving a Legal decision by writting for later".

    - "If the Conditions are fuillfiled in EU Parliament, we (EU Council) are ready to give the agreement and make it offficial", said Merkel

    - "But, now we are working in the base of Nice Treaty. If tommorow we want to work in the spirit of Lisbon Treaty, we have to find a proper way", she added.

    - "Of course it's Legally complicated, because we are going to make a Political proposal to the forthcoming Council, for an EU Commission's President, on the basis of Nice Treaty : So, we (EU Council) will not appoint the Commissioners. Only the President.  If EU Parliament agrees, it could endorse this position on July", explained Sarkozy.

    But, on Autumn, "if Ireland ratifies Lisbon Treaty, there will be, at any case, a 2nd Decision, to appoint the Commission's President, this time on the basis of Lisbon treaty, and then, we, the EU Member States, would have to appoint (also) the EU Commissioners", he added.

    As for the precise Timing :  - "Everything is suspended until the Irish vote... Now, we must all make everything possible to help Ireland to say "Yes"" to Lisbon Treaty... The Irish Referendum, ..will take place either on September or on October. It's a Question which depends on the Irish. And,  then, we shall have the Choice of the Candidates for the permanent Institutions of Europe".

    However, "if Ireland says No, we, French and Germans, have to assume our responsibilities, and we'll do so", he concluded.

    But British and Swedish governments were reportedly eager to have a final EU Council decision on Barroso since this month, on June's European Council. While the other EU Member Countries are divided, several of them preferring to wait until EU Parliament pronounces itself, on July, and/or until Lisbon Treaty might be ratified by Ireland at the beginning of the Autumn. Barroso's current mandate ends on November.

    There are also various, contradictory and/or unpredictable reactions inside EU Parliament vis a vis Barroso's wish to continue a 2nd mandate, because many MEPs are openly or secretly opposed, reluctant, or hesitating.

    In the biggest EU Countries, as France and Germany, EU Citizens voted on June 2009 EU Elections for a renovated, non-technocratic but Political Europe which cares for its Citizens, with an Identity, Values and Borders, declared incompatible with Turkey's controversial EU bid, by mainstream, pro-European Governing Parties. Similar choices were also supported in several other small or medium EU Countries.

    On the contrary, whenever, in other Countries, Governing and other mainstream Parties didn't make these choices or eluded them, EU Citizens massively voted for euro-Sceptics whenever they were the only ones to to promise anti-bureacratic change and oppose Turkey's demand to enter into the EU, (f.ex. in the UK, Netherlands, etc).

    It's seems to be an Open Question whether Sarkozy and Merkel's conditions will be really accepted by Barroso, who was appointed on 2004 in a different political context, (with Socialist Prime Ministers in Germany, France, etc), had rejected in the Past the idea of EU becoming "equal to the USA" as "ridiculous", and pushed for Turkey's contoversial EU bid, trying to "soften" or contain the changes desired by the People who voted for Merkel and Sarkozy with another policy vis a vis Turkey on 2005 in Germany and on 2007 in France, as they did all over Europe on 2009.

    In addition to many EPP Governments, it's 3 remaining Socialist Prime Ministers : Gordon Brown in the UK, Zapatero in Spain, and Socrates in Prortugal, who support Barroso, as well as Liberal Swedish Prime Minister Reinfeldt. But their Parties lost the June 2009 EU Elections.

    Questioned whether there was still "Time" for "other" possible "Candidates", Sarkozy and Merkel did not deny, nor made any comment on that, but simply said that "it's not for us to make publicity for any candidates. We anounced our choice ("A Program, and Mr. Barroso"). But we respect any other candidate".

    Among various other names cited are former Belgian Prime Minister Verhofstadt, former UNO's Human Rights Commissioner Mary Robinson of Ireland, Italian former EU Commission's vice-President Monti, etc. Meanwhile, Luxembourg's PM Juncker, (who had been unanimously accepted by EU Council for EU Commission's Presidency on 2004, but refused), announced his intention to resign from "EuroGroup"'s Chair. Thus, he might be available for another Top EU job.

    As "EuroFora"'s "opinion" said (See publication dated 9/6/09) : - "If the current candidates (i.e. Barroso, etc) to the Top EU jobs promise and guarantee to respect People's democratic choices, then, it's OK".

"Otherwise, Europe must find new candidates, really motivated and able to implement these democratic choices of the People."

    Because, "in Democracy, the forthcoming choices for EU's Top Jobs,...should be made according to EU Citizens' Votes in June 7, 2009 European Elections, and main EU Governments' strategic policies".
        

***

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